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PM
#1
So are we going to get an excellent buying opportunity in PM today? This morning they announced earnings and it is being reported as a significant "miss." I'm standing by to buy some if we get a good dip out of this. Thoughts?

(I know we've got some PM fans here from this thread, so I figured I would start an "official" PM thread.)

Tom

UPDATE: Bouncing right around $88.00 so far. I was hoping for a much more serious over-reaction to the downside.
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#2
And now it is positive for the day! So much for the dip!
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#3
Transferring from other PM thread.....

$.92 would be a 7% raise, I'll take it but I'm hoping for a little better. We'll see and any raise is good. Heck for most working people if they got a 7% raise at work they'd think they died and went to heaven.

I thought PM would dip a bit more today on the miss, shows you how much I know.

I heard on CNBC yesterday there is only half the amount of stock available today as 10 years ago. I was cruising by on my way to kitchen and that's what I heard. I assume they were talking about all stocks as a whole. Think about that one for a minute!
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#4
By my math, $.92 would be an 8.2 percent raise quarter over quarter from today's $.85. It looks even better year over year (I use calendar years): in 2012 PM paid $3.24 in dividends per share; in 2013, assuming a raise to $.92 for Q3 and Q4, it would be a total of $3.54 -- a raise of 9.26 percent over 2012.

You are right that it would be lower, percentage-wise, than PM raises in recent years, and I too would love to see a bigger raise of course. But I could live with it. As you say, most people would kill for a 9 percent raise each year.

I would be surprised if it was much more than $.92, and $.90 or $.91 wouldn't surprise me, either, in light of the lowered earnings estimates. $.92 would keep the payout ratio right around 65 percent.

Regarding the number of shares available today versus 10 years ago, half seems hard to believe. But in any case, PM has been a huge contributor -- their buyback program is incredible.

Tom
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#5
Yeah I must have punched it the calculator wrong it's 8.2%.

It is hard to believe only half the number of shares are available but that's what I heard, I believe it was Rick Santelli.
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#6
I've already got plenty of tobacco in my portfolio, but man, PM is drifting back down into that range where I find it nearly irresistible to buy some more. Especially given that they should be announcing their dividend raise soon!
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#7
(08-16-2013, 09:35 AM)TomK Wrote: I've already got plenty of tobacco in my portfolio, but man, PM is drifting back down into that range where I find it nearly irresistible to buy some more. Especially given that they should be announcing their dividend raise soon!

Couldn't have said it better myself, Tom. PM is one of the few stocks that is trading below my average price per share, and I'm excited to pick up a bit more to bring that average price down and further build my position in this company that I think will be paying steadily rising dividends for decades.

I just looked on PM's investor relations site, and it appears that the Q3 dividend will be declared on September 11. Let's hope it is a healthy one! (My current prediction is that they'll raise to 91 cents, though I sure hope I'm guessing too low.)
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#8
Have had my next $500 investment in my 401k burning a hole in my pocket for the last week and finally pulled the trigger today.

Bought 6 shares of PM at $83.50 to double my position.

I wanted to get in before the expected upcoming dividend increase. Also, this recent pullback is the first time since June of 2010 that the stock has traded below the 350 day average.
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#9
Good move getting in front of the dividend increase. I bought some too a week or so ago but not at as good a price.It's pretty hard to resist as is MO.
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#10
I'm also in the boat of buying PM before the dividend increase. Just wish I got it at your price. I got in too early and got it at $85/share. Though in 10 years I won't care that I missed the bottom.
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