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Table Pounding Buys MAR 2020
#11
(03-16-2020, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 11:58 AM)Otter Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 11:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO.  Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay.  The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

Diageo has 29 years of dividend growth under its belt, and is a U.K. Dividend Champion (dividends are paid in GBP, so subject to currency fluctuations). Their brand portfolio is pretty impressive in the liquor space:

https://www.diageo.com/en/our-brands/bra...roduction/

BF.B is still crazy overvalued, but I like DEO at these prices (it's around where I last made purchases three years ago).

Edited to add - U.K. company, so no dividend withholding tax for U.S. investors, but there is a small ADR fee.
The ADR fees can be ignored with the dividends we are chasing.  It's a rounding error when you are buying a stock that offers double the typical SPY div yield.

Medtronic (MDT) is starting to get deep in the buy range.  I may add a few shares today.

MDT is on my list, as well. It will be a new position once opened. About as good as it gets in the medical devices field.
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#12
(03-16-2020, 12:47 PM)Otter Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 11:58 AM)Otter Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 11:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO.  Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay.  The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

Diageo has 29 years of dividend growth under its belt, and is a U.K. Dividend Champion (dividends are paid in GBP, so subject to currency fluctuations). Their brand portfolio is pretty impressive in the liquor space:

https://www.diageo.com/en/our-brands/bra...roduction/

BF.B is still crazy overvalued, but I like DEO at these prices (it's around where I last made purchases three years ago).

Edited to add - U.K. company, so no dividend withholding tax for U.S. investors, but there is a small ADR fee.
The ADR fees can be ignored with the dividends we are chasing.  It's a rounding error when you are buying a stock that offers double the typical SPY div yield.

Medtronic (MDT) is starting to get deep in the buy range.  I may add a few shares today.

MDT is on my list, as well. It will be a new position once opened. About as good as it gets in the medical devices field.
They benefit like a Pharma stock, but fly under the radar of the politicians for excessive pricing.  They probably shouldn't, but they seem to. MDT is probably a good idea anywhere under $100 and they are way south of that now.
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#13
Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...
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#14
(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

Bought it today, first purchase. Extreme FCF coverage, great historical yield and a veeeery long streak of raises. Was on my bucket list for a long time.
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#15
(03-16-2020, 02:50 PM)Binary Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

Bought it today, first purchase. Extreme FCF coverage, great historical yield and a veeeery long streak of raises. Was on my bucket list for a long time.

I wonder why Buffett / BRK hasn't bought it yet. Seems like a perfect fit in terms of size, value, values, and industry.
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#16
(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...


A lot of insurance company’s are diving right now for no reason I can find. I have already picked up AFL and PRU, but there are many others like MET and TRV!


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#17
(03-16-2020, 04:13 PM)Kerim Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 02:50 PM)Binary Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

Bought it today, first purchase. Extreme FCF coverage, great historical yield and a veeeery long streak of raises. Was on my bucket list for a long time.

I wonder why Buffett / BRK hasn't bought it yet. Seems like a perfect fit in terms of size, value, values, and industry.

I've been wondering that for years.
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#18
(03-16-2020, 05:55 PM)benjamen Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...


A lot of insurance company’s are diving right now for no reason I can find.  I have already picked up AFL and PRU, but there are many others like MET and TRV!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
benjamin

I'm no insurance expert but zero interest rates will hurt profitability.  They rely on spreads for some of their products just as a bank does.  

Annuities would be an example.  They sell an annuity and promise a future payment.  They need to safely invest the proceeds at a higher rate so they can profit.  That doesn't work when a long dated treasury bills etc are well under 2%.  You'll have no interest in an annuity that basically just gives your money back + 0-1% later.  Same deal with pensions they manage.  They count on earnings from those funds until the payouts.  Casualty insurers are required by law to maintain a large cash reserve to pay claims.  They have lost much of the yield on that money too.  They have other ways to produce revenue, and the 50% selloff seems way overdone.  We need to see updated earnings guidance before we really know what they are worth.  Revenue and earnings guidance will certainly be lowered.
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#19
Doesn't BRK already own Geico and have an insurance business of its own? Maybe there is enough cross-markets there that it wouldn't make sense or there are regulatory hurdles to buying Aflac.
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#20
(03-17-2020, 01:36 AM)EricL Wrote: Doesn't BRK already own Geico and have an insurance business of its own? Maybe there is enough cross-markets there that it wouldn't make sense or there are regulatory hurdles to buying Aflac.

I think that is accurate.  Add in the 15 banks he owns and they are probably about as interest sensitive as they care to be.  I do think he will swoop down and grab some wounded companies by summer/fall .  If they don't I wouldn't be a pleased BRK shareholder.  I'm real curious what they buy next.  I think energy and finance are off the table but we'll see. Some of the airlines may be looking for a loan shark with deep pockets soon. He's warmed up some to that sector the past year or so.
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