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Tips for surviving a correction
#21
The only pandemic in the past 120 years with a case fatality rate of 2% or more was the 1918-1920 "Spanish Flu" (estimated case fatality rate of 2-3%).

Almost no one alive has any personal memory of such an event. If the statistics bear out on SARS-CoV-2, that would be the closest analogue. No other outbreak/epidemic (SARS, Ebola, MERS have never escalated to pandemic) has escalated to worldwide spread with a deadlier virus (thank goodness). And no other pandemic (Swine Flu, 1968 Hong Kong Flu, 1957 Asian Flu) comes anywhere close to a case fatality rate of 2% (they were all orders of magnitude lower).

The statistics have been crunched by a lot of reputable epidemiological and infectious disease experts. There are now a growing number of studies regarding R0 (how infectious it is), clinical presentation of the disease/case studies, case fatality rates, etc. from experts and groups such as (Twitter handles and websites below if you would like to build a feed of actual experts who are speaking about the disease):

Imperial College London's MRC Centre for Infectious Disease Analysis (@MRC_Outbreak on Twitter)
Dr. Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s Faculty of Medicine (@gmleunghku on Twitter)
Professor Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health (@mlipsitch on Twitter)
Professor Neil Ferguson, Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London (@neil_ferguson on Twitter)
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, FDA Commissioner 2017-2019 (@ScottGottliebMD on Twitter)
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, epidemiologist, health economist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (@DrEricDing on Twitter)
Ian M. Mackay, PhD, Virologist and Associate Professor at University of Queensland (@MackayIM on Twitter)
The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus )
New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus )
Los Alamos National Laboratory (their referenced R0 Study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20021154v1 )
CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/media/dpk/diseases-a...-2020.html )

If you assume that the experts are correct regarding the likelihood of a pandemic, and the statistical likelihood of disease progression through the population (% with pneumonia, % with symptoms requiring ICU care, mortality rate), no economic models based upon prior epidemics or pandemics are likely to be of any meaningful use. If the experts are right, the implied supply chain disruptions and demand shocks are likely to be the biggest seen since the Second World War. Europe and South Korea are just now at the very bottom of a potentially steep exponential curve, if what happened in Hubei Province is any guide.
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#22
Also, some decent (if brief) economic analysis from Guggenheim's Scott Minerd in a Bloomberg piece published today:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...his-career
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#23
I am not knowledgeable. I am paying close attention to South Korea. I don't have a lot of faith in the stats from China. I do understand it is a large number. Probably larger than then they claim. We were discussing the Spanish flu tonight. We live near a small rural cemetary and there was a clearly high incidence of death in 1918 as marked on the tombstones. My elderly aunt has no memory of course, but she was told a lot of her relative were gone in under a week after symptoms. It doesn't affect my long-term investment thesis yet, but it could certainly stop economic growth in the near future.
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#24
I know I have been preaching "stick to the plan" this week, but yesterday's posts from Otter, Vbin and EricL have caused me to realize my "buy quality on the hard dip" plan is just folly.  I read the links and it's clear this is the end.  I'm one of the elderly here, so I'm gonna die and lose all my money.  The order of those outcomes still to be determined.  I refuse to leave without a fight, so I need a new plan....

I am going to short AAPL,NEE and TSLA today after the market drops another 1000 points or so.  I need to make sure the market is actually scared.  Hopefully I can find a 5X leveraged ETF and do this right.  Failing that, I am selling my real estate I was going to Will to my daughter.  She'll understand.  If I can't sell the properties fast enough I'll just use margin.  I'm gonna need beer and face masks.  We got a big shipment of masks in at HD yesterday.  I bought them all and quit my part-time job last night.  They weren't going to pay me again for two weeks so what good is that?  I'm gonna need beer to get through my final days so I borrowed money from my mother.  She's really old so she isn't going to need the money to buy her meds next month anyway.  

Have a good day everyone.
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#25
Futures are down on global spread.
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#26
(03-01-2020, 08:15 PM)vbin Wrote: Futures are down on global spread.

I'm long, shooting to fill the gap.
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#27
(03-01-2020, 08:15 PM)vbin Wrote: Futures are down on global spread.

I've been expecting that all weekend.    It can stop that soon before I run out of shopping money.  Smile
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#28
Out @ 2950. I'm a sissy. Could only hold for 46 points-LOL
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#29
They'll probably flip three more ties before the open.
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#30
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.  Confused

Craziest dead cat bounce I've seen in a while. Pretty disappointing when I entered 6 not-so-lowball limit orders over the weekend and only one executed. Sad
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan


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