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strategies for this correction
#11
One thing that is different this time is we don't have a true catalyst.  What I listed a few posts ago is mostly just fear and speculation that things are going to go terrible.  We have no real inflation yet,  gasoline is under $2.00 here.  Company earnings still show solid growth.  Interest rates will still be historically low if the FED goes worst case on us in 2019.  This looks every bit like a full bear market, but perhaps it is just a correction and the market bounces in 2019.  If so I guess we should consider restoring at least some the cash position for the actual recession.  My biggest fear short-term is the politics.  The prez is going to get more vocal real soon, maybe even threaten to fire Powell.  He is not going to sit quietly while the Dow dips well below 20K.  Powell may prove he is independent until the end.  We had trade war leverage China markets were crashing and the US was hitting new highs. That game is clearly over. This is likely to be volatile for a long time.  They say no major correction is ever the same.  That's a fact in my lifetime.  This is nothing like the 1970's,1987, 2001, 2008. We are not required to figure it all out for long-term investing. I still find it fascinating while attempting to predict where we go next month.
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#12
That's what I love about this one.
There is no reason other than "stocks are expensive, interest rates are going up" which makes it a good buying opportunity if it keeps going. But it's true, stocks were a bit too expensive so this is a welcome move.

Personally I haven't touched my cash reserves yet but the time to start may be soon.
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#13
(12-22-2018, 04:42 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: That's what I love about this one.
There is no reason other than "stocks are expensive, interest rates are going up" which makes it a good buying opportunity if it keeps going. But it's true, stocks were a bit too expensive so this is a welcome move.

Personally I haven't touched my cash reserves yet but the time to start may be soon.

I haven't touched the cash I have in my emergency crash bucket.  I had other money I wanted to get into equities and clearly got too aggressive with it a few weeks ago.  A lot of investors are leaving the equity markets for safety.  Buying the dip hasn't worked for three months.  Perhaps we are seeing some capitulation now.  Nothing survives a real bear market.  A few sectors and individual stocks are still hanging on, but the list is getting really short now. I just checked CNBC and it appears my crystal ball is correct about the Prez wanting to fire the FED Chief now. That will be easier said than done. More noise for the markets.
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#14
I usually kick myself for not taking advantage of solid dips / corrections. I hem and haw and nibble until prices go back up and then wonder what I was so timid for. So I'm planning to be more aggressive than normal (for me) this week, if the current prices persist or fall further. My shopping list: XOM, T, GIS, BUD, and maybe even a little more MO. Oh, and a few shares of GOOG for giggles.

Yes, if prices keep falling, I'll wish I had waited. But I have a fair amount of dry powder, so I could keep buying in that case. With consensus so overwhelmingly in the "recession is inevitable and imminent" camp, though, it seems to me that we could be on the verge of a big rally.
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#15
Your tendency towards a heavier cash position will have it's disadvantages in total returns over time, but it's perfect for a situation like this. I see no problem nibbling now, as long as you have dry powder for the "big one" if it comes in 2019. IMO you'd be foolish to do otherwise. 90% of the media is in Armageddon mode, so just maybe we are due for a big bounce? It would be a lost opportunity to sit on your hands buying nothing now.

On a side note it's raining lemons so I am going to make some lemonade this week. I have one account that is taxable with recent losses in MO,T, and F. I will dump them this week and replace with a high div ETF that owns them all. Capture the tax losses and offset my rental property income this year. Only thing that made a real profit in 2018. Might as well dodge income taxes since it;s easy and pretty much risk free. I own plenty of those stocks in my IRA anyway, and if they should run quick, which I highly doubt, I won't miss out because the ETF will capture most of it to include dividends. The little moves add up in the end.
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#16
Whether this was just a quick bounce in the middle of a continuing downward trend, or the start of a new uptrend, you've gotta be impressed by today's move up. That was wild!
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#17
Yes it was. I was wondering when we might have a 1000 point day, but UP wouldn't have been my guess. My prediction for 2019 is a new record for 500pt intra-day swings. I'm afraid the algo moves are here to stay unless the SEC tightens up the trading curbs. I guess I can't blame the traders for doing it. The daily news noise is there to feed it most every day. Some of these large caps could be scalped for a couple points 10 times a week.
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#18
Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!
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#19
(12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers  and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!

No one in government can work with this guy. (fixed it for you)

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/blog...hieve.html
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#20
(12-27-2018, 12:34 PM)stockguru Wrote: Impressive or not. 1000 points means nothing if you give those gains back
over next few trading days. Today will cut half off the top lol. This market is being controlled by computers  and etfs. 2019 may be the worst year yet as long as Trump is leading this country. He’s clueless and doesnt know a thing about being a president. All he cares about is being better then everyone else and bragging. Just look at all cabinet members leaving at years end. No one can work with this guy. I never seen anything like this. His tweets control the market. This madness needs to end now!!

No one is buying and no one cares about the market anymore. Computers are in control. Nothing is based on fundamentals any longer. That's just the market we are in right now.  AAPL may never see $200 again, LMT $300 and the list goes on. Reminds me of INTC, DELL and CPQ when they were trading at over $200 back in 2008-2009 when the internet boom crashed. Those stocks never saw those levels again. I'm in AAPL at an average of $192 and I will not add any more. For all we know it can go back to $80-90 a share. I can sit here and say there are so many good buys in the market. But I just feel we are headed lower so why bother lol.  In the past few weeks I have added to utilities and bought some gold. Yes I said Gold stocks haha!! 
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