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2020 Covid-19 Recession
#11
(03-28-2020, 11:09 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Taking a profit early is rarely good advice and I need to remind myself on every trade.
I went short ES on 3/6 @ 5:00PM @ 2996.

Took a quick 70 points and got twitchy and bought it back. My mechanics would have gotten me out on 3/27 @ 2627

I left 300 points on the table EEK. That's 15K per contract double EEK.

Was my 1st short trade with the setup after quite a few long trades

I agree, it's why the majority of my money stays invested in positions for years, though more defensively at times like these.  This is one of those special times.  The world has never faced a pandemic like this in my lifetime, or my parents.  

Those of active on the forum shared some ideas on the active thread the past few weeks.  Some restaurants truly went to BK like prices in some cases.  I bought four, and all four ran 20-30% in 48HRS so I sold.  Another 48HRs pass and 3 of them suspended their dividend.  They crashed and I can re-enter most of them now for 25% off again.  You can call it gambling if you like, but I was willing to hold all those restaurants for years.  I'll prove that when I begin averaging into a few of them soon enough.  Did the same thing with a half a dozen non-restaurant stocks.  I'd like a little clarity before I get too deep in companies with damaged balance sheets and reduced credit ratings.  That seems rational to me.  Meanwhile 50% of my port remains in Pharma, Med equipment, UTES, defense contractors etc.  I'll sleep a little better because that basket is notably less volatile than SPY.  

Several active forum members have thrown in the towel and own no investments at all.  I have no plans to do that, before the age of 80 anyway.  I have spent 90% of my career investing just as Ray does.  Nothing wrong with that because I truly believe the US market will go up and to the left over time.  That said, I will learn and adapt to whatever the market throws at me.  I won't stand by and passively take a 50% beating when most anyone knows it's coming.  For now, I am going to remain defensively invested, partially hedged, and I'll hope I get more chances to fade the rally every time the market gives me a temporary 20% profit in the matter of days.  Only way that happens is if I am willing to buy some fear.  

We'll all get through this our own way.  None of us posting this thread have chosen the same path.  I truly do hope we all succeed.   I think we are all hoping for Ray's short term recovery.  I know that would please me for sure.
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#12
(03-28-2020, 11:47 AM)MikeWa Wrote: This may be useful to some to understand what is happening.

A glossary of the Federal Reserve's full arsenal of 'bazookas'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glossary-...37473.html
A breakdown of the Fed's arsenal of tools launched to provide liquidity to the economy in the wake of the coronavirus.
I've been researching this subject lately and it's insane.  The perma-bears have been warning us this will happen and end bad.  The question is when?  Long ago I stressed our total $4T FED deficit.  That is going to be six months work now. Normal recessions clear out the companies who don't adhere to proper business practices, and here we are.
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#13
DGI portfolio down 19%
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#14
(03-28-2020, 12:36 PM)NilesMike Wrote: DGI portfolio down 19%

Thanks Mike, honesty is good.  I am real close to that number.  I had to fight my way back to that last week because I was invested in a couple of the wrong sectors.
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#15
(03-28-2020, 12:47 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(03-28-2020, 12:36 PM)NilesMike Wrote: DGI portfolio down 19%

Thanks Mike, honesty is good.  I am real close to that number.  I had to fight my way back to that last week because I was invested in a couple of the wrong sectors.

If this is where go up from, that's not a bad hit. My bonds are up about 13%ish through the drop and my options and futures scalping has helped out a bunch.

I don't mind being down 19% as long as the economy firms up and goes forward. A long grind back up would actually help my divvy drip as we go.
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#16
That is usually what happens eventually. I don't expect it soon.
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#17
My portfolio is currently down

-16.37% from my market peak

-17.13% YTD


EDIT: I did not figure out what the numbers were at market lows--it was bad

        Also, did not figure out what the numbers would have been if I haven't been buying through it--it would have been really bad
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#18
(03-29-2020, 07:56 AM)rayray Wrote: My portfolio is currently down

-16.37% from my market peak

-17.13% YTD


EDIT: I did not figure out what the numbers were at market lows--it was bad

        Also, did not figure out what the numbers would have been if I haven't been buying through it--it would have been really bad
I think I was down about 30% just a week ago.  I no longer have any significant new money to invest.  Some of us trade options in a conservative manner.  The volatility is historically insane and makes it as easy as it will ever be to skim $200-500 or even more several times a week with little risk if you are patient.  I can buy some beaten down stocks with that money.  It's my only way to buy some of this fear and add shares to high quality companies.  

I got caught with shares of oil, life insurance, basic materials and airlines.  I was not at all over-weighted but I got crushed REALLY bad.  Mostly staying the course but I chickened out on oil.  I strongly suspect I can buy a little oil back when some of the smaller ones start folding.  I don't want to be around when majors cut dividends.  They don't have the cash to buy up the little companies this time unless they suspend their dividends.  It's just additional risk I don't need.
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#19
Get ready for the worst 2-4 weeks in the market.. it’s coming so have that cash ready!! Cash is KING.. I’m not being party pooper just speaking the truth lol

We may be only down 19% but it will be 30% by the end of April. This is the time to be lightening up

I have heard that any Biz taking relief money will have to suspend Divys for at least one year as well as no buybacks. So if that’s the case these companies are in deep trinkets for a while. People are going to start to default on loans. These small business although ok over the next few months due the package the government set in place. Just wait until we get into months. It’s going to be very tough going forward. I feel bad for all these small businesses that won’t be able to survive.

Even when this all over. Everyone is still going to be practicing social distancing. There will be fewer people in restaurants, movie theaters will be dead, shopping area dead ect. Just because they tell us its ok to go out again doesn't mean it will be safe. And that is the scary part. This can come back at any time. All it takes is one to get infected again. I fear for my kids going back to school. A lot more fear will be setting in. This is far from over.

A lot of people don't have cash laying around. More selling will occur to free cash up for the families and emergency's. Think about it. Most people or families buy a fund of stock and leave it alone. Never to check on their investments until their statements come. They get out; not caring how much they lost but how much they still have left when were in desperate times. I just see a lot panic over the next few months. Sure we had panic already but more is to come. We are in a bear market, and in a bear market you have big rallies through out and lots a volatility. I also think we are headed into a recession.

So I do see a test of the lows again or even beyond that.

So where can you put your money in the meantime?? I don't know CD'S, Bonds, treasury bills, gold ??
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#20
I have a resting order to sell ES again at 2500, where will it go? Darned if I know but it's my entry signal.

Where to put cash? VUSTX has been good for me through the drop.
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