What I Am Buying Today.

[kblake]

I don't read articles, read books and so on. I do my own research and have beaten the S&P year in a year out. I never listen to the noise or get opinions from Yahoo, boards ect.

With that said, its easy to see the market is over valued and being pumped day in and day out. Fundamentals mean nothing anymore and that's a scary thing. Go look at historic PE levels and you will see most are doubled, or tripled from historic levels. And not to mentions earnings are being revised downward. At the rate new investors are going to get hurt. I can afford to hold because most stocks I have owned for 5+ years and most 10-20+ years, so need to sell. But I am trimming. and paly with the house money and like some others are going toward for safety and guarantee

Funds like QYLD I do own. I don't even care if it trades in a $1 radius. I'm only in for the yield and Monthly income

And I am not good at timing the market, but the market always gives us buying opportunities. And I am more then happy to sit on 33-35% cash and wait for that to happen. Maybe that's 1, 2 or 5 years out. Whatever, how many years that is, I refuse to chase names in this market.

I buy when things are out of favor. Take oil for instance. I bought a ton of names when oil was below 30$ a barrel and still hold most. Just look where those stocks are now. Hitting all time highs.

In recent months I bought XEL, EL, GOOG, ADM, HSY, O, TSCO and TROW,

Don't own but maybe LEG, NKE will be those next good buys.

Lets also not forget names like PYPL high of $308, SQ $276, TDOC $293. These stocks are still way, way off their highs and will never see those levels again. This is why tech scares the crap out of me. Its all momentum and not based on valuation. Sooner or later this sector will crash yet again. This is why I only invest in names like MSFT, META, AVGO, AMZN and GOOG. Even these names have had too big of run.

But remember.....There's always a bull market somewhere, which is why spreading it out and diversifying is always a great idea.

[ken-do-nim]

(03-29-2024, 12:26 PM)Mr1share Wrote: Everyone has there own opinion.

I'm still in the market, I just prefer safety and a guaranteed 5% each month over growth and overvalued investments lol. Give me my 27k a month in dividends and I can live on that.

But at some point all these pumped names will come back to reality, it always happens.  I will stick with names like URI, WSO, and ITW, which will outperform most names.

(Does quick math; 27k / month x 12 months = $324k, which is 5% of $6,480,000.  Congrats on the big pile of cash!)

Yes you can definitely live on that comfortably.  Are you retired?

The pumped names may come back to ordinary P/Es because their earnings have increased.  Nvidia's P/E is 75.80, very high, but their forward P/E is 37.45.  We will find out in May if they achieved that.

[rayray]

(03-29-2024, 01:52 PM)kblake Wrote: I don't read articles, read books and so on. I do my own research and have beaten the S&P year in a year out. I never listen to the noise or get opinions from Yahoo, boards ect.

"I do my own research and have beaten the S&P year in a year out"

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If you mind me asking, 

How many stocks do you own? And what is your top 10 holdings? How many years in the market?

[rayray]

(03-29-2024, 02:33 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(03-29-2024, 12:26 PM)Mr1share Wrote: Everyone has there own opinion.

I'm still in the market, I just prefer safety and a guaranteed 5% each month over growth and overvalued investments lol. Give me my 27k a month in dividends and I can live on that.

But at some point all these pumped names will come back to reality, it always happens.  I will stick with names like URI, WSO, and ITW, which will outperform most names.

(Does quick math; 27k / month x 12 months = $324k, which is 5% of $6,480,000.  Congrats on the big pile of cash!)

Yes you can definitely live on that comfortably.  Are you retired?

The pumped names may come back to ordinary P/Es because their earnings have increased.  Nvidia's P/E is 75.80, very high, but their forward P/E is 37.45.  We will find out in May if they achieved that.

That's one heck of a portfolio! Most people don't ever see those type of numbers!

[crimsonghost747]

Excellent posts.
My personal take is that my long-term portfolio is a pure buy&hold, and then I trade on the side for extra income and, to be honest, for the thrill of it.

