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Conservative option strategies, what did you buy or sell today?
TSLA looks like a pretty safe bet to head to $0. The numbers just don't add up for them. Destroying $700 million in the first quarter, no realistic growth catalysts on the horizon, and the CEO talking about branching out into insurance on the latest earnings call. Am actually considering buying a put for the first time in my life. Missed out on Enron.
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(04-25-2019, 08:44 AM)Otter Wrote: TSLA looks like a pretty safe bet to head to $0. The numbers just don't add up for them. Destroying $700 million in the first quarter, no realistic growth catalysts on the horizon, and the CEO talking about branching out into insurance on the latest earnings call. Am actually considering buying a put for the first time in my life. Missed out on Enron.

I'm not quite that pessimistic yet.  They'll have to issue shares soon.  They are still solid enough to do that. They are six months late.  I don't wish them bad luck, but I knew their base model car at $50K+ wasn't going to work out past the initial demand surge.  Until recently that was about as cheap as you could get one.  I'll be surprised in the stock goes anywhere but slowly down for now.  The cult is still in tact, but I can't imagine the big money isn't dumping right now.   Elon's new idea of the week makes him sound absolutely unhinged.  Tesla insurance?  That's a good one.  Pretty sure you need sterling credit and huge cash reserves.  Not to mention getting licensed in 50 states.
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(04-25-2019, 07:41 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-25-2019, 08:44 AM)Otter Wrote: TSLA looks like a pretty safe bet to head to $0. The numbers just don't add up for them. Destroying $700 million in the first quarter, no realistic growth catalysts on the horizon, and the CEO talking about branching out into insurance on the latest earnings call. Am actually considering buying a put for the first time in my life. Missed out on Enron.

I'm not quite that pessimistic yet.  They'll have to issue shares soon.  They are still solid enough to do that. They are six months late.  I don't wish them bad luck, but I knew their base model car at $50K+ wasn't going to work out past the initial demand surge.  Until recently that was about as cheap as you could get one.  I'll be surprised in the stock goes anywhere but slowly down for now.  The cult is still in tact, but I can't imagine the big money isn't dumping right now.   Elon's new idea of the week makes him sound absolutely unhinged.  Tesla insurance?  That's a good one.  Pretty sure you need sterling credit and huge cash reserves.  Not to mention getting licensed in 50 states.

Supposedly Musk hits a margin call around $232/share, and he recently took out $61 million in mortgages on residential property holdings of his in California. Things could get very interesting soon.

Short interest in TSLA is up to about 26% now. I suspect a big part of that is Goldman. Their recent downgrade provides a $190 price target.

Panics usually start as a trickle, but the stampede for the exits can develop quickly.
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(04-26-2019, 09:15 AM)Otter Wrote:
(04-25-2019, 07:41 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-25-2019, 08:44 AM)Otter Wrote: TSLA looks like a pretty safe bet to head to $0. The numbers just don't add up for them. Destroying $700 million in the first quarter, no realistic growth catalysts on the horizon, and the CEO talking about branching out into insurance on the latest earnings call. Am actually considering buying a put for the first time in my life. Missed out on Enron.

I'm not quite that pessimistic yet.  They'll have to issue shares soon.  They are still solid enough to do that. They are six months late.  I don't wish them bad luck, but I knew their base model car at $50K+ wasn't going to work out past the initial demand surge.  Until recently that was about as cheap as you could get one.  I'll be surprised in the stock goes anywhere but slowly down for now.  The cult is still in tact, but I can't imagine the big money isn't dumping right now.   Elon's new idea of the week makes him sound absolutely unhinged.  Tesla insurance?  That's a good one.  Pretty sure you need sterling credit and huge cash reserves.  Not to mention getting licensed in 50 states.

Supposedly Musk hits a margin call around $232/share, and he recently took out $61 million in mortgages on residential property holdings of his in California. Things could get very interesting soon.

Short interest in TSLA is up to about 26% now. I suspect a big part of that is Goldman. Their recent downgrade provides a $190 price target.

Panics usually start as a trickle, but the stampede for the exits can develop quickly.
It's an interesting story I spend too much time reading about.  The cultists will stick around and end up holding the bag.  TSLA is worth $50.  That's still twice book value the other automakers are awarded. That's probably appropriate for blazing the EV trail. EV is going to become mainstream, but TSLA will run out of money WAY before it happens.  If Musk would stand down I think they would survive. That is the wildcard.  He's always been impulsive but it's on another level now.  He is panicking.  Institutions are leaving now IMO.  They won't scare the market to excess until they have liquidated.
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Sold a PFE 39 and a BMY 45 May put. Already own some and they are cheap enough to add more IMO. Premiums are good if I don't get assigned.
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Not too much in play right now. I am about to pounce on a UPS put sale. It's looking very attractive since I wish to own it if I underestimate how low it may go in the near future. I could be deep in BMY soon. I already own it and have a few puts sold that are barely in the money. I'm good with getting exercised right here.
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Sold a BP May 40 and a May D 72.50 put today. Already have some long shares. Watching MMM close for an entry but I think that looks risky without a real trade deal.
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BWA and UPS back in the sweet spot. Way out of the money DE puts looking good too. I'm extremely light on industrials so I'm convincing myself now is as good a time as any for stocks on my watch list with good or better valuations. Sold puts on all three this morning.
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Been awhile since I updated this. I continue to sell a few puts every month.

Sold an ADM SEP 36 put today for about .85 This would be a starter position if I get exercised. In any event I received over two quarterly dividend payments in the form of premium for my trouble with the sale.

I was a little early selling puts on MMM and CAT. The entry price doesn't look as attractive now so I will roll them forward a time or two and get it closer to where I would currently like to enter. I want to sell a Deere put at some point but two industrials is enough to manage know. I don't see DE running much for the foreseeable future.

Same with selling calls on HD and APPL. I sold calls way too low and have been rolling them forward for months. It generally works out in the end but it's a hassle and very little if any new money made each month when you blow the timing real bad.
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