Through Portfolio123 I can back-test my hypotheses on dividend growth. Through downloadable spreadsheet magic, I extracted dividends paid on a one-time $10,000 investment in my proprietary buy and sell rules and rankings. I'm leveraged 181% and I have a proprietary hedging strategy. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME! Below are the dividend payments by year since the year 2000.
Year Amount
2000 Total $554.87
2001 Total $1,085.54
2002 Total $1,484.45
2003 Total $1,949.54
2004 Total $2,623.98
2005 Total $5,469.23
2006 Total $8,001.05
2007 Total $8,924.21
2008 Total $13,359.57
2009 Total $14,741.59
2010 Total $27,963.79
2011 Total $32,472.86
2012 Total $32,341.64
2013 Total $37,525.91
2014 Total $45,898.63
Empirical evidence supporting the dividend growth style. Who wouldn't want $45k in annual dividend income on a $10k investment and 15 year period?
Posts: 8
Threads: 0
Joined: May 2015
Reputation:
0
I'm not understanding. If your method is "proprietary", and you won't divulge it here, why post results? We obviously can't duplicate them, and you don't offer to help anywhere, so I'm wondering why you post this. To brag? Or maybe you're selling your method somewhere? Help me out...
(06-19-2015, 07:56 PM)800peace Wrote: Through Portfolio123 I can back-test my hypotheses on dividend growth. Through downloadable spreadsheet magic, I extracted dividends paid on a one-time $10,000 investment in my proprietary buy and sell rules and rankings. I'm leveraged 181% and I have a proprietary hedging strategy. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME! Below are the dividend payments by year since the year 2000.
Year Amount
2000 Total $554.87
2001 Total $1,085.54
2002 Total $1,484.45
2003 Total $1,949.54
2004 Total $2,623.98
2005 Total $5,469.23
2006 Total $8,001.05
2007 Total $8,924.21
2008 Total $13,359.57
2009 Total $14,741.59
2010 Total $27,963.79
2011 Total $32,472.86
2012 Total $32,341.64
2013 Total $37,525.91
2014 Total $45,898.63
Empirical evidence supporting the dividend growth style. Who wouldn't want $45k in annual dividend income on a $10k investment and 15 year period?
(06-19-2015, 09:45 PM)mikejody Wrote: I'm not understanding. If your method is "proprietary", and you won't divulge it here, why post results? We obviously can't duplicate them, and you don't offer to help anywhere, so I'm wondering why you post this. To brag? Or maybe you're selling your method somewhere? Help me out...
(06-19-2015, 07:56 PM)800peace Wrote: Through Portfolio123 I can back-test my hypotheses on dividend growth. Through downloadable spreadsheet magic, I extracted dividends paid on a one-time $10,000 investment in my proprietary buy and sell rules and rankings. I'm leveraged 181% and I have a proprietary hedging strategy. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME! Below are the dividend payments by year since the year 2000.
Year Amount
2000 Total $554.87
2001 Total $1,085.54
2002 Total $1,484.45
2003 Total $1,949.54
2004 Total $2,623.98
2005 Total $5,469.23
2006 Total $8,001.05
2007 Total $8,924.21
2008 Total $13,359.57
2009 Total $14,741.59
2010 Total $27,963.79
2011 Total $32,472.86
2012 Total $32,341.64
2013 Total $37,525.91
2014 Total $45,898.63
Empirical evidence supporting the dividend growth style. Who wouldn't want $45k in annual dividend income on a $10k investment and 15 year period?
Bragging is certainly a point, but I want dgi doubters to see empirical evidence that dividend growth investing is a philosophy that works. I am a finance professional, however my intention for posting on dgf is not to sell services, but to have fun discussing something I'm passionate about.
Posts: 8
Threads: 0
Joined: May 2015
Reputation:
0
You're doing far more than dividend growth investing. You are hedged, you are leveraged, and you have buy and sell criteria which you are aren't sharing. So enjoy the boasting  .
