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BP, COP, CVX, XOM and others
#1
Ouch, today really hurt. I am transferring monies to my ROTH soo. And look forward to picking some oils up and at a cheap price. I am aware it can drop some more but I will be averaging in alot cheaper than what I have.
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#2
As nice as the yields look on all of these companies right now I'm staying clear of adding to my oil positions. I think the bottom is still a long way off. Even if oil goes up today it'll be a few quarters of lag to reach EPS growth.
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#3
This week was a real ouch. The wife is underwater by over 10% on COP. So far, I'm still to the good on CVX and recently turned the DRIP back on. Patience is the word. Oddly, with the latest bounce back, both our total portfolio values are at records.

Oh, and had to drop some bad news on the kids today. Rolleyes
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#4
Things are looking horrible for oil at the moment. I did look into buying some of these bigger names in February/March but decided that it wasn't time yet. And I still think it's not the time to buy, I didn't anticipate oil prices going this low and it's not sustainable forever... the price will bounce back at some point but probably won't reach the high levels it was before and to be honest the EPS growth for most of the oil companies is looking grim at the moment.

I do have a small position in PBT and a tiny bit of USO. USO will be sold sometime in 2016, PBT is a buy & hold forever kind of thing.
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#5
CVX, which is a position of mine, has weathered several 20-30% declines in the past 20 years and have been able to still increase dividend for the past 19 years in a row.

Tough to buy looking for a bottom but it really energizes your returns over time.
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#6
Dividend was mentioned 24 times on CVX's conference call, with management saying the dividend is top priority.

Dividend was mentioned 14 times on COP's conference call, and was the first thing addressed on the call.

Dividend was only mentioned twice on Exxon's Conference call, but I don't think there is much concern about theirs.

$45 is not a sustainable price for crude oil. Short of worldwide economic collapse I don't see crude staying this low for more than another 6-12 months. There has been too much capital cutbacks in exploration for the price to stay that low for long. This is a supply price drop, not a demand one, when supply drops, higher prices will return and big oil profits will return as well.

My $0.02
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#7
There are some early signs of supple drops coming. A cutback from Saudi might see the oil prices stabilize.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-a...2015-07-29
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#8
I think the 6 to 12 month time frame is correct.

The decline rate for fracking wells is quite high, so the oversupply will decrease rapidly.
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#9
I wouldn't overthink this by trying to get the timing just right. Buy these mammajammas while they are on sale. If they drop more, then buy more and average down.
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#10
(08-01-2015, 04:37 PM)Kerim Wrote: I wouldn't overthink this by trying to get the timing just right. Buy these mammajammas while they are on sale. If they drop more, then buy more and average down.

Thats the right attitude, Kerim. I think Chevron has fallen enough to warrant another purchase in my portfolio to average down.
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