Apple (AAPL)

[TomK]

Wow, investors were sure unimpressed with Apple's presentation today. Down over 2.5% and still falling as the show wrapped up. I would have loved to see some whole new product too, and the Elvis Costello thing was a bit of a tease without introducing iRadio or anything similar.

But, I have to admit that the new 5S looks pretty dammed cool. Would love to have the improved camera and the fingerprint sensor could be a true game-changer with respect to security.

Thoughts?

[Kerim]

Huh, ended the day still down more than 2.25 percent.

Watching Apple the company and AAPL the stock makes me sometimes think that I'll never really understand investing. I own 25 shares at an average price per share of about $499. So I'm about break-even on the shares, though I've enjoyed a few dividends now.

I'm comfortable and happy holding the shares because I believe that they will be able to pay and raise the dividend for a good many years to come, but I have completely given up trying to predict, or even get comfortable with the share price movement. Sometimes I think Apple is saddled with grossly unfair expectations -- the stock gets killed because the company hasn't revolutionized the world, yet again, in the last 18 months. Every other stock on the planet is allowed to just iterate and improve within its industry, but if every two years Apple does not define and conquer a whole new market segment that never previously existed, everyone bemoans that Apple's innovation is dead and the stock languishes? Meanwhile, they are printing money selling devices as fast as they can to an incredibly loyal customer base.

I get that they are in the tech space, and I'm going to write another post after this one in another thread about how I am considering stopping automatic reinvestment in my tech holdings. But even if Apple never innovated again, I think the stock price is unfairly beaten down.

All of that said, I too was disappointed that today's presentation did not include "one more thing." But I agree with you tom that the 5S looks excellent, and the new features may actually get me -- quite the cheapskate -- to upgrade when I don't really *need* to (from my 4S). I definitely want the better camera, and I am extremely eager to hear that the fingerprint scanner works as advertised. I would be glad to hand over a lot of money to upgrade to a security approach that might start to free me from the password hell that we all currently put up with. I also thought the motion-control chip / health features thing sounded intriguing, and possibly Apple's bridge to wearable tech (if they aren't making that approach obsolete already).

[Shawnjeffrey]

The market is certainly unimpressed. Down almost 5% in premarket. Anyone buying?

[ronn38]

I'm already into Apple as far as I intend, bough in some time ago. Just reinvesting the divs and waiting to see what the next decade brings :-)

Ronn

[TomK]

(09-11-2013, 08:26 AM)Shawnjeffrey Wrote: Anyone buying?

I'm very tempted to make a play -- either a few more shares long or an options play -- but will probably not. I'm tempted because I'm coming to think that maybe AAPL is smarter than we are. They get punished every time they fail to do what "the market" *wants* or *hopes* they will do. No cheaper phone to compete for market share? Kill the stock. No iWatch yet? Kill the stock. Etc. But market share has never seemed to be AAPL's goal, and they have consistently refused to make products that aren't great and that don't make complete sense just to be on the bandwagon. They are content to make excellent, premium-priced products for the segment of the market -- however large that is -- that is willing and able to pay for them. And to make gobs of money in the process.

I probably will not, however, because like ronn38 I am already about as exposed to Apple as I want to be, and because like Kerim I have come to be very wary of trying to make ANY predictions about AAPL's stock price.

[EricL]

I own AAPL and don't plan on selling but I'm not buying any more here either.

Too many other tasty fish in the sea, and those don't give me as much heartburn.

[ChadR]

I also own AAPL. Bought 12 shares when it dropped below $400. If I didn't already have it over 4% of my portfolio, I would be buying at these prices. Though if it drops below $450, I will probably pick up 3 more shares. The yield is getting too hard to ignore.

[TomK]

Wow. Apple is the ONLY red stock on my entire watch list today. And not just down a little, but down 1.5% when the market generally is up about 1%, with many individual stocks doing even better than that. Apple could certainly go down further from here, but if I were looking for an entry point, this looks as good as any to me.

[Shawnjeffrey]

Yeah, of the 17 stocks I currently own, apple is the only one in the red today. When I asked last week if anyone was buying, I was thinking I would pick up a couple more shares if it got to 450. About there now.

[ChadR]

Unless there is a big jump tomorrow or I get too busy at work, it will be hard for me not to pick up 3 more shares tomorrow. Might as well push it up to 15 shares. Though it's already a higher percentage of my portfolio than I would like.

[TomK]

(09-16-2013, 03:20 PM)ChadR Wrote: Unless there is a big jump tomorrow or I get too busy at work, it will be hard for me not to pick up 3 more shares tomorrow. Might as well push it up to 15 shares. Though it's already a higher percentage of my portfolio than I would like.

This happens to me sometimes -- though not with Apple or other tech stocks, which I am *generally* shy about from the get-go. But some stock that I like a lot will get cheap and I just can't not buy more of it, even if it is already an arguably too-high percentage of my portfolio. Then I like to remind myself that one day my portfolio will be a whole lot bigger than it is now, and so I am really just loading up my eventual portfolio at opportune times. Which is exactly what we ought to be doing, right? I think there was a good discussion of all this in the "oversize positions" thread.

[Kerim]

If I weren't so gun-shy about Apple, I'd be looking at some long-term call options. Like the Jan 2015 $450 call that closed at $58.22 today.