(06-20-2015, 01:58 PM)800peace Wrote: (06-19-2015, 09:45 PM)mikejody Wrote: I'm not understanding. If your method is "proprietary", and you won't divulge it here, why post results? We obviously can't duplicate them, and you don't offer to help anywhere, so I'm wondering why you post this. To brag? Or maybe you're selling your method somewhere? Help me out...
(06-19-2015, 07:56 PM)800peace Wrote: Through Portfolio123 I can back-test my hypotheses on dividend growth. Through downloadable spreadsheet magic, I extracted dividends paid on a one-time $10,000 investment in my proprietary buy and sell rules and rankings. I'm leveraged 181% and I have a proprietary hedging strategy. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME! Below are the dividend payments by year since the year 2000.
Year Amount
2000 Total $554.87
2001 Total $1,085.54
2002 Total $1,484.45
2003 Total $1,949.54
2004 Total $2,623.98
2005 Total $5,469.23
2006 Total $8,001.05
2007 Total $8,924.21
2008 Total $13,359.57
2009 Total $14,741.59
2010 Total $27,963.79
2011 Total $32,472.86
2012 Total $32,341.64
2013 Total $37,525.91
2014 Total $45,898.63
Empirical evidence supporting the dividend growth style. Who wouldn't want $45k in annual dividend income on a $10k investment and 15 year period?
Bragging is certainly a point, but I want dgi doubters to see empirical evidence that dividend growth investing is a philosophy that works. I am a finance professional, however my intention for posting on dgf is not to sell services, but to have fun discussing something I'm passionate about.
(06-20-2015, 03:10 PM)mikejody Wrote: You're doing far more than dividend growth investing. You are hedged, you are leveraged, and you have buy and sell criteria which you are aren't sharing. So enjoy the boasting .
(06-20-2015, 01:58 PM)800peace Wrote: (06-19-2015, 09:45 PM)mikejody Wrote: I'm not understanding. If your method is "proprietary", and you won't divulge it here, why post results? We obviously can't duplicate them, and you don't offer to help anywhere, so I'm wondering why you post this. To brag? Or maybe you're selling your method somewhere? Help me out...
(06-19-2015, 07:56 PM)800peace Wrote: Through Portfolio123 I can back-test my hypotheses on dividend growth. Through downloadable spreadsheet magic, I extracted dividends paid on a one-time $10,000 investment in my proprietary buy and sell rules and rankings. I'm leveraged 181% and I have a proprietary hedging strategy. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME! Below are the dividend payments by year since the year 2000.
Year Amount
2000 Total $554.87
2001 Total $1,085.54
2002 Total $1,484.45
2003 Total $1,949.54
2004 Total $2,623.98
2005 Total $5,469.23
2006 Total $8,001.05
2007 Total $8,924.21
2008 Total $13,359.57
2009 Total $14,741.59
2010 Total $27,963.79
2011 Total $32,472.86
2012 Total $32,341.64
2013 Total $37,525.91
2014 Total $45,898.63
Empirical evidence supporting the dividend growth style. Who wouldn't want $45k in annual dividend income on a $10k investment and 15 year period?
Bragging is certainly a point, but I want dgi doubters to see empirical evidence that dividend growth investing is a philosophy that works. I am a finance professional, however my intention for posting on dgf is not to sell services, but to have fun discussing something I'm passionate about.
Dividend growth is the meat of what is going on... I don't do a lot of selling... My portfolio turnover ranges from 1.5% - 7% annually, which includes the effects of entering and exiting hedges. I think most would agree my turnover is low. The leverage I use survived The Great Recession without a margin call. I hesitate to share execution of dividend growth because, an amateur will read what I say and completely screw-up their investments... But, I'm not completely closed-off... Especially, if you wanna trade ideas.
Posts: 1,002
Threads: 85
Joined: Apr 2015
Reputation:
16
Notice that there is a huge jump in dividend income from 2009 to 2010, almost doubles. This reminds me of the quote, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered." If utilized correctly the 2008/2009 fiance/real estate fiasco was a great opportunity for investors.
