03-01-2019, 12:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2019, 12:45 PM by crimsonghost747.)
A couple of thoughts on Otters points.
Maybe slightly off topic but whatever.
There is definitely change coming to how electricity is handled. That is the main reason why I'm not too big on electric utilities, the reality is that (if you believe the science behind us changing the climate) then something needs to be done sooner or later. Whatever that something is, it'll be mandated by governments. Loads of European countries either have already set laws in place to abolish coal or are planning to do so. If you look at the USA for example, coal is something like 30% of the electricity generation... if you take that out you're going to have to pull a bigass bunny out of your magicians hat to replace it with. Political pull (either taxing one way of generating electricity or giving basically free money to other types of generation) will have a big effect on things going forward... and if you think you can predict what the politicians will do then good luck. :p
Then there is also the advance of technology, new things are being developed all the time and electricity is one area where you might have some significant changes. For all we know, the majority of electricity might not be even transported much less stored the same way in 30 years.
Then there is the difference between base load and peak load. You simply can not generate base load with wind or solar with the current storage options. In fact none of the current renewables are good enough for base load. Solar for example works perfectly as peak generation in Texas during the summer. The peak electricity demand is in the afternoon and that is when solar supplies the most electricity. But as you can imagine that does not work in many places. Wind is even worse.
While I have no doubt that renewables will become a more important part, the thing to remember is that unless someone invents a super good way to store electricity without losing too much in the conversion process, then renewables just cannot answer our consumption needs as they are variable and relatively unpredictable. For a good example you can look at Denmark. They use a lot of wind power and the swings in electricity spot prices can be ridiculous: Electricity might be basically free or it might cost 5 times (or more) of the average price. (which is, by the way, the highest in Europe). It all depends on the wind. And right now they are getting bailed out by their Scandinavian buddies who have a pretty good hydro setup so they can close the dam when the prices are low and open it when the price goes high. You can also compare their electricity import/export prices if you wish and you will see how destructive it is from an economical point of view.
Long story short: Careful what you invest in. All electricity is not the same and some forms, whether we like it or not (hellooo nuclear) are necessary in this world at this time. And while it goes without saying, better be wary of politicians. :p
edit: regarding Germany, since you guys have been talking about it. It's all nice and good when you start shutting down nuclear power plants in order to save the world. But then when you have to import massive amounts from France, where 70%+ is generated with nuclear, are you really saving the world or just costing your taxpayers?
Maybe slightly off topic but whatever.
There is definitely change coming to how electricity is handled. That is the main reason why I'm not too big on electric utilities, the reality is that (if you believe the science behind us changing the climate) then something needs to be done sooner or later. Whatever that something is, it'll be mandated by governments. Loads of European countries either have already set laws in place to abolish coal or are planning to do so. If you look at the USA for example, coal is something like 30% of the electricity generation... if you take that out you're going to have to pull a bigass bunny out of your magicians hat to replace it with. Political pull (either taxing one way of generating electricity or giving basically free money to other types of generation) will have a big effect on things going forward... and if you think you can predict what the politicians will do then good luck. :p
Then there is also the advance of technology, new things are being developed all the time and electricity is one area where you might have some significant changes. For all we know, the majority of electricity might not be even transported much less stored the same way in 30 years.
Then there is the difference between base load and peak load. You simply can not generate base load with wind or solar with the current storage options. In fact none of the current renewables are good enough for base load. Solar for example works perfectly as peak generation in Texas during the summer. The peak electricity demand is in the afternoon and that is when solar supplies the most electricity. But as you can imagine that does not work in many places. Wind is even worse.
While I have no doubt that renewables will become a more important part, the thing to remember is that unless someone invents a super good way to store electricity without losing too much in the conversion process, then renewables just cannot answer our consumption needs as they are variable and relatively unpredictable. For a good example you can look at Denmark. They use a lot of wind power and the swings in electricity spot prices can be ridiculous: Electricity might be basically free or it might cost 5 times (or more) of the average price. (which is, by the way, the highest in Europe). It all depends on the wind. And right now they are getting bailed out by their Scandinavian buddies who have a pretty good hydro setup so they can close the dam when the prices are low and open it when the price goes high. You can also compare their electricity import/export prices if you wish and you will see how destructive it is from an economical point of view.
Long story short: Careful what you invest in. All electricity is not the same and some forms, whether we like it or not (hellooo nuclear) are necessary in this world at this time. And while it goes without saying, better be wary of politicians. :p
edit: regarding Germany, since you guys have been talking about it. It's all nice and good when you start shutting down nuclear power plants in order to save the world. But then when you have to import massive amounts from France, where 70%+ is generated with nuclear, are you really saving the world or just costing your taxpayers?