For the long-term portfolio, I never ever sell due to market conditions. In the past I have trimmed down my buys, but even that proved to be a bad decision as I did not manage to time it right. I've also experimented with protective puts - again no joy as I didn't get the timing right. In the end it's a tough game to predict the market... really tough.

But I do always have cash on the side, either real cash or margin that I'm willing to use. If we hit a correction, then I'll just buy more... and the deeper we go the more I buy. My "purchase plan" for a given crisis/correction is always based more or less on a end-of-the-world-scenario, because I'm ok with only deploying 30-50% of my cash during the crash, but I am not okay going all in and the markets still declining from there. Again, predicting the market is a tough game, so I do not spend all my ammo early.

I agree that the valuations of many stocks are pretty high right now. But I still keep buying. I don't care. If I pick a good company, these purchases will look like a stroke of genius in 20-30 years... even if we do a -30% somewhere in between.

[ken-do-nim]

(03-29-2024, 01:52 PM)kblake Wrote: Funds like QYLD I do own. I don't even care if it trades in a $1 radius. I'm only in for the yield and Monthly income

-21% performance over the past 5 years; I see the allure of monthly income but eroding principal is a bummer.

I'm not in it right now, but I think the best high yielder is OMF.  It has a 7.96% yield of qualified dividends, not ordinary dividends, and is up 51% over the past 5 years.  Not quite S&P 500 level performance, but the best I've seen for an income stock.  They had been raising the dividend every year, but they just had their 5th quarter of paying $1.00/share.  On the flipside, sometimes they throw out huge bonuses, like in 2021, when the dividend was $.70/share, but they gave out $3.50/share bonuses twice.

[kblake]

(04-01-2024, 09:13 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(03-29-2024, 01:52 PM)kblake Wrote: Funds like QYLD I do own. I don't even care if it trades in a $1 radius. I'm only in for the yield and Monthly income

-21% performance over the past 5 years; I see the allure of monthly income but eroding principal is a bummer.

I'm not in it right now, but I think the best high yielder is OMF.  It has a 7.96% yield of qualified dividends, not ordinary dividends, and is up 51% over the past 5 years.  Not quite S&P 500 level performance, but the best I've seen for an income stock.  They had been raising the dividend every year, but they just had their 5th quarter of paying $1.00/share.  On the flipside, sometimes they throw out huge bonuses, like in 2021, when the dividend was $.70/share, but they gave out $3.50/share bonuses twice.

-21%?? 

I'm up 18% plus dividends. So i have done very well. I bought moat near the bottom and am very happy. Now I just reinvent the dividends

[ken-do-nim]

Sure I see a couple dips in the chart there where you could be up 18% from, but overall I try to stay away from funds that degrade over time.  Best of luck though!

[vbin]

Added unh and bought back some cvs. Sold some oxy

[divmenow]

Damn Hum and UNH getting rocked today. May have more downside to go

TSLA avoid! lol

Gold is leading this market. Who would have thought lol

Congrats to those who went cash. More dip to go.

[stockguru]

(04-02-2024, 09:54 AM)divmenow Wrote: Damn Hum and UNH getting rocked today. May have more downside to go

TSLA avoid! lol

Gold is leading this market. Who would have thought lol

Congrats to those who went cash. More dip to go.

Wow those insurers are having a tough time today. I only own ELV and added. I stay away from HUM and UNH until we see how the White House shakes out. 

TSLA I only own 8 shares for fun. Got in a lot lower, but I agree it’s headed lower. Maybe under $120. I see no catalyst that will take it higher. 

I added HSY, PRU, and CHRD In recent weeks 

I like gold as well. Oil looking good as well

[ken-do-nim]

(04-02-2024, 09:54 AM)divmenow Wrote: Congrats to those who went cash. More dip to go.

I don't give out congrats until they successfully get back in as well.