Phillip Morris International

[NilesMike]

(03-15-2015, 06:06 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 05:38 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-14-2015, 01:29 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:

(03-11-2015, 12:54 PM)Kerim Wrote: such as plain packaging initiatives.

Just last week the UK government made a decision for plain packaging.. think it was supposed to start at the beginning of 2016 but I'm not sure on that.

I don't know what the situation is on the other side of the pond but in Europe it's not only the governments that are anti tobacco. It's more and more of the people... smoking just isn't viewed as "cool" anymore and year after year the amount of smokers is dropping. It's a change in people's attitude and it's noticeable.

I hold a very small position in PM (one of my smallest ones) and I'm definitely not buying more. I even thought about selling but decided to see what happens and enjoy the steady dividend stream.

I have not seen any credible report to support the notion that smoking is on the down swing in Europe.

Perhaps you are not looking in the right place? Almost every report out there shows that the percentage of smokers is declining. A quick Google search reveals a plethora of such reports. Heres an exhaustive report compiled by WHO.

http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/20...562099.pdf

Couldn't open your link but, the total number of smokers is not decreasing. The rate of smokers is decreasing but as the population increases, the number of smokers is offset.

7% more cigarettes were sold in 2013 than 2001. That is not a decrease.

[navyasw02]

Additionally big tobacco is getting into ecigs which are growing in popularity.

[Kerim]

PM below $77 this morning. Yield up to 5.2 percent. Not sure how much longer I can resist!

[EricL]

(03-18-2015, 08:48 AM)Kerim Wrote: PM below $77 this morning. Yield up to 5.2 percent. Not sure how much longer I can resist!

Still waiting for a while to add again here. As long as the dollar keeps rising, PM will continue to struggle. I don't see the dollar strength ending any time soon, especially with the Fed talking about raising interest rates.

With a near 100% payout ratio, an all but suspended share buyback program, and a high debt load, the risk/reward just isn't there for me with a 5.2% yield. I'd rather add a utility with a 4% yield that has a much clearer future.

[DividendDragon]

The strong $ has stoped my buying of US stocks for the foreseeable future. Strong growth announced in the UK here today with our budget so may be hope of a return to a reasonable rate.

Such a shame, I REALLY fancy JNJ at these levels. As for Phillip Morris the payout % and debt really scares me.

Worth a quick read if anyone is vaguely interested in my struggles to buy US stocks: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/19...dbath-4545

[Roadmap2Retire]

(03-16-2015, 08:37 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 06:06 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 05:38 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-14-2015, 01:29 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:

(03-11-2015, 12:54 PM)Kerim Wrote: such as plain packaging initiatives.

Just last week the UK government made a decision for plain packaging.. think it was supposed to start at the beginning of 2016 but I'm not sure on that.

I don't know what the situation is on the other side of the pond but in Europe it's not only the governments that are anti tobacco. It's more and more of the people... smoking just isn't viewed as "cool" anymore and year after year the amount of smokers is dropping. It's a change in people's attitude and it's noticeable.

I hold a very small position in PM (one of my smallest ones) and I'm definitely not buying more. I even thought about selling but decided to see what happens and enjoy the steady dividend stream.

I have not seen any credible report to support the notion that smoking is on the down swing in Europe.

Perhaps you are not looking in the right place? Almost every report out there shows that the percentage of smokers is declining. A quick Google search reveals a plethora of such reports. Heres an exhaustive report compiled by WHO.

http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/20...562099.pdf

Couldn't open your link but, the total number of smokers is not decreasing. The rate of smokers is decreasing but as the population increases, the number of smokers is offset.

7% more cigarettes were sold in 2013 than 2001. That is not a decrease.

NilesMike,
With all due respect, I think you are in denial. A quick search on Google will show you all sorts of trends and charts from across the industry and independent studies, be it from health organizations such as WHO or CDC or studies conducted in universities. Even PM's annual report clearly shows the volume of cigarettes is declining in all geographic regions.
Yes, the profit is rising year over year, but that is because the cigarette prices have increased significantly to balance out the declining volume.

[DividendDragon]

There's no doubting that smoking as a social trend is in decline.

