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12-08-2014, 10:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2014, 02:15 AM by Dividend Watcher.)
I had to go back and look. As best as I can tell, you're holding: AAPL, KMI, KO, OHI, PM, T, SBUX & COP -- correct? Don't remember all that's on the watchlist.
I went back to my portfolios & watchlists looking for anything that said "buy me".
AFL still seems undervalued but with Japan hanging over their head, this is going to take a while to work itself out. I just sold a covered call on part of it today just to generate a little extra cash. I don't think it's going anywhere for a while.
JNJ you could argue is in it's normal range and still has a promising future.
CVX interests me here but I'm overallocated so I'll just watch & reinvest.
MCD took a spanking today. You might find an interesting price in the next few days if you can bear watching it languish for the next year.
TUP I keep going back and looking at trying to find a solid yes or no reasoning. I'm finding nothing compelling me either way here but if it dropped a few more points I'd begin to get convinced. I'd like a little more margin of safety since the majority of their sales are outside the US.
COP is a good choice here. That yield can sooth a lot of pain while waiting. During the recession, I sat with a double-digit loss in my wife's portfolio for almost a year so patience may be required.
The rest of the oil patch is looking pretty good now and for the next 6 months so I wouldn't rush. It may take a while for oil to come back up. You didn't miss the deals in the oil-related companies.
In other words, I'm not finding a lot of reasonable choices here. If you're really willing to hold for the long term and don't mind a little underperformance for a while, you could always look at some of the lower yield/faster growers such as V, MC, CHD, GWW, TJX, or NKE to name a few. All are a little pricey to me and the yield may buy some bubblegum but you're young so you have a long flight path.
Choices, choices!
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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(12-08-2014, 10:35 PM)Be Here Now Wrote: I am interested in CVX but will wait a bit longer before nibbling.
If it gets down much below $90, I believe I might have some slightly used children for sale on eBay.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
CVX hit a new 52 week low today and 4% yield. The 5% yield price is $85.60. CVX has not been in that territory since the selloff of 2011. I will back up the truck if it gets there.
CVX is at or very close to a safe valuation. Morningstar rates fair value at $124 and 'consider buying' at $99. In my experience, anything that close to 'consider buying' is a bargain.
Then consider current yield of 4%. That is very close to what it was at the lows of 2008-09, when WTI got down to the low 30s. CVX continued to make money and raise its dividend then, and I think now will be no different. I have started nibbling.
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Currently have on my watch list for my Roth:
XOM
O
GILD
AAPL
SBUX(i want MORE!)
SO
EMR
and a few others.
Ill make a new thread with pretty excel sheets this weekend when I get some free time.
