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2020 Covid-19 Recession
#31
(04-18-2020, 09:44 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-16-2020, 09:38 PM)TIKR Wrote: I know everyone knows this but I think a helpful reminder.

The average investor has underperformed the S&P 500 by ~460bps/year. DALBAR, which performs this annual study, attributes the underperformance to investors attempting to time the market and moving into and out of investments too frequently.

The best thing to do is to continue to buy and hold for the long-term, especially during market drawdowns such as the one we are currently experiencing.

Another favorite example of mine is the Magellan Fund. Peter Lynch generated 29% annualized returns during his tenure. Guess what the average investor made in his fund? The average investor lost money because they invested in and redeemed from his fund at exactly the wrong times!

Try to focus on the long-term prospects of the companies you are investing in.

Wishing you all the best out there!
Bobby

(04-18-2020, 07:12 PM)rayray Wrote: I sold bupkis : )

Did you sell it at the top?  Smile

I sold bupkis at the top too LOL


I keep it very simple and don't move a whole lot of money around--I do have some stocks I will eventually sell just haven't gotten around to it, not sure when it will happen though. I'm going to have to figure something out because my kplan moved into funds that don't throw off short/long term capital gains, I prefer share accumulation in addition to new dollars added to portfolio--so no capital gains paid out don't make me smile much--I'll probably do a non-taxable trust2trust transfer, eventually. I don't like making my own capital gains--have to be right to buy, then right to sell, then right to buy again. I'm more inclined to sell a dog--maybe as portfolio grows to a certain level I'll change it up and take money off the top of winners, maybe...who knows.

So far, during this whole covid19 mess I have one dividend suspension.

I'm a bull at heart but market downturns is what gets me excited to put money to work, these are good times to invest--the question is how long do we get to buy at depressed levels?
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#32
(04-19-2020, 09:20 AM)rayray Wrote:
(04-18-2020, 09:44 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-16-2020, 09:38 PM)TIKR Wrote: I know everyone knows this but I think a helpful reminder.

The average investor has underperformed the S&P 500 by ~460bps/year. DALBAR, which performs this annual study, attributes the underperformance to investors attempting to time the market and moving into and out of investments too frequently.

The best thing to do is to continue to buy and hold for the long-term, especially during market drawdowns such as the one we are currently experiencing.

Another favorite example of mine is the Magellan Fund. Peter Lynch generated 29% annualized returns during his tenure. Guess what the average investor made in his fund? The average investor lost money because they invested in and redeemed from his fund at exactly the wrong times!

Try to focus on the long-term prospects of the companies you are investing in.

Wishing you all the best out there!
Bobby

(04-18-2020, 07:12 PM)rayray Wrote: I sold bupkis : )

Did you sell it at the top?  Smile

I sold bupkis at the top too LOL


I keep it very simple and don't move a whole lot of money around--I do have some stocks I will eventually sell just haven't gotten around to it, not sure when it will happen though. I'm going to have to figure something out because my kplan moved into funds that don't throw off short/long term capital gains, I prefer share accumulation in addition to new dollars added to portfolio--so no capital gains paid out don't make me smile much--I'll probably do a non-taxable trust2trust transfer, eventually.

So far, during this whole covid19 mess I have one dividend suspension.

I'm a bull at heart but market downturns is what gets me excited to put money to work, these are good times to invest--the question is how long do we get to buy at depressed levels?
Depressed levels ended weeks ago.  About 20% of the SPY are at or near ATHs.  The SPY forward PE is likely well north of 20 now.  This isn't the same economy that we had last fall, nor will it be soon.  I dodged a few div suspensions and expect a few more.  I caught the dip and traded it.  I am as long equities as I should be for my age, and have plenty of cash for another dip I hope comes.  I expect one, though it's entirely possible the FED will not allow a free fall like March.  I am confident they are going to try.  My #1 concern now is small BIZ.  It's not optional.  They don't have months to help them or this is going to come unwound very shortly.  It's a lot of money.  Too much printing?  I don't know.
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#33
And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.
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#34
(04-19-2020, 10:56 AM)rayray Wrote: And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.

A U shaped economic recovery seems reasonably certain.  The market on the other hand is going to go up 1000pts a week for the rest of our lives.  I look very forward to it.  Smile
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#35
(04-19-2020, 12:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-19-2020, 10:56 AM)rayray Wrote: And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.

