11-21-2020, 11:01 AM
(11-21-2020, 09:54 AM)NilesMike Wrote: The only way that I've had success with IPOs is to wait 6 months and take the breakout/breakdown (if shortable) of the first 6 month range.
I just keep a watch list of new IPOs with lines marked on the chart.
It would be hard to argue against that strategy. Most of them fall back to what they traded at during the first week, if not sub-IPO price. By now you've seen at least one earnings report and the insider lockup period is over. I can't think of a single truly successful company where buying months late mattered. AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, they all sold cheap years after IPO.
It comes back to VBIN's point. You are scared of valuation during the early years because the math just doesn't add up yet. I think that I am smart enough to weed out 50% of them because I don't buy the longterm narrative. No moat blah, blah, blah. I'm sure I would have scoffed at the Heinz Ketchup IPO if it looked expensive at the time.