VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(10-02-2021, 02:59 PM)vbin Wrote:

(10-02-2021, 02:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-02-2021, 01:57 PM)bankerboy Wrote: Agree. Will keep it a bit longer then say goodbye....


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I am going to lose my shares to covered calls but I will watch for an entry this winter.  I am pretty confident  demand will be very strong next summer.  I am pretty confident OPEC+ is capable of adding to supply.  Can they pump enough if the US producers remain conservative?  There is no oil shortage but there could be a production shortage.  Too many institutions that can't invest due to ESG so it has to be more than good for oil companys prices to run vs oil prices.

The full re-opening still haven't happened and we are already hearing about shortages.

What is long term? 20 years from now we will still be talking oil and it's dependency. It has no viable alternative yet.

Just depends if production increases because there is time for that since the reopen got seriously delayed.  There is 50 years worth of oil in the ground with today's tech.  If this is a sure thing why is the largest US producer down 25% from a few years ago and underperforming SPY?  I am guessing the market knows what happens if oil spikes.  

IMO longterm is 20 years and it will be booms and busts like the last 20.  Predictions are free and I think XOM could see 80 within a few years if foreign oil doesn't wreck it first.  Whomever steps up the fracking early might be the big winner.  We'll watch the rig counts.  I haven't checked that lately.

Oil isn't dead, but oil stock investing is wounded forever unless something drastically changes.  Institutions can invest in growth forever.  That's been working fine.  3X as good as oil 90% of the last 10 years.