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Airline stock discussion
#11
The bigger ones will be saved. Of course they are not going to let the whole industry get destroyed.
But whether that does any good for the shareholders is another thing. Always remember that a bailout is about saving the company, not about saving the existing shareholders. And the one doing the bailing out has all the power.

One thing is pretty clear to me: any airline that gets bailed out will have to stop their dividend payments for the time being.
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#12
Mike, I don't think anybody is seriously thinking all the airlines fold. It's not an acceptable outcome. I didn't say Depression instead of Recession to be dramatic. The pin action on allowing all the airlines to go BK would absolutely devastate the economy.

It's not the "if", it's the "how". This is a financial nightmare. It's getting cleared the US can't save every troubled company. "Bail out" the rich folks is a dirty word these days. There may be some grants, but this is mostly going to have to be loans. There are airlines that could service their new debt. There are some that can't and it will just be prolonging their demise. World travel has to be restored. If they wait until it is completely safe there will be no privately owned airlines in the entire world.

Many were concerned corporations are too far in debt before this all happened. Seems that's the new reality. It's going to be a very short list of companies that aren't much riskier for years to come. Even some aristocrats are tapping out their current credit lines right now. While I am bullish on the market by 2021, the game just changed for sure. There will be BKs, acquisitions, and many of the blue chip survivors will be damaged goods. Yeah, that was a Captain Obvious statement. I hope you all took notes lol. I guess that's why stocks are cheaper now maybe? Smile
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#13
You will get DAL in single digits if you really want to buy. Wait and watch.
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#14
(03-21-2020, 08:07 PM)vbin Wrote: You will get DAL in single digits if you really want to buy. Wait and watch.

And XOM will cut their dividend and go to the teens.  Wait and watch.  I can make up numbers too.  Not sure it's useful though.  My crystal ball isn't as reliable as I'd like.  I'm sure of that. Have you looked at DALs balance sheet ever?
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#15
(03-21-2020, 08:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 08:07 PM)vbin Wrote: You will get DAL in single digits if you really want to buy. Wait and watch.

And XOM will cut their dividend and go to the teens.  Wait and watch.  I can make up numbers too.  Not sure it's useful though.  My crystal ball isn't as reliable as I'd like.  I'm sure of that.
I would be happy if that happens and buy more. XOM is a 10-20 years bet for me. It's all over the wall for airlines.

PS: that don't have as strong balance sheet as XOM.
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#16
(03-21-2020, 08:21 PM)vbin Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 08:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 08:07 PM)vbin Wrote: You will get DAL in single digits if you really want to buy. Wait and watch.

And XOM will cut their dividend and go to the teens.  Wait and watch.  I can make up numbers too.  Not sure it's useful though.  My crystal ball isn't as reliable as I'd like.  I'm sure of that.
I would be happy if that happens and buy more. XOM is a 10-20 years bet for me. It's all over the wall for airlines.

PS: that don't have as strong balance sheet as XOM.
This thread is about airlines.  Sorry I mentioned that.  You haven't looked at DAL balance sheet.  Until Armageddon their dividend was covered pretty well.  P.S. XOMs wasn't and still isn't. Hopefully the 20 years will be better than the last 20.
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#17
(03-21-2020, 07:49 PM)fenders53 Wrote: "Bail out" the rich folks is a dirty word these days. There may be some grants, but this is mostly going to have to be loans.


It needs to be rebranded to WE NEED TO SAVE ALL THE MILLIONS OF JOBS

Seems like most everyone was doing pretty well until Feb 2020??
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#18
(03-21-2020, 08:32 PM)NilesMike Wrote:
(03-21-2020, 07:49 PM)fenders53 Wrote:  "Bail out" the rich folks is a dirty word these days.  There may be some grants, but this is mostly going to have to be loans.  


It needs to be rebranded to WE NEED TO SAVE ALL THE MILLIONS OF JOBS

Seems like most everyone was doing pretty well until Feb 2020??

Exactly, because you and I are rich folks in the eyes of the ignorant because we own stocks.  They want to punish Buffet, without realizing 99% of the investors are regular people.

Yes this is about saving good jobs and not having a depression. Even the Prez hates the concept, even though he's been the beneficiary of our BK laws. The rhetoric is VERY much political. Don't confuse me with a Trump hater, but my eyes are wide open to what is going on to save an election. I pray he pulls it off. If this happened year one of a term you could let capitalism sort some of it out. There is not time for that. Everything will be radical and definitely historical.
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#19
Mike, there are some new articles on S.A. outlining the negotiation process. Today it seems like the outcome will be loans only and massive layoffs that will trickle down though the chain. Discretionary stocks will take some more pain while we burn the house down. Looks like UK will buy shares in British Airways.
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