VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(01-26-2021, 03:02 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:31 PM)EricL Wrote:

(01-26-2021, 12:00 PM)vbin Wrote: Soudis rig count could be a bad sign if they expect economy to still not have the pre-covid kind of demand ?

Or it could be a good sign because they don't have enough cash flow to run rigs...

The probability of that is very very low. I don't like this price so trying to understand more. Lol


What oil price are you targeting by this summer? XLE plunging today.

Just sold an XOM put.  Don't get too excited though.  I'm just hedging my debate with Eric.  He can say "I told ya", then I can tell him "yeah well I made some money."  Scroll back to post xxx 

Actually it's an attempt to swoop in and grab a dividend and the premium was decent.  Closest thing to a long move in oil for me in awhile.  My ENB shares and put sales aren't really an oil pay.  I've been waiting for oil to stabilize a bit, and XOM or RDS to pull back off the quick run they had. Truthfully RDS was my first choice but the dividend is garbage after the SP run. I need more than a 3.7% for my risk. I am never going to fell comfortable enough being long oil so XOM seems more rational to me. They should cut, but they won't if our collective view of the next few years is at all accurate.

If you want my guess on oil prices (and that is all it is). Won't stay above $60 for more than a few days by end of summer. $53-53 will be more "normal". I won't be even a little surprised if we dip to 45ish the next month or so. My thesis for any prayer of oil at $60 is the world believes at least half of the first world countries will be 50% vaccinated by summer. That would of course be heavily weighted towards those at most risk to Covid. The fear of being vaxxed will slowly dissipate. That's a good thing for oil, and humanity in general.