02-10-2020, 01:27 PM
(02-10-2020, 12:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Yeah, we understand what 20 SPY contracts that close to the money cost. It's a totally directional bet. I also do some things that don't make sense unless you consider my entire portfolio. But this, in combination with your ""I buy and hold most everything forever" strategy don't mesh together so well. It seems impulsive unless used in small doses as a true hedge. This looks much more like a directional market timing bet unless you hedge this hedge. Disclaimer, if your port is worth 10 milly then ignore me lol.
This is straight up a directional market timing bet with a portion of savings, which is completely out of keeping with how I have invested new funds over the past decade. I have never before made a bet like this. I've also never seen China quarantine over 200 million people before and shut down their largest manufacturing/shipping hub, or a press conference like the one the WHO just gave today.
There's plenty of YouTube videos out there of Chinese authorities welding doors shut at large apartment blocks, telling people they must remain inside for at least 14 days. Also videos of hundreds of workers in hazmat suits entering various complexes there. With reports that the virus is highly infectious, can have up to a 24-day asymptomatic incubation period (during which it is transmissible), can survive on smooth surfaces for about as long (quite rare for viruses), is airborne, has been transmitted outside of China by people with no travel history to China , has a 15% pneumonia and 3-5% critical condition rate, I am inclined to believe the Director General of the WHO's statement that we may just be seeing the "tip of the iceberg." So, decided to make an investment based on that thesis given prior market reaction to SARS, which was a much less transmissible disease.