Question: Did you strictly stay within the realm of DGI stocks or did you venture in and out of that investment strategy within the last 10 years?
Same rules and rankings for the last 15 years. Strictly dividend paying stocks yielding at least the YTM on the 10-yr t-note at time of purchase. As a CPA that has worked for over 300 companies, an investor for 15 years, and a researcher for 5 years, my core competency has become financial statement analysis. I know how to analyze a company's ability to to satisfy creditor obligations and increase dividend payments. I don't bat 1000, but I'm pretty good at finding companies that will increase dividends.
I'm not just a client, I'm the Player President! I even put my Mom into this portfolio.
Posts: 8
Threads: 0
Joined: May 2015
Reputation:
0
I'm thinking you might be selling something? Is there a website we can look at?
(06-21-2015, 08:01 PM)800peace Wrote: Same rules and rankings for the last 15 years. Strictly dividend paying stocks yielding at least the YTM on the 10-yr t-note at time of purchase. As a CPA that has worked for over 300 companies, an investor for 15 years, and a researcher for 5 years, my core competency has become financial statement analysis. I know how to analyze a company's ability to to satisfy creditor obligations and increase dividend payments. I don't bat 1000, but I'm pretty good at finding companies that will increase dividends.
I'm not just a client, I'm the Player President! I even put my Mom into this portfolio.
(06-21-2015, 09:01 PM)mikejody Wrote: I'm thinking you might be selling something? Is there a website we can look at?
(06-21-2015, 08:01 PM)800peace Wrote: Same rules and rankings for the last 15 years. Strictly dividend paying stocks yielding at least the YTM on the 10-yr t-note at time of purchase. As a CPA that has worked for over 300 companies, an investor for 15 years, and a researcher for 5 years, my core competency has become financial statement analysis. I know how to analyze a company's ability to to satisfy creditor obligations and increase dividend payments. I don't bat 1000, but I'm pretty good at finding companies that will increase dividends.
I'm not just a client, I'm the Player President! I even put my Mom into this portfolio.
I didn't come here to solicit, but I do advise checking-out portfolio123.com. You can come up with your own hypotheses and test them in the market place back to the year 1999. They have a 15 day free trial... If you try it and accomplish alpha, I'd like to exchange ideas with you.
OK, I tweaked my hedge, which allowed me to increase leverage, which increased the dividends received. I made another tweak to decrease my turnover, and now annual turnover averages 0.45%. Now I have the following historical dividend payments, net of margin interest paid, on a one-time $10,000 investment:
Year Amount
1999 $488
2000 $624
2001 $1,713
2002 $2,271
2003 $2,750
2004 $3,831
2005 $8,432
2006 $12,962
2007 $26,664
2008 $24,521
2009 $27,514
2010 $49,609
2011 $64,455
2012 $67,319
2013 $71,087
2014 $93,426
2015 Estimate $122,420
The payback period is 6 years. More than the original principle is being paid in annual dividends after 8 years. Telling doubters where to stick it after 12 years.
I like this time horizon because it includes 1) internet bubble popping, 2) 9/11, 3) housing bubble popping, and 4) The Great Recession. Below are some risk measures since inception in 1999:
Model
Inception Date 01/02/99
Total Return (%) 29,393.21
Annualized Return (%) 41.27
Max Drawdown (%) -38.37
Standard Deviation (%) 27.71
Sharpe Ratio 1.35
Sortino Ratio 1.90
Correlation with Benchmark 0.33
R-Squared 0.11
Beta 0.45
Alpha (%) (annualized) 36.30
If compounding interest is the 8th wonder of the world, dgi is the 9th wonder of the world.
You do realize that this means nothing if we don't understand what your strategy does, right?
(06-24-2015, 03:10 AM)daat99 Wrote: You do realize that this means nothing if we don't understand what your strategy does, right?
It depends on your objectives. If you're trying to make a good case for the power of investing in companies that can grow dividends, then this means a lot, because it is straight empirical evidence. If you're feeling entitled to free financial advice, no matter how rude you are... Then no... this means nothing.
|
