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The Speculative Stocks....
#31
Sorry late to this thread -- my speculative play lately has been nibbling on STOK. They are developing a treatment that could really change my daughter's life. As if I don't have enough skin in the game already!
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#32
(02-24-2020, 10:58 AM)Kerim Wrote: Sorry late to this thread -- my speculative play lately has been nibbling on STOK. They are developing a treatment that could really change my daughter's life. As if I don't have enough skin in the game already!

What are they testing Kerim?  And best wishes to you and your daughter.
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#33
Took another buck out of SIX 31.49-30.49 this morning, a good 10 minutes of work before work. LOL
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#34
(02-24-2020, 05:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(02-24-2020, 10:58 AM)Kerim Wrote: Sorry late to this thread -- my speculative play lately has been nibbling on STOK. They are developing a treatment that could really change my daughter's life. As if I don't have enough skin in the game already!

What are they testing Kerim?  And best wishes to you and your daughter.

Thank you!

I barely understand it, but at a hugely vague and likely inaccurate level: some genetic-based diseases occur where there is one good copy of the DNA and one mutated copy. In building the body's cells, both copies are read by the RNA, and the things built from the mutated copy don't work properly. (In my daughter's case (Dravet syndrome), it is the sodium ion channels in her nerve cells, which leads to seizures and developmental delays.) STOK has developed a way to replace the mutated bit in the RNA, so that much more of the resulting structures built the right way instead of the "mutated" way. (Here's a way better explanation.) They haven't tried it in humans yet, but it worked like gangbusters in mice, apparently. Phase I human trials are this year. A different company has successfully used a very similar technique in humans for a different condition.

Even if the tech works, I have no idea if this will turn out to be a good investment (there's lots of reasons to think it might not be). But of course I'm not betting big, and I kind of like the idea of partnering up with the company that might really help my kid.
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#35
I'm not quite in this mindset just yet, but maybe next week. PLUG is on my watch list. May enter a metal mining stock soon as anything commodity is getting crushed. Leaning towards an industrial metal. Copper while it's beat down perhaps? I'm not a gold bug as it's way too manipulated IMO. I'm already into a speculative chemical stock (OLN). I really enjoy trading it. Both long and options keeps working out. I have a limit order in on FCX.
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#36
Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.

I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.
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#37
(02-29-2020, 09:51 PM)vbin Wrote: Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.

I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.

Buffet loan sharked OXY IMO.  Good companies shouldn't be paying 8% interest.  That is going to choke them.  If OXY ever runs he can exercise warrants and sell into the rally.  He got a good deal on KHC as well, but that one blew up on him so far.  I don't chase his stocks when he got in at 50% off.  He always gets a great deal, and I am starting to see it is often at the common stock holders expense.  I love Uncle Warren, but when he enters a stock, I like to know the details.  

I'll go check those other tickers you mentioned.  I got my position in FCX.  I'll keep it small, and it is nothing but a trade.  It comes with a dividend but it is subject to be turned off when copper crashes.  They do mine a little gold and some other metals.  I will probably add a little FUN if they dip again.  The flu will cause that for sure if the US gets scared.
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#38
(02-29-2020, 10:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(02-29-2020, 09:51 PM)vbin Wrote: Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.

I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.

Buffet loan sharked OXY IMO.  Good companies shouldn't be paying 8% interest.  That is going to choke them.  If OXY ever runs he can exercise warrants and sell into the rally.  He got a good deal on KHC as well, but that one blew up on him so far.  I don't chase his stocks when he got in at 50% off.  He always gets a great deal, and I am starting to see it is often at the common stock holders expense.  I love Uncle Warren, but when he enters a stock, I like to know the details.  

