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VBIN's oil stock thread.
#21
(11-09-2020, 05:42 PM)vbin Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 05:07 PM)EricL Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 04:21 PM)vbin Wrote: Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60.

A successful vaccine= a return to a more normal economy = more traveling = more oil demand.
Thank you Eric. I totally missed that while being occupied at work. I hope vaccine does works out for the world. But in really not sure how effective it will be against mutations of the virus plus production and logistic difficulties.

I guess still it's not too late to add more oil. May be should buy leap calls. Lol.
The accelerated shotgun approach with the vaccine was a good plan, whether it works out fully of not.  A half dozen major companies working on their own recipe.  Hired to grow cultures well before trials are half over.  That's as good as it will get for preparedness.  If some of it ends up in the dumpster it's seems like a prudent risk to try and save potentially millions around the word.    

And LEAP calls probably are the best way to play oil with less capital tied up, but you really have to be patient for a near the bottom of the cycle.  IMO it's a horrible idea to average down on any options, especially a commodity due to the shelf life.  You time it right or you don't.  Save the averaging down for high quality growth stocks.  Holding for years can save you from yourself.  Smile
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#22
(11-09-2020, 09:29 PM)stockguru Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 09:14 PM)divmenow Wrote: I don't care if OIL goes up a 100 percent from here, I still wont own it lol

Oil is just one sector I stay away from unless I trade it. Never can I own it long term. It's just not a consistent grower for me year over year. I know people have owned it for 10 years and are still down on their investment.

Sure we got a vaccine news but that doesn't mean everyone just going to set sail on a cruise tomorrow lol

In another week the oils will be right back in a downtrend. Lets not forget Biden is bad for the oll stocks. Sorry to be such a bear lol

I tend to agree with that. Oil is ok if you able to pick the bottom and ride it up 10-15% and then get it before the next drop. 

Wind, Solar and alternative energy is the place to be for growth and over the next several + years. 

Some oil names are starting to invest in other sectors like BP. Those might do well over time, but the ones who are restricted to just oil will be dinosaurs and struggle.
Solar is renewable flavor of the year.  That's all good but the better ones are up 5X in 2020 with little to no profit.    That is not likely a great hold for a few years situation.  They'll look better to me some month next year when the market gets smoked.  You can try to MOMO them right now of course, but you better be nimble if it's much of a position.
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#23
Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:


.pdf   2020.Q3 Goehring & Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf (Size: 463.62 KB / Downloads: 5)

Well worth a read for those considering energy.
My website: DGI For The DIY
Also on: Facebook - Twitter - Seeking Alpha
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#24
(11-10-2020, 10:11 AM)EricL Wrote: Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:



Well worth a read for those considering energy.
Long article but I read a lot of it.  It reminds me of a lot of S.A. articles.  IMO only the foolish consider it a worthless commodity going forward.  I've lost a lot of money over the past three decades believing that is all I needed to know.  Just keep the faith and my day would come.  Where I screwed up was thinking it was a long-term buy and hold investment like a blue chip DGI stock.  It simply wasn't during most of my investment lifetime. 

VBIN is fairly deep in XOM at $60.  It looked like a good deal to me as well but I bailed and placed my capital elsewhere when it didn't appear to be so.  I do believe XOM might return to $60 in 3 or 5 years.  If the dividend holds it would be a decent enough return IMO.  He needs it to go to $100 in five years for it to be a truly good investment.  Opportunity cost matters in an epic bull market.  You have to make money when we aren't in a five year sideways market.

It's not a small problem that "ethical" investors have shunned oil for years.  What would change that?  I definitely don't invest like that, but if the millennials adhere to the narrative it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It doesn't matter if oil goes to $100 BBL if fund managers won't buy the stock. It really is about market sentiment and that's not a original thought for sure.  60yr+ old plus investors will keep the faith alive for now, and write lots of compelling articles.  Convincing young investors is the task at hand and they just voted in an anti-oil  president.  He was quite clear he believes oil will become a smaller part of the energy future and he has some influence on that outcome.  He is wrong in the near-term but we'll see how much that matters.
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#25
(11-10-2020, 10:50 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(11-10-2020, 10:11 AM)EricL Wrote: Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:



Well worth a read for those considering energy.
Long article but I read a lot of it.  It reminds me of a lot of S.A. articles.  IMO only the foolish consider it a worthless commodity going forward.  I've lost a lot of money over the past three decades believing that is all I needed to know.  Just keep the faith and my day would come.  Where I screwed up was thinking it was a long-term buy and hold investment like a blue chip DGI stock.  It simply wasn't during most of my investment lifetime. 

