My guess is that it will be something that nobody is talking about right now. Some country that nobody is worried about at the moment defaults and it cascades unpredictably. Or some other time bomb hidden in the derivatives markets that folks aren't focused on goes off.
But my guess is also that this bull has more room to run. Seems like every headline I read is about how the inevitable downturn MUST be imminent, given how gravity-defying the decade-long run has been. How to protect yourself. How to position yourself to profit from it. I even take you posting this thread as a data point. When everyone is so worried about or sure that something is about to happen in the markets, more often than not the opposite tends to prevail. (Kinda like when my sister the acupuncturist insisted that we HAD to start flipping houses back in 2007 or so...)
Of course, these guesses are worth exactly what you paid for them!
(Edit to add: This is not to say I'm enthusiastically buying at these prices. With this bull so long in the tooth, I'm getting more and more selective and focusing on really boring, really stable, wide moat companies that seem to be trading at fair prices. And not pulling the trigger all that often. Happy to be sitting on some cash for when better opportunities arise.)
But my guess is also that this bull has more room to run. Seems like every headline I read is about how the inevitable downturn MUST be imminent, given how gravity-defying the decade-long run has been. How to protect yourself. How to position yourself to profit from it. I even take you posting this thread as a data point. When everyone is so worried about or sure that something is about to happen in the markets, more often than not the opposite tends to prevail. (Kinda like when my sister the acupuncturist insisted that we HAD to start flipping houses back in 2007 or so...)
Of course, these guesses are worth exactly what you paid for them!
(Edit to add: This is not to say I'm enthusiastically buying at these prices. With this bull so long in the tooth, I'm getting more and more selective and focusing on really boring, really stable, wide moat companies that seem to be trading at fair prices. And not pulling the trigger all that often. Happy to be sitting on some cash for when better opportunities arise.)