A U shaped economic recovery seems reasonably certain.  The market on the other hand is going to go up 1000pts a week for the rest of our lives.  I look very forward to it.  Smile

The interesting thing to me is that half of the GICS sectors are trading straight-up U or L-shaped recession priced in. Just look at NUE. Dividend Aristocrat (47 years of DGI growth) steel producer, which has managed to raise the payout through every imaginable market condition for nearly half a century, trading at 2009 lows. Many similar stories in Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and REITs. 

The other half are trading V-shaped (especially Tech), even after reporting lackluster earnings and pulling guidance. I'm not touching those. 

I still think we retest some recent lows, but the stocks that are currently down 50% from their highs aren't the ones that I think are going to take the biggest beating when that happens. In the meantime, I'm selling covered calls against my SQQQ position that's down 12%.
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#36
(04-22-2020, 09:40 PM)Otter Wrote:
(04-19-2020, 12:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-19-2020, 10:56 AM)rayray Wrote: And this is why I don't try to play the market--if I feel like I can't own a stock for 10 years I move on to something else. If we are already on the mend, leading to a V recession then I bought through it. If we get another downturn, I'll buy through that one too. U-shaped recession will give us a longer time frame to accumulate.

A U shaped economic recovery seems reasonably certain.  The market on the other hand is going to go up 1000pts a week for the rest of our lives.  I look very forward to it.  Smile

The interesting thing to me is that half of the GICS sectors are trading straight-up U or L-shaped recession priced in. Just look at NUE. Dividend Aristocrat (47 years of DGI growth) steel producer, which has managed to raise the payout through every imaginable market condition for nearly half a century, trading at 2009 lows. Many similar stories in Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and REITs. 

The other half are trading V-shaped (especially Tech), even after reporting lackluster earnings and pulling guidance. I'm not touching those. 

I still think we retest some recent lows, but the stocks that are currently down 50% from their highs aren't the ones that I think are going to take the biggest beating when that happens. In the meantime, I'm selling covered calls against my SQQQ position that's down 12%.
Ray is the only one that is going to keep his hair lol.  

There are huge inconsistencies in equity prices.  There was no proper capitulation.  It's like we were a week or two away though at the rate it fell.  I continue to sell covered calls very sparingly.  It is tempting to sell many more but there is too much risk the beaten up sectors will run 20% and never give you another chance.  Like you said, ten year lows for some.  The indexes are too dominated by a handful of companies to be a meaningful measure.
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#37
I'm not familiar with NUE but I did a 5 minute research and it does look cheap. But I also see that the stock price has been in a downward trajectory for over 2 years now, any reason for that?
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#38
(04-23-2020, 06:24 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I'm not familiar with NUE but I did a 5 minute research and it does look cheap. But I also see that the stock price has been in a downward trajectory for over 2 years now, any reason for that?

Steel price has been in a downward trend for two years. Highly cyclical business. 

You will find very few dividend aristocrats in the basic materials sector. The low margins and boom/bust nature of the industry results in few companies that can navigate the cycles successfully and continue to pay increasing returns to their shareholders. NUE and SON are the only two that I can think of, off the top of my head.
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#39
(04-23-2020, 08:36 AM)Otter Wrote:
(04-23-2020, 06:24 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I'm not familiar with NUE but I did a 5 minute research and it does look cheap. But I also see that the stock price has been in a downward trajectory for over 2 years now, any reason for that?

Steel price has been in a downward trend for two years. Highly cyclical business. 

You will find very few dividend aristocrats in the basic materials sector. The low margins and boom/bust nature of the industry results in few companies that can navigate the cycles successfully and continue to pay increasing returns to their shareholders. NUE and SON are the only two that I can think of, off the top of my head.
It's an amazing feat that XOM and CVX have also pulled it off in the energy sector.  Even a ten year run of Div raises is an accomplishment.
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#40
(04-23-2020, 08:36 AM)Otter Wrote: Steel price has been in a downward trend for two years. Highly cyclical business. 

Somehow their EPS seems to have an OK trajectory though. And that is an "meh, ok" not an "OKAY!". But still pretty decent looking earnings, at least on paper, during the past two years. I'm guessing there was some sort of a one-time fluke in 2018 though with the EPS being that high.

But yeah, this might be a company that I will be keeping my eye on if we can get a red day or two instead of the indexes going up a couple percentages daily. Big Grin
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