Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
VBIN's oil stock thread.
#71
(01-05-2021, 06:28 PM)vbin Wrote:
(01-05-2021, 03:49 PM)EricL Wrote: I'm not convinced that this cut is voluntary. 

Saudi's have had rig count and spending cuts just like everyone else, and may not be able to produce what they claim. Rig count has been cut in half since Q1 of 2020, and oil production has dropped by ~1.5 MMbpd already. Wouldn't it be likely that production drops another similar amount over the next 12 months? 



They save face by announcing a "surprise" million barrel per day cut, impact the crude price by doing so, and then hide the fact they can't produce as much as previously touted.

Still bullish here...
Why production would drop by same amount over next 12 months? Market is speculating for economies to open up then the demand should go up.

Still cut means Saudis see further drop in demand? Why?  Unless your theory is right that they are not able to ramp up quickly which. I really doubt is the case.
And the US political picture may change this week.  You might get those higher oil prices this year.  I bet the market will see through the hysteria if it happens.  An election doesn't make oil go away.  I do wish I hadn't sold some of my over-valued renewables stocks already though.  Smile
Reply
#72
VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks. I would definitely do that with a portion. I realize you are underwater on some of your shares. You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two. I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant. When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time. I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid. My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher. High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium. I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks. You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.
Reply
#73
(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks. I would definitely do that with a portion. I realize you are underwater on some of your shares. You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two. I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant. When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time. I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid. My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher. High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium. I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks. You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.
Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.
Reply
#74
(01-17-2021, 07:40 PM)vbin Wrote:
(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks.  I would definitely do that with a portion.  I realize you are underwater on some of your shares.  You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two.  I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant.  When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time.  I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid.  My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher.  High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium.  I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks.  You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.
Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.
It tends to work better when I stagger them.  No need to have three contracts sold all at once.  Also need to wait for a stock to come off the bottom if it is severely beaten down.  Doesn't work nearly as well when the VIX is low either.  Tough call when or if to start.
Reply
#75
(01-18-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(01-17-2021, 07:40 PM)vbin Wrote:
(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks.  I would definitely do that with a portion.  I realize you are underwater on some of your shares.  You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two.  I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant.  When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time.  I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid.  My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher.  High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium.  I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks.  You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.
Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.
It tends to work better when I stagger them.  No need to have three contracts sold all at once.  Also need to wait for a stock to come off the bottom if it is severely beaten down.  Doesn't work nearly as well when the VIX is low either.  Tough call when or if to start.
Yeah that was stupid of me to be greedy for pennies when XOM was at lows. Lesson Learned.
Reply
#76
(01-19-2021, 02:44 AM)vbin Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(01-17-2021, 07:40 PM)vbin Wrote:
(01-15-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks.  I would definitely do that with a portion.  I realize you are underwater on some of your shares.  You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two.  I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant.  When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time.  I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid.  My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher.  High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium.  I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks.  You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.
Oh man I tried that with XOM and it worked pretty well till November when it ran up and 2 of my calls were ITM. I rolled them forward and they are still ITM with the recent run up. I plan to roll them forward again.

So not doing it with the rest positions. I simply took some profits on other positions( choppy markets can a be signal for tops) Though I believe this is the start of oil recovery and it will go long way.
It tends to work better when I stagger them.  No need to have three contracts sold all at once.  Also need to wait for a stock to come off the bottom if it is severely beaten down.  Doesn't work nearly as well when the VIX is low either.  Tough call when or if to start.
Yeah that was stupid of me to be greedy for pennies when XOM was at lows. Lesson Learned.
Reply
#77
That's how we learn and establish our personal rules. It's why I dont like a wheel strategy that is on cruise control. Over sold or bought usually matters. And of course there will be a lot of years when the market goes sideways or slightly down for years. Covered calls look attractive then. It's been years since you could get by with selling them on your entire port without regretting it soon. I really do like to stagger them though. It's a lot easier to swallow if you still have shares running.
Reply




Users browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)