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building new portfolio
#1
Hi, I'm new to investing and just started building my portfolio the last 2 weeks. I'm 80% invested and still have 20% cash. Here are my picks:

hcp
ibm
ko
pg
rdsb
bbl
paa
vz
glw
nov
bp
bx
etn
mu
gsk


I realize that micron doesn't fit into the discussion here as it doesn't provide dividends. I am an engineer by trade and I felt that the potential is there. I will however need to average down on this stock already.

Averaged down on bbl during the chinese currency panic.

I am approximately breaking even, just fraction of percent down, which I understand is moot in the long run but gives you an idea of my entry into the market. I hope to get some feedback on how much risk I am taking or if I am overweight in some sector. I feel like I've been too greedy with the oil stocks.
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#2
Hey Py,

I imported your portfolio and grouped it by sector ... first thing I noticed is that your starting dividend yields are very high; excluding MU you're averaging about 5.2% dividend yield ... I wonder if you saw the yields as super attractive and focused a bit too much on them? Keep in the back of your mind that if your future plans involve holding the equities for a very long time, decades, you'll want to be including some smaller cap growth names that will aggressively grow their dividend over the years resulting in compounding wealth for you.

It looks like you did a pretty good job of grabbing entry points that were on the low end of the 52 week range. I noticed you didn't have any Utilities or Consumer Cyclical. Some suggestions for those sectors:

Consumer Cyclical: VFC, MCD, LOW, CBRL, MGA, GPS

Utilities: AWR, WEC, ED, SO, DUK

I really would pay no mind to where your overall portfolio is regarding profits + loss. I certainly wouldn't dump a stock ( in most circumstances ) just because it was down a bit or even a lot.

Take a look at David Fish's CCC list ( http://www.dripinvesting.org/Tools/U.S.D...mpions.xls ) if you haven't already. That's where a lot of your ideas should be coming from.

Good luck!

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#3
Keep in mind that SO is a coal heavy utility. They could be hit pretty hard as efficiency increase and carbon dioxide reduction mandates start to kick in. DUK is ahead of the curve on that issue, having already shut down 15 older coal fired plants and with plans in place to switch much more generating capacity to NG. NRG probably has the least coal exposure and the most green production in place. Problem is, their bottom line has not been doing that well. With Obama mandates in place, NRG's situation could improve dramatically however.
Alex
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#4
Was considering getting some mcd last week but went with ko instead. Actually kinda hesitant to get into utilities because I have a hard time understanding how they can sustain good growth in the future. I do admit that I picked a lot of high yield stocks before saying hmmm this is strange there might be something off with the strategy.
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#5
MCD and KO are both great established companies, but both are fighting to keep their products relevant. IMO the verdict is not out yet. Still for their history and strong current yield will likely include them as equal weight with my big cap dividend picks.
Alex
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#6
(08-17-2015, 09:07 PM)pyfish Wrote: Actually kinda hesitant to get into utilities because I have a hard time understanding how they can sustain good growth in the future. I do admit that I picked a lot of high yield stocks before saying hmmm this is strange there might be something off with the strategy.

I'd hold off on utilities for now. Few utes are what I would consider in the "good growth" category for a utility; maybe WEC, NEE and D right now for some of the changes they're implementing. Yes, they dipped in the last few months but they were pretty pricey through the winter in my opinion. The ones I watch were starting to get close to fair value the last couple months (and I nibbled a little) but in the last couple weeks they seem to have started climbing again to levels I'd stay away from.
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#7
While I agree with most points mentioned above about Utilities - one thing to keep in mind is that Utilities play a slightly different role in the portfolio. Its not meant to make you rich overnight by giving you massive stock price appreciation. Utilities provide some inertia to your portfolio giving you stability while providing income -- thats why its the first sector in the asset class used as a bond substitute.
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#8
(08-17-2015, 11:30 PM)Dividend Watcher Wrote:
(08-17-2015, 09:07 PM)pyfish Wrote: Actually kinda hesitant to get into utilities because I have a hard time understanding how they can sustain good growth in the future. I do admit that I picked a lot of high yield stocks before saying hmmm this is strange there might be something off with the strategy.

I'd hold off on utilities for now. Few utes are what I would consider in the "good growth" category for a utility; maybe WEC, NEE and D right now for some of the changes they're implementing. Yes, they dipped in the last few months but they were pretty pricey through the winter in my opinion. The ones I watch were starting to get close to fair value the last couple months (and I nibbled a little) but in the last couple weeks they seem to have started climbing again to levels I'd stay away from.

I generally agree about utilities, as they have gone back up now after the earlier selloff. I'm not seeing much for bargains in the sector. Oil & Gas and industrial stocks are probably the best bet for cheap stocks right now.
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#9
NRG is probably the deep bargain in the utility sector. However you have to be comfortable with non-GAAP cash flows. If you are, the earnings yield is in the teens. Also be aware that they are only an independent power producer, and they don't own a transmission network with regulated ROE like most utilities.

On the other hand, there is ITC (which I own) that is pure play high voltage transmission (no generation).
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#10
I personally think picking oil stocks now is not a good option, the industry is going to tank in the future. Maybe add Artificial intelligence stocks, of technology stocks in your portfolio.
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