VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(10-02-2021, 11:48 AM)bankerboy Wrote: XLE has given me a good return as I bought in November 2020 but long term oil seems to be a trap. I just got lucky and played an oversold commodity at the right time.


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Commodities are VERY tough.  You have to have the courage to buy when they are truly beaten down, and the good sense to not be greedy and lighten up some when they fly.  I'm not suggesting you have to sell out all at once but if you hold for years you will likely give it all back and then some.  God help you if you chase a commodity that already ran and convince yourself this time it's different, it's a super cycle for sure.  90% of commodities have extreme bust cycles at the first sign of a recession threat.  Oil may well run to $150 but that talk makes me nervous as it will kill world economic growth.