Dash's Portfolio

[Dash]

Been lurking here for a while, but never had a chance to show the portfolio.

My strategy is extremely conservative, as I have a very long term outlook. It centers around the same basic principles that most DGIs use; I find great companies I can understand and invest in them at fair prices.

However, I typically (1) DCA into stocks I want that I feel are core holdings and or stocks with higher growth potential. I basically nibble tiny bites out of several great companies. This is the most simple baseline for building any portfolio. I combine this with weekly evaluation of my watch list and holdings, and (2) add in to the cheapest/highest return potential stocks of that time. Finally, I create a list of target buy numbers using a 12% discount rate and a 6% dgr, or for low yielding stocks I use a DCF calculator, also with a 12% discount rate; stocks that break the threshold I buy in as large a bulk as my cash flow permits.

This has allowed me to build positions into companies that are rarely cheap, fair value, and cheap.

Holdings as of today (from largest to smallest):

JNJ
TD
XOM
AAPL
UL
QCOM
BBL
TROW
EMR
INTC
NKE
BRK.B
GOOGL
SBUX
DIS
HSY

Thanks for reading!

[rapidacid]

Good stuff there Dash ... thanks for sharing

[ChadR]

Very good portfolio. Mine has a lot of overlap with yours. What stocks do you have on your watch list?

[Dash]

(06-23-2015, 02:47 PM)ChadR Wrote: Very good portfolio. Mine has a lot of overlap with yours. What stocks do you have on your watch list?

UNP, V, O, PSA, MA, PM, KO, PEP, MMM, VIAB, NSC, OKS, CVX, GE, ED

Some are just too expensive in general, or have some financial negatives that require me to only be comfortable to buy cheap.

For example, I wouldn't buy OKS, PM, ED or even CVX at fair value. I want them cheap or don't want them.

V, O, MA, MMM to me are just way too expensive right now IMO.

And call me a traitor to DGI, but I just don't see the next 50 years of Coke and Pepsi being what they previous 50 years have been. Soda/fake foods/transfats are the new tobacco. They will continue to exist and likely grow overseas but in the US the tide has turned, and I just don't love companies whose future growth is more dependent on foreign countries that I don't really understand. So paying over 20 times earnings for KO or PEP is not something I'm willing to do. If that means I never get them, I'm ok with that.

[navyasw02]

(06-23-2015, 05:41 PM)Dash Wrote:

(06-23-2015, 02:47 PM)ChadR Wrote: Very good portfolio. Mine has a lot of overlap with yours. What stocks do you have on your watch list?

UNP, V, O, PSA, MA, PM, KO, PEP, MMM, VIAB, NSC, OKS, CVX, GE, ED

Some are just too expensive in general, or have some financial negatives that require me to only be comfortable to buy cheap.

For example, I wouldn't buy OKS, PM, ED or even CVX at fair value. I want them cheap or don't want them.

V, O, MA, MMM to me are just way too expensive right now IMO.

And call me a traitor to DGI, but I just don't see the next 50 years of Coke and Pepsi being what they previous 50 years have been. Soda/fake foods/transfats are the new tobacco. They will continue to exist and likely grow overseas but in the US the tide has turned, and I just don't love companies whose future growth is more dependent on foreign countries that I don't really understand. So paying over 20 times earnings for KO or PEP is not something I'm willing to do. If that means I never get them, I'm ok with that.

I tend to disagree because both of these brands have expanded well past their core of soft drinks into bottled water, sports drinks, energy drinks, and even quaker oats and humus.

[Kerim]

Hey Dash -- I agree it is a nice collection of stocks you're putting together. And I appreciate your discipline. It can be tough to be patient and wait for your price on a stock you'd really like to own. To me, the first rule of investing is "know thyself," and it sounds like you do!

(06-23-2015, 05:41 PM)Dash Wrote: And call me a traitor to DGI, but I just don't see the next 50 years of Coke and Pepsi being what they previous 50 years have been. Soda/fake foods/transfats are the new tobacco. They will continue to exist and likely grow overseas but in the US the tide has turned, and I just don't love companies whose future growth is more dependent on foreign countries that I don't really understand. So paying over 20 times earnings for KO or PEP is not something I'm willing to do. If that means I never get them, I'm ok with that.

I think there really is something to this point. I've thought about it a lot, but have never really nailed it down. I would (and have) happily buy KO or PEP on a nice dip, but I suspect that you are right that the next 30 years will look little like the last. It is easy to be lulled into the DG narrative by looking at the last 30 years, but I think that can be misleading because the last 30 years, especially for a name like KO, included the double tail-wind of huge international expansion and the retail popularization of stock ownership. I do not think this invalidates the DG philosophy in any way, but it certainly tempers my enthusiasm about some of the "core" DG companies.

Don't get me wrong, I think KO is a great and profitable company that will continue to find ways to deliver EPS and dividend growth going forward. But valuation will matter much more in deciding whether to jump in than it did, say, 15 or 20 years ago. And I think it is possible to find other DG names that have better valuation and potential.

So there, we can be traitors together, Dash!

[EricL]

(06-23-2015, 05:41 PM)Dash Wrote: And call me a traitor to DGI, but I just don't see the next 50 years of Coke and Pepsi being what they previous 50 years have been. Soda/fake foods/transfats are the new tobacco. They will continue to exist and likely grow overseas but in the US the tide has turned, and I just don't love companies whose future growth is more dependent on foreign countries that I don't really understand. So paying over 20 times earnings for KO or PEP is not something I'm willing to do. If that means I never get them, I'm ok with that.

Coke is so much more than soda. They have 20 brands with over $1B in sales and are continuing to grow into other beverages besides soda.

[Dash]

(06-24-2015, 11:13 AM)EricL Wrote:

(06-23-2015, 05:41 PM)Dash Wrote: And call me a traitor to DGI, but I just don't see the next 50 years of Coke and Pepsi being what they previous 50 years have been. Soda/fake foods/transfats are the new tobacco. They will continue to exist and likely grow overseas but in the US the tide has turned, and I just don't love companies whose future growth is more dependent on foreign countries that I don't really understand. So paying over 20 times earnings for KO or PEP is not something I'm willing to do. If that means I never get them, I'm ok with that.

Coke is so much more than soda. They have 20 brands with over $1B in sales and are continuing to grow into other beverages besides soda.

Oh no denying that Coke is so much more than soda. But their flagship product, the driving force for those amazing years, is not going to carry them in that same way going forward. And while I absolutely think they will continue to be a solid company going forward, I'm less comfortable buying them at anything more than a discount.

They are venturing out into other brands, but it is IMO speculative to assume Zico and Powerade will carry them the way Coke and Sprite did. It reminds me of E-cigarettes versus smokable tobacco.

[Roadmap2Retire]

Really high quality names in your portfolio, Dash. Your shortlist looks good too.

Thanks for sharing

[earthtodan]

Agreed with your sentiments regarding KO. While I believe that sugar will continue to sell well throughout my lifetime, I'm investing in that market by owning NVO and SNY.

[Dash]

(06-24-2015, 10:47 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: Really high quality names in your portfolio, Dash. Your shortlist looks good too.

Thanks for sharing

Thanks. I enjoy reading your site.

[rayray]

Nice portfolio!

I agree that KO is overvalued at the moment but I'm going to go ahead and bet that they'll be around for another 100 plus years. Cigarettes too.