03-09-2016, 10:06 AM
(03-09-2016, 09:40 AM)Kerim Wrote: This WSJ article, discussing a "a deceleration in dividend increases," is getting some attention over at SA. The core of the article is as follows:
Quote:For 2016, 84 companies have made a positive move (all in the form of increases this year) versus 106 positive actions in the first two months of 2015.Furthermore, for those companies increasing their payouts, they’ve done so by 10% on average this year, compared to 13% in 2015, 18% in 2014 and 20% in 2013, by Mr. Silverblatt’s calculations.
After years of handing back cash to investors via dividends, firms are now hitting pause as they seemingly try to build up their cash and assess where the economy is headed.
I'm not sure that any DGI worth his or her salt expects dividend growth to be completely smooth. There will be good years and stingy years. Moreover, the article does not discuss which universe of stocks is under scrutiny. I suspect that if you narrowed the focus from "all stocks" to "stocks favored by DG investors," the number of increases in 2016 so far would look very close to the number in 2015. In other words, this data would seem to include every little company that increased its dividend in the relevant period in 2015, whether it has a history of predictable dividend growth or not.
Looking at the CCC list maintained by David Fish, I do see a trend of lower dividend raises.
All CCC:
2011 vs 2010: 18.6%
2012 vs 2011: 16.5%
2013 vs 2012: 13.8%
2014 vs 2013: 12.5%
2015 vs 2014: 11.0%
It is more flat for Champions:
2011 vs 2010: 6.7%
2012 vs 2011: 6.7%
2013 vs 2012: 8.2%
2014 vs 2013: 8.4%
2015 vs 2014: 7.1%