VBIN is fairly deep in XOM at $60.  It looked like a good deal to me as well but I bailed and placed my capital elsewhere when it didn't appear to be so.  I do believe XOM might return to $60 in 3 or 5 years.  If the dividend holds it would be a decent enough return IMO.  He needs it to go to $100 in five years for it to be a truly good investment.  Opportunity cost matters in an epic bull market.  You have to make money when we aren't in a five year sideways market.

It's not a small problem that "ethical" investors have shunned oil for years.  What would change that?  I definitely don't invest like that, but if the millennials adhere to the narrative it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It doesn't matter if oil goes to $100 BBL if fund managers won't buy the stock. It really is about market sentiment and that's not a original thought for sure.  60yr+ old plus investors will keep the faith alive for now, and write lots of compelling articles.  Convincing young investors is the task at hand and they just voted in an anti-oil  president.  He was quite clear he believes oil will become a smaller part of the energy future and he has some influence on that outcome.  He is wrong in the near-term but we'll see how much that matters.
Fenders XOM isnt the only thing I have but it's the largest. Oxy at $15, dcp, Wes, xle, psx. Excluding xom and oxy, I am making money in rest of the oil as of now. I made the mistake of going in too fast in xom.

Why you lost money in oil in last 3 decades? Xom has performed very well, if you bought it 3 decades ago and held on to it and a lot of other oil companies as well.
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#26
I haven't owned much XOM over the years. I always made similar mistakes though. Oil drops for a year and I'd start averaging in. A few years later the company is BK or just struggles for a decade. DO, RIG and SDRL were the worst. KMI still down about 75%. Gave up on anything buy majors. XOM BP and RDS wasn't rewarding the past three years. I have made money on a few oil stocks but I'll never invest enough to ever get even. I can't really think of any commodity I am confident will match the SPY over time. They are tricky.
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#27
14 million barrel draw from today's API report, compared with a 5YR average build of 4 million barrels for this time of year.

#Crude -5.147 #Cushing -1.17 #Gasoline -3.297 #Dist -5.619
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#28
(11-10-2020, 10:11 AM)EricL Wrote: Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:



Well worth a read for those considering energy.

Eric, Thank you so much for sharing. Very interesting read. What oil stocks or ETFs are you looking at? How are you planning to invest in oil? I checked out your website but did not see anything specific to current events with oil.
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#29
I think Eric is currently in CVX, XOM, KMI in his income growth port? I think OXY got booted. What have you owned in the past.

Do either of you know what % of oil is used by aviation and how much of that is passenger? It would seem that ground transportation dwarfs it but maybe not?
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#30
(11-11-2020, 02:51 AM)vbin Wrote:
(11-10-2020, 10:11 AM)EricL Wrote: Here's a new oil market analysis from one of the research firms I follow:



Well worth a read for those considering energy.

Eric, Thank you so much for sharing. Very interesting read. What oil stocks or ETFs are you looking at? How are you planning to invest in oil? I checked out your website but did not see anything specific to current events with oil.

I'm pretty boring with my investments, as I hold CVX, EOG, KMI, and XOM in my DGI account. Also own ENB and OKE in another account, and EGY for a speculative position. For my DGI account, energy is currently a 5.6% weighting, you can see how much of each position I hold about 3/4 of the way down this page.

I don't follow ETF's much, but just looking at the top holdings of XLE, I think that would be a reasonable approach, as CVX/XOM/KMI/EOG represent about 50% of the assets.
My website: DGI For The DIY
Also on: Facebook - Twitter - Seeking Alpha
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