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I give up! I've had it! I take some profits and have a little cash sitting around doing nothing, but I don't want to buy at these levels, but I want my money to be working for me. I don't want to start a new position because as sure as I do, the market drops 30% tomorrow. The only answer seems to me, is to take a deep breath, do nothing financial and go cut the yard.
I can watch my net worth grow or sink in the market a penny at a time while I wait for the inevitable. "There's no education in the second kick of a mule".
Cheers,
kayboy!
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06-19-2014, 08:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-19-2014, 08:13 PM by rnsmth.)
(06-19-2014, 08:05 PM)kayboy Wrote: I give up! I've had it! I take some profits and have a little cash sitting around doing nothing, but I don't want to buy at these levels, but I want my money to be working for me. I don't want to start a new position because as sure as I do, the market drops 30% tomorrow. The only answer seems to me, is to take a deep breath, do nothing financial and go cut the yard.
I can watch my net worth grow or sink in the market a penny at a time while I wait for the inevitable. "There's no education in the second kick of a mule".
Cheers,
kayboy!
GE, MCD, XOM, ESV, BAX, O, PG, RCI, CVX, KO and SE are all below fair value, according to Morningstar. There are others on the list.
IMO, the chances of a 30% drop in the market anytime soon are not significantly different than zero - and if it were to with DGI and dividend reinvestment it would be a blessing.
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06-20-2014, 05:46 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-20-2014, 05:50 AM by Vincenzo.)
(06-19-2014, 08:05 PM)kayboy Wrote: I take some profits...
I don't want to buy at these levels...
I don't want to start a new position because as sure as I do, the market drops 30% tomorrow...
I'm a newcomer here and, not counting this post, I've posted to these message boards all of five times. So perhaps my advice won't carry much weight, but here it is anyway.
You're trying to time the market which, in my humble opinion, is a mistake. I attempted to do the same thing - after the "financial crisis", in 2011, when all the pundits on television were pontificating about the huge problems in Greece and how their problems would spill over to Portugal, then to Europe and "THIS COULD BE TROUBLE FOR THE U.S.", blah blah blah. I thought I was being savvy by moving a bunch of money from stock funds to bond funds in my IRA. And there it sat all through 2011, 2012 and 2013 - always waiting for the right moment to get back in. I missed out on a huge run. Big regrets.
My humble opinion is - if your time horizon is > 10 years, put your money in, buy stocks that are at reasonable levels, and don't sell again (unless of course, you find yourself in another Enron-type stock).
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It think it depends on what percentage you have in cash. I'm at less than 2% in both my and my wife's IRA and I'm still looking. I keep going through the yes/no phase on PG, WPC and AVA. It's not a time to go all in but I'm not averse to buying small chunks and start letting the dividends do some of the work.
If you have a lot of cash, the losses you're taking due to inflation, super low interest rates and opportunity cost makes it a bigger burden to overcome when you do buy in.
In the meantime, you can cut my lawn.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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06-20-2014, 08:28 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-20-2014, 08:30 AM by Kerim.)
Hey there kayboy -- I certainly understand the feeling, and you've got to be able to sleep at night. And at the end of the day, you're captain of your own ship and must make the decisions.
But I tend to agree with the other sentiments so far in the thread. Yes, the market might drop soon, but it may not either. The fact that we are at all time highs is not evidence AT ALL that a decline is imminent. Here's the S&P 500 since 1950 or so:
Look at the COUNTLESS number of times that the market made all-time highs. You could have made your exact same post in 1957, or 1964, or 1986, or 1998, or 2011. Every time, the market may have "felt" impossibly high. But every single time, you would have been handsomely rewarded for getting in.
Sure, there may be a pullback in the near future, and if it happens soon enough and you have the wherewithal to actually catch it, you'll do a bit better than if you go all in today. But if the pullback is farther out than you predict, or shallower than you predict, or if you don't catch it right, then you may still come out worse than if you jump in today.
It is certainly harder to make investments now than anytime in the last few years, but focus on individual stocks and not the market as a whole. Don't go all in; buy in as slowly as your comfort level allows. But if your time horizon is more than a few years, I agree with the others here that the sidelines, while it may be more comfortable, could be a costly mistake. Good luck!
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