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PM / MO Merger?!
#21
(09-25-2019, 02:22 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 01:47 PM)Binary Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 01:07 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: The bigger issue than div to EPS is the cash flow payout ratio. Last I checked it was significantly over 100%, maybe around 125%, for the first half of this year. That is obviously not sustainable, and while for a short term it will be ok, they have to turn it around sooner rather than later. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large dividend cut coming in the next few years. (and I do not consider that a bad thing, sometimes the company needs to focus on things other than the dividend)

Might that payout be because of the Juul acquisition?

No. This is cash from operating activities compared with cash used in payment of dividend.
Acquisitions are not part of operating activities, instead they are reported under cash from investing activities.

So I'm looking at Morningstar. TTM numbers say free cash flow is 6.688B USD, dividend was 5.831B USD. That is an 87% payout ratio, quite normal for this company as I see it.
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#22
(09-26-2019, 03:13 AM)Binary Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 02:22 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 01:47 PM)Binary Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 01:07 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: The bigger issue than div to EPS is the cash flow payout ratio. Last I checked it was significantly over 100%, maybe around 125%, for the first half of this year. That is obviously not sustainable, and while for a short term it will be ok, they have to turn it around sooner rather than later. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large dividend cut coming in the next few years. (and I do not consider that a bad thing, sometimes the company needs to focus on things other than the dividend)

Might that payout be because of the Juul acquisition?

No. This is cash from operating activities compared with cash used in payment of dividend.
Acquisitions are not part of operating activities, instead they are reported under cash from investing activities.

So I'm looking at Morningstar. TTM numbers say free cash flow is 6.688B USD, dividend was 5.831B USD. That is an 87% payout ratio, quite normal for this company as I see it.

Yeah I guess it depends on how you look at it.
I'm looking at the first 6 months of 2019. Cash from operations 2.4 billion, dividends paid 3 billion.

Looking at the 5 year cash from operations data, I would guess there is some sort of a non-recurring inflow that has happened in 2018 as it's significantly higher than any of the previous years and looks to be significantly higher than 2019.
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#23
In regards to MO

They invested in JUUL which isn't even FDA approved. Right there is a red flag. I wont touch this stock.

At least with PM they have a product in place called IQOS. This has big potential now that JUUL will most likely be banned unless used as a prescription. .

MO has nothing left. Slowing cigarette sales and a bad investment in JUUL and CRON as a wait and see. The dividend could be cut as well. I see another KHC on our hands.
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#24
(09-26-2019, 09:27 AM)kblake Wrote: In regards to MO

They invested in JUUL which isn't even FDA approved. Right there is a red flag. I wont touch this stock.

At least with PM they have a product in place called IQOS. This has big potential now that JUUL will most likely be banned unless used as a prescription. .

MO has nothing left. Slowing cigarette sales and a bad investment in JUUL and CRON as a wait and see. The dividend could be cut as well. I see another KHC on our hands.

Timing of acquisitions was definitely off in retrospect, but the books say this isn't anything like KHC incompetency.  Nowhere near that yet IMO.
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#25
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/vaping-l...-says.html

Please read "Key Point #3",  at the top of this article.  It's pretty much what we have been discussing all along.  The FDA must be working overtime trying to figure out how to regulate this mess in a hurry.  JUUL would be toast without MO's help.  I'm very curious what kind of toxins these idiot bootleggers are/were adding to the THC.  Or is there some legal cannabis oil ingredient that becomes a toxin only when heated?
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#26
(10-03-2019, 04:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/vaping-l...-says.html

Please read "Key Point #3",  at the top of this article.  It's pretty much what we have been discussing all along.  The FDA must be working overtime trying to figure out how to regulate this mess in a hurry.  JUUL would be toast without MO's help.  I'm very curious what kind of toxins these idiot bootleggers are/were adding to the THC.  Or is there some legal cannabis oil ingredient that becomes a toxin only when heated?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3517298-cd...ng-liquids

A little more info. So, it's black market THC carts with these additives that are the problem, not JUUL, Blu, or the other legit vaping tech that has been used without any remarkable ill effects for years by people looking for an alternative to cigarettes. 

Some of the folks affected by the adulterated THC vaping carts were getting sick within weeks of exposure. Most of the JUUL (MO) and Blu (BTI) customers would have been sick or dead years ago if it were their pods causing the issue.
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#27
(11-08-2019, 04:36 PM)Otter Wrote:
(10-03-2019, 04:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/vaping-l...-says.html

Please read "Key Point #3",  at the top of this article.  It's pretty much what we have been discussing all along.  The FDA must be working overtime trying to figure out how to regulate this mess in a hurry.  JUUL would be toast without MO's help.  I'm very curious what kind of toxins these idiot bootleggers are/were adding to the THC.  Or is there some legal cannabis oil ingredient that becomes a toxin only when heated?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3517298-cd...ng-liquids

A little more info. So, it's black market THC carts with these additives that are the problem, not JUUL, Blu, or the other legit vaping tech that has been used without any remarkable ill effects for years by people looking for an alternative to cigarettes. 

Some of the folks affected by the adulterated THC vaping carts were getting sick within weeks of exposure. Most of the JUUL (MO) and Blu (BTI) customers would have been sick or dead years ago if it were their pods causing the issue.