I like the look of British American Tobacco but with a view to hold for 30-40years it doesn't appeal to me.
If you want to put your money to work now rather than grow I think there are more compelling companies to purchase out there.

[rapidacid]

Buy mighty MO and get a free 6 pack of Miller Lite!

[NilesMike]

(03-18-2015, 10:26 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote:

(03-16-2015, 08:37 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 06:06 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 05:38 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-14-2015, 01:29 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Just last week the UK government made a decision for plain packaging.. think it was supposed to start at the beginning of 2016 but I'm not sure on that.

I don't know what the situation is on the other side of the pond but in Europe it's not only the governments that are anti tobacco. It's more and more of the people... smoking just isn't viewed as "cool" anymore and year after year the amount of smokers is dropping. It's a change in people's attitude and it's noticeable.

I hold a very small position in PM (one of my smallest ones) and I'm definitely not buying more. I even thought about selling but decided to see what happens and enjoy the steady dividend stream.

I have not seen any credible report to support the notion that smoking is on the down swing in Europe.

Perhaps you are not looking in the right place? Almost every report out there shows that the percentage of smokers is declining. A quick Google search reveals a plethora of such reports. Heres an exhaustive report compiled by WHO.

http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/20...562099.pdf

Couldn't open your link but, the total number of smokers is not decreasing. The rate of smokers is decreasing but as the population increases, the number of smokers is offset.

7% more cigarettes were sold in 2013 than 2001. That is not a decrease.

NilesMike,
With all due respect, I think you are in denial. A quick search on Google will show you all sorts of trends and charts from across the industry and independent studies, be it from health organizations such as WHO or CDC or studies conducted in universities. Even PM's annual report clearly shows the volume of cigarettes is declining in all geographic regions.
Yes, the profit is rising year over year, but that is because the cigarette prices have increased significantly to balance out the declining volume.

You mean like this one (1st one listed in search for worldwide cigarette consuption).?

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...-climbing/

[Roadmap2Retire]

(03-18-2015, 08:25 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-18-2015, 10:26 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote:

(03-16-2015, 08:37 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 06:06 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote:

(03-15-2015, 05:38 PM)NilesMike Wrote: I have not seen any credible report to support the notion that smoking is on the down swing in Europe.

Perhaps you are not looking in the right place? Almost every report out there shows that the percentage of smokers is declining. A quick Google search reveals a plethora of such reports. Heres an exhaustive report compiled by WHO.

http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/20...562099.pdf

Couldn't open your link but, the total number of smokers is not decreasing. The rate of smokers is decreasing but as the population increases, the number of smokers is offset.

7% more cigarettes were sold in 2013 than 2001. That is not a decrease.

NilesMike,
With all due respect, I think you are in denial. A quick search on Google will show you all sorts of trends and charts from across the industry and independent studies, be it from health organizations such as WHO or CDC or studies conducted in universities. Even PM's annual report clearly shows the volume of cigarettes is declining in all geographic regions.
Yes, the profit is rising year over year, but that is because the cigarette prices have increased significantly to balance out the declining volume.

You mean like this one (1st one listed in search for worldwide cigarette consuption).?

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...-climbing/

Its easy to pick one report that agrees with your point, when every other report is indicating otherwise, isnt it?

See report here: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/20...562099.pdf
See annual reports from

• Philip Morris - (overview of volume in page 2) - http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_file...index.html
  
• Altria - https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved...198133.PDF
  
• British American Tobacco - http://www.bat.com/group/sites/uk__9d9kc...penelement
  

Each of those annual reports confirms that the total volume of cigarette sales is declining and compares their decline rate vs. industry-wide decline rates.

[benjamen]

While it has been fun to watch you two argue, it seems you are both partially correct. Many tobacco companies, including PM, have been selling a smaller volume of cigarettes. However, total global consumption of cigarettes is actually increasing. In what countries are volumes increasing (it seems to mostly be in the far east) and what companies are dominate in those markets (JTI, BAT, and state monopolies seem to prevalent)?

[Roadmap2Retire]

Thanks for chiming in, benjamen.
The market is definitely on the upswing in China - where there are more than 350M smokers. That market is off-limits to investors though, since its dominated by the government run CNTC. Im sure theres a small part of the market which is fought over by the international brands.