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03-09-2020, 10:27 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2020, 10:30 AM by fenders53.)
(03-09-2020, 08:05 AM)kblake Wrote: RIP OXY..... Wow this is at $16 right now. Unbelievable!
Commodity based stocks are by far the most difficult. You can't even dream how low the bottom can be when it all goes to hell. I suspect some here think I have been trolling oil with all my warnings. This is the third time this sector has ripped my face off. It's just not nearly so bad for me this this time because I've seen this movie before.
Please stay away from anything that might go BK if this goes on for a year, even if it goes 50%+ off recent prices. I truly hate to see folks get hurt. This isn't about "I told you so". If I pizz you off with my attempts to save you some from the falling knife, I'll just have to live with that.
GLTA
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(03-09-2020, 08:07 AM)NilesMike Wrote: On the bright side, maybe I will be able to pick up some cheap rental properties and muscle car prices will come down from the stratosphere.
Building my lemonade stand here, got plenty of lemons I suspect.
Love your attitude Mike. Lemons are on sale too lol. Always buy quality lemons. Thanks for sharing the hedging advice. I'll check it out when I have time. I'm too busy buying cheap lemons that aren't rotten yet lol.
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(03-09-2020, 10:32 AM)NilesMike Wrote: OXY just downgraded
I don't even want to know what useless analyst made that call months after novices saw the danger. I ignore most of them.
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(03-06-2020, 01:47 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Bought a covered call on PENN
Stock 24.28
17APR 20 26C 2.01
(Oh and bought UPRO below the open and closed it out for $2.00 higher around 9:30AM)
(03-09-2020, 10:37 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-09-2020, 10:32 AM)NilesMike Wrote: OXY just downgraded
I don't even want to know what useless analyst made that call months after novices saw the danger. I ignore most of them.
I agree with you sentiment however the downgrade will precipitate even more piling on.
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(03-09-2020, 10:09 AM)EricL Wrote: (03-09-2020, 08:11 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (03-09-2020, 07:08 AM)divmenow Wrote: who's buying CVX, RDS.A, CVX or BP this morning. Any brave takers lol
I might nibble a bit on Shell, they will survive this.
While the Saudi's can of course pump more and cheaper than anyone else, it's basically their only income source. They can, and might want to, keep the price down for 6 months or so to drive US shale out of business but their country just cannot survive at it's current state with oil around $30 for years.
The longer these low prices last the uglier it will get for western oil companies, but at some point the prices will go back up to a level where Shell is profitable and they can cover the dividend.
Shell, for a long time now, has not been a bet on oil price going higher. It's a bet, that currently yields something like 11%, that they can maintain that dividend.
Might want to look into Shell's exposure to LNG. That market has tanked as the US ramped up LNG production, and Shell has bet very big on the sector.
It's not difficult to find a reason to not buy anything oil. This is going to be a historical pullback and I wish I knew where the bottom is, because I know which five or so stocks will survive. Not counting the pipelines. They are transport stocks lol.
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(03-09-2020, 10:34 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-09-2020, 08:07 AM)NilesMike Wrote: On the bright side, maybe I will be able to pick up some cheap rental properties and muscle car prices will come down from the stratosphere.
Building my lemonade stand here, got plenty of lemons I suspect.
Love your attitude Mike. Lemons are on sale too lol. Always buy quality lemons. Thanks for sharing the hedging advice. I'll check it out when I have time. I'm too busy buying cheap lemons that aren't rotten yet lol.
One needs to be nimble. I don't want people to lose jobs (my tenants need jobs) but when they do, the weaker landlords shake out.
When employment is up, I raise the rent.
Ebbs and flows, it's called life-LOL
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(03-09-2020, 10:41 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (03-06-2020, 01:47 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Bought a covered call on PENN
Stock 24.28
17APR 20 26C 2.01
(Oh and bought UPRO below the open and closed it out for $2.00 higher around 9:30AM)
(03-09-2020, 10:37 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-09-2020, 10:32 AM)NilesMike Wrote: OXY just downgraded
I don't even want to know what useless analyst made that call months after novices saw the danger. I ignore most of them.
I agree with you sentiment however the downgrade will precipitate even more piling on.
Agreed, if you buy commodity stocks before the downgrades you get punched in the face for another 20%.
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03-11-2020, 08:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-11-2020, 08:36 PM by divmenow.)
Wow the CME Group will close trading floor until further notice amid coronavirus outbreak.
They should just temporary close all the markets until this is over. Halt trading and leave stocks as it then can resume. If business are closing in NY why not the exchange’s?? The tradings floors have been going down on low volume because people on the trading floor are home. Just close it. I know they won’t but they should lol
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03-11-2020, 08:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-11-2020, 08:51 PM by vbin.)
Tom Hanks, his wife, NBA player tested positive, guys stay safe, hope everyone is taking precautions, this is going to escalate. Check where Italy was 3 weeks ago. U.s.a. will be in much more worse condition 3 weeks from now. Be safe. Also India is stopping paracetamol row material export, might be a telenol shortage in a month if it continues.
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(03-11-2020, 08:31 PM)divmenow Wrote: Wow the CME Group will close trading floor until further notice amid coronavirus outbreak.
They should just temporary close all the markets until this is over. Halt trading and leave stocks as it then can resume. If business are closing in NY why not the exchange’s?? The tradings floors have been going down on low volume because people on the trading floor are home. Just close it. I know they won’t but they should lol
But what would I do all day? 
Kidding, it's not a terrible idea. Here is another. Maybe skip next earnings report period too. Everybody is reporting in July. Give everyone time to concentrate on things that matter. Worry about keeping your business solvent rather than your share price getting nuked, containing and maybe treating the virus, the FED Chief doesn't have as much need to make rash decisions that maybe aren't good a few months from now etc.
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Japanese markets 7% down after opening. Tomorrow might be a red day again. We will test 2000? Keep your emergency funds safe people.
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