I agree, but it will take time to sort out studies, and in the meantime JUUL's marketing to kids caught the limelight.  They are guilty as hell of that.  Even if you don't believe that, what you won't prove is JUUL knew who was using their product and did little to prevent it.  They appear to be in a prove their innocence situation rather than the other way around.  They've already folded like a lawn chair on flavors and it was probably prudent for the foreseeable future. 

I've read a lot of folks on SA pretend this was MOs master plan and the JUUL investment was brilliant even at the price they paid.  That's a bunch of Kool-Aid drinking right there.  MO will be OK IMO, but they flushed some serious money they could have sent us next year in a monster dividend raise.  Smile
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#28
(11-08-2019, 11:31 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(11-08-2019, 04:36 PM)Otter Wrote:
(10-03-2019, 04:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/vaping-l...-says.html

Please read "Key Point #3",  at the top of this article.  It's pretty much what we have been discussing all along.  The FDA must be working overtime trying to figure out how to regulate this mess in a hurry.  JUUL would be toast without MO's help.  I'm very curious what kind of toxins these idiot bootleggers are/were adding to the THC.  Or is there some legal cannabis oil ingredient that becomes a toxin only when heated?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3517298-cd...ng-liquids

A little more info. So, it's black market THC carts with these additives that are the problem, not JUUL, Blu, or the other legit vaping tech that has been used without any remarkable ill effects for years by people looking for an alternative to cigarettes. 

Some of the folks affected by the adulterated THC vaping carts were getting sick within weeks of exposure. Most of the JUUL (MO) and Blu (BTI) customers would have been sick or dead years ago if it were their pods causing the issue.

I agree, but it will take time to sort out studies, and in the meantime JUUL's marketing to kids caught the limelight.  They are guilty as hell of that.  Even if you don't believe that, what you won't prove is JUUL knew who was using their product and did little to prevent it.  They appear to be in a prove their innocence situation rather than the other way around.  They've already folded like a lawn chair on flavors and it was probably prudent for the foreseeable future. 

I've read a lot of folks on SA pretend this was MOs master plan and the JUUL investment was brilliant even at the price they paid.  That's a bunch of Kool-Aid drinking right there.  MO will be OK IMO, but they flushed some serious money they could have sent us next year in a monster dividend raise.  Smile

I agree. In hindsight, MO appears to have overpaid for its stake in Juul. They purchased with knowledge of the advertising issues, and I suspect that was baked into the price they paid (they probably anticipated being able to smooth over a lot of that with regulators once they had control over Juul). The vaping illness panic that shone a bright media/government spotlight onto Juul and other vaping companies was not foreseen, and in light of that, it looks like MO got less than they bargained for, as the regulatory pressure they encountered was much greater. 

I still think that ultimately they will control substantial market share in the nicotine vaping market through Juul. It will just take longer for that investment to pay off.
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#29
(11-11-2019, 10:01 AM)Otter Wrote:
(11-08-2019, 11:31 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(11-08-2019, 04:36 PM)Otter Wrote:
(10-03-2019, 04:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/vaping-l...-says.html

Please read "Key Point #3",  at the top of this article.  It's pretty much what we have been discussing all along.  The FDA must be working overtime trying to figure out how to regulate this mess in a hurry.  JUUL would be toast without MO's help.  I'm very curious what kind of toxins these idiot bootleggers are/were adding to the THC.  Or is there some legal cannabis oil ingredient that becomes a toxin only when heated?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3517298-cd...ng-liquids

A little more info. So, it's black market THC carts with these additives that are the problem, not JUUL, Blu, or the other legit vaping tech that has been used without any remarkable ill effects for years by people looking for an alternative to cigarettes. 

Some of the folks affected by the adulterated THC vaping carts were getting sick within weeks of exposure. Most of the JUUL (MO) and Blu (BTI) customers would have been sick or dead years ago if it were their pods causing the issue.

I agree, but it will take time to sort out studies, and in the meantime JUUL's marketing to kids caught the limelight.  They are guilty as hell of that.  Even if you don't believe that, what you won't prove is JUUL knew who was using their product and did little to prevent it.  They appear to be in a prove their innocence situation rather than the other way around.  They've already folded like a lawn chair on flavors and it was probably prudent for the foreseeable future. 

I've read a lot of folks on SA pretend this was MOs master plan and the JUUL investment was brilliant even at the price they paid.  That's a bunch of Kool-Aid drinking right there.  MO will be OK IMO, but they flushed some serious money they could have sent us next year in a monster dividend raise.  Smile

I agree. In hindsight, MO appears to have overpaid for its stake in Juul. They purchased with knowledge of the advertising issues, and I suspect that was baked into the price they paid (they probably anticipated being able to smooth over a lot of that with regulators once they had control over Juul). The vaping illness panic that shone a bright media/government spotlight onto Juul and other vaping companies was not foreseen, and in light of that, it looks like MO got less than they bargained for, as the regulatory pressure they encountered was much greater. 

I still think that ultimately they will control substantial market share in the nicotine vaping market through Juul. It will just take longer for that investment to pay off.

Once the vaping deaths subside there will be a clearer path forward.
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#30
Even companies buy/invest too soon lol

Great...join the crowd!
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