I'll go check those other tickers you mentioned.  I got my position in FCX.  I'll keep it small, and it is nothing but a trade.  It comes with a dividend but it is subject to be turned off when copper crashes.  They do mine a little gold and some other metals.  I will probably add a little FUN if they dip again.  The flu will cause that for sure if the US gets scared.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Here is what I think: the current div yield on oxy is 10%. More than what buffet is getting. The stoke is down more than 20% since he got the deal. Like you said he can exercise his warrents if the stock flies so it's in his interest that's stock does well. He will be watching. Oxy has some great assets. CEO clarified div isn't in danger for next 1 to 1.5 years and hopefully by then we will be able.to come down off this downward oil spiral. It isn't sustainable. Banks are already tightening the money on shale. If this continues, shale companies will go through real stress test, how many will survive? It's a cash crunch scenerio, unlike KHC. Oxy have been cutting debt aggressively. If i am not wrong they cut 35% already.
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#39
(03-01-2020, 12:49 AM)vbin Wrote:
(02-29-2020, 10:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(02-29-2020, 09:51 PM)vbin Wrote: Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.

I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.

Buffet loan sharked OXY IMO.  Good companies shouldn't be paying 8% interest.  That is going to choke them.  If OXY ever runs he can exercise warrants and sell into the rally.  He got a good deal on KHC as well, but that one blew up on him so far.  I don't chase his stocks when he got in at 50% off.  He always gets a great deal, and I am starting to see it is often at the common stock holders expense.  I love Uncle Warren, but when he enters a stock, I like to know the details.  

I'll go check those other tickers you mentioned.  I got my position in FCX.  I'll keep it small, and it is nothing but a trade.  It comes with a dividend but it is subject to be turned off when copper crashes.  They do mine a little gold and some other metals.  I will probably add a little FUN if they dip again.  The flu will cause that for sure if the US gets scared.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Here is what I think: the current div yield on oxy is 10%. More than what buffet is getting. The stoke is down more than 20% since he got the deal. Like you said he can exercise his warrents if the stock flies so it's in his interest that's stock does well. He will be watching.  Oxy has some great assets. CEO clarified div isn't in danger for next 1 to 1.5 years and hopefully by then we will be able.to come down off this downward oil spiral. It isn't sustainable. Banks are already tightening the money on shale. If this continues, shale companies will go through real stress test, how many will survive?  It's a cash crunch scenerio, unlike KHC. Oxy have been cutting debt aggressively. If i am not wrong they cut 35% already.
In the total picture of Buffet's investment, I don't think he is getting half the yield of common stock holders.  That's not how he rolls usually.  Definitely research that, and their current debt, cash flow etc.  Same with any oil stock investment.  

Never mind all that for now.  Oil isn't dead, but the short-term thesis is definitely broken, and the midterm may be as well.  That's why about every one of these stocks is a falling knife chart pattern.  I don't remember the last time they went up three days in a row.  If you are buying to hold, I would go very slow if you aren't going to wait for a bottom, just in case the bottom is another 0% drop from here.  If you are expecting the flu to get worse, it will hurt any prospect for world growth this year.  Only a war act type interruption of oil supply could cause a V bottom.  

Doesn't matter if it's oil.  It's almost always a good idea to wait for some evidence any falling knife stock is at least trying to resist the free fall.  Or as they say, don't fight the tape.  I suppose the same could be said for the airline stocks I am buying.  They are now spec stocks.  I bought Delta, which is regarded as the best balance sheet in their industry.  Kind of like XOM, they aren't filing BK, but competitors might.  I like my entry price long-term, but it's very clear I was early.  I'm am going to accept that reality.  My reaction is not going to be buy more everyday  and end up both overweight, and down 50%+.  That's a recipe for waiting years to just get back to even.  Not an acceptable strategy for me.  Especially when most of the market is finally on sale.  There are much more rational places to invest my money this month.
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#40
Well, this goes definitely in the speculative thread.
Today, for some reason way beyond comprehension, the markets in Europe opened at about +2%. I wasn't too surprised, I kinda expected it.. I just seriously don't understand WHY.

But anyway. Shorted the frenchies. Let's see how that one goes.
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