Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
VBIN's oil stock thread.
#11
Quote:U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 484.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 18% above the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 14.7 million barrels last week.

Another 14.7 million barrels gone from storage. A few more weeks like this and the market will certainly take notice.
My website: DGI For The DIY
Also on: Facebook - Twitter - Seeking Alpha
Reply
#12
Thank you for sharing all the thoughts both of you, very informative. I have read it 3 times. @EricL seeing the production go low makes me more confident on the fact that there CAN be a super cycle but I feel the timing to roll back production if prices go up is still a speculation of speculation. Fenders is saying OPEC countries can ramp up production quickly. I have no idea how quickly.

Also there is a question on how long this virus will last so far my wife's thoughts have been accurate on virus( I feel women in general have a good sense of situation, as they try to be more realistic). She is betting covid going into 2022, so are my medicine friends + people won't bunker down but won't mingle like before either. So any money I put in oil, I am ready to forget it till 2023-2025 and collect dividend( if that will still exist).

Human tendency is to underestimate or over estimate. We underestimated covid and I do feel now we are underestimating the supply demand problem that will be cussed for oil.
Reply
#13
All I am really suggesting is don't throw down with both fists. I know you love your oil stocks. You can spread your oil bets out. Invest some on the upside and that is not here for awhile. There is no doubt there will be times when oil stocks run. Load up and hold for 20 years? Probably not a good idea anymore. There are clearly better options on a risk reward basis. You will likely just ride the tide up and down 4-5 times because they are cyclical. Swing trade that! The dividends are just icing when you happen to get them.
Reply
#14
https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1324362536024723458

Quote:#Brazil: September oil production was 2.907mbpd, -5.8% m/m, -0.7% y/y
My website: DGI For The DIY
Also on: Facebook - Twitter - Seeking Alpha
Reply
#15
It's November and my windows are open all week. Sell all your natty gas now! Smile Kidding of course but I did step out of RDS on the bounce. It's my opinion oil hits it's seasonal low on this rona spike. European shutdowns perhaps, and we'll get through the worst in the next few months. Please let me be right that it fades after this. I intend a few put sales on majors with a bit of pullback for my re-entry. RDS actually closing a refinery. I would think that helps the competition?
Reply
#16
Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60.
Reply
#17
(11-09-2020, 04:21 PM)vbin Wrote: Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60.

A successful vaccine= a return to a more normal economy = more traveling = more oil demand.
My website: DGI For The DIY
Also on: Facebook - Twitter - Seeking Alpha
Reply
#18
(11-09-2020, 05:07 PM)EricL Wrote:
(11-09-2020, 04:21 PM)vbin Wrote: Oh man what a run in oil today. Why? Isn't Biden has been criticizing oil? I was hoping it will come down and I can add more. My average on xom is still $~60.

A successful vaccine= a return to a more normal economy = more traveling = more oil demand.
Thank you Eric. I totally missed that while being occupied at work. I hope vaccine does works out for the world. But in really not sure how effective it will be against mutations of the virus plus production and logistic difficulties.

I guess still it's not too late to add more oil. May be should buy leap calls. Lol.
Reply
#19
I don't care if OIL goes up a 100 percent from here, I still wont own it lol

Oil is just one sector I stay away from unless I trade it. Never can I own it long term. It's just not a consistent grower for me year over year. I know people have owned it for 10 years and are still down on their investment.

Sure we got a vaccine news but that doesn't mean everyone just going to set sail on a cruise tomorrow lol

In another week the oils will be right back in a downtrend. Lets not forget Biden is bad for the oll stocks. Sorry to be such a bear lol
Reply
#20
(11-09-2020, 09:14 PM)divmenow Wrote: I don't care if OIL goes up a 100 percent from here, I still wont own it lol

Oil is just one sector I stay away from unless I trade it. Never can I own it long term. It's just not a consistent grower for me year over year. I know people have owned it for 10 years and are still down on their investment.

Sure we got a vaccine news but that doesn't mean everyone just going to set sail on a cruise tomorrow lol

In another week the oils will be right back in a downtrend. Lets not forget Biden is bad for the oll stocks. Sorry to be such a bear lol

I tend to agree with that. Oil is ok if you able to pick the bottom and ride it up 10-15% and then get it before the next drop. 

Wind, Solar and alternative energy is the place to be for growth and over the next several + years. 

Some oil names are starting to invest in other sectors like BP. Those might do well over time, but the ones who are restricted to just oil will be dinosaurs and struggle.
Reply




Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)