What I Am Buying Today.

[EricL]

We are entering full-on stagflation.

The Fed can't cut rates and any fiscal stimulus to help the consumer will just escalate inflation problems even more.

I still think energy is the best place to be right now.

[MrFortune]

DKS, DLTR, DG and BBY next ones to get hit. DKS already down $12 today

Cash is king and oil. The rest stay out of it

[kblake]

Added a few HD, TSCO and DG

Yes retail brutal right now but these are the 3 names I own and always add to them on big dips.

No position in TGT. Sold at @262. Looking to re-enter today or tomorrow

[ConnerM]

(05-18-2022, 08:57 AM)kblake Wrote: Added a few HD, TSCO and DG

Yes retail brutal right now but these are the 3 names I own and always add to them on big dips.

No position in TGT. Sold at @262. Looking to re-enter today or tomorrow

Same here. Added a few DG, TSCO, LOW and UL

[EricL]

Target just missed earnings estimates by 30% ($2.19 vs. $3.06) and said they are struggling with rising input and inflation costs.

Do you see either of those situations improving during the next quarter? With gas prices headed to $5 or $6 and Shanghai just coming out of full lock-down that further disrupted supply chains?

Anything consumer-related is going to struggle over the next several quarters. This isn't a one-off event.

[ConnerM]

(05-18-2022, 09:15 AM)EricL Wrote: Target just missed earnings estimates by 30% ($2.19 vs. $3.06) and said they are struggling with rising input and inflation costs.

Do you see either of those situations improving during the next quarter? With gas prices headed to $5 or $6 and Shanghai just coming out of full lock-down that further disrupted supply chains?

Anything consumer-related is going to struggle over the next several quarters. This isn't a one-off event.

 
Yes Eric we get all those numbers, gas prices ect. Blah, Blah Blah 

But all these companies have come down significantly.

DG will do well in a recession as well TSCO and HD and LOW.  People will always put money into their houses and discount retailers do well. 

Oil has had a huge run. At some point it will come crashing down. Happens all the time. No one should be buying at these highs. It's all momentum. Look what buying at the highs did for tech and consumer investors lol 

But you have to take advantages of the good names that have been beaten down.

[EricL]

(05-18-2022, 09:23 AM)ConnerM Wrote:

(05-18-2022, 09:15 AM)EricL Wrote: Target just missed earnings estimates by 30% ($2.19 vs. $3.06) and said they are struggling with rising input and inflation costs.

Do you see either of those situations improving during the next quarter? With gas prices headed to $5 or $6 and Shanghai just coming out of full lock-down that further disrupted supply chains?

Anything consumer-related is going to struggle over the next several quarters. This isn't a one-off event.

 
Yes Eric we get all those numbers, gas prices ect. Blah, Blah Blah 

But all these companies have come down significantly.

DG will do well in a recession as well TSCO and HD and LOW.  People will always put money into their houses and discount retailers do well. 

Oil has had a huge run. At some point it will come crashing down. Happens all the time. No one should be buying at these highs. It's all momentum. Look what buying at the highs did for tech and consumer investors lol 

But you have to take advantages of the good names that have been beaten down.

I'm not saying TGT, HD, LOW, and TSCO aren't good names to own. I still own them all and have zero intentions of selling any of them. I'm just saying the numbers from WMT and TGT should give one pause about the earnings prospects for any of them in the current economy. 

This isn't a one-off bad quarter, there will be more bad ones coming. We are at the beginning of the recession, not the end.

[Kerim]

(05-17-2022, 09:57 AM)ConnerM Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 09:48 AM)EricL Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 08:52 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I was supposed to buy another share of SCHD today, but I started a position in F instead  I get a buck a quarter from them so far!

Brave buying F with rising interest rates and higher oil prices squeezing the consumer.

Auto stocks in recessions are bad news.

Agreed Eric. Stay away from F in times like this. You would have been better off buying 1 share of SCHD

Hard to disagree in principle, but I might take a closer look at F myself. It would never be a big or core position, or even a long-term hold. But is the p/e really under 5 right now? And they are going to sell a TON of the new electric F-150s.

[cemanuel]

Instead of TGT I bought WSM at $110. TGT down 25% on soft earnings sure seems like an overreaction but WSM down 15%?

As usual, my "wait for S&P 3500" went out the window. Either of those look like market gifts to me.

[ken-do-nim]

(05-18-2022, 10:59 AM)Kerim Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 09:57 AM)ConnerM Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 09:48 AM)EricL Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 08:52 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I was supposed to buy another share of SCHD today, but I started a position in F instead  I get a buck a quarter from them so far!

Brave buying F with rising interest rates and higher oil prices squeezing the consumer.

Auto stocks in recessions are bad news.

Agreed Eric. Stay away from F in times like this. You would have been better off buying 1 share of SCHD

Hard to disagree in principle, but I might take a closer look at F myself. It would never be a big or core position, or even a long-term hold. But is the p/e really under 5 right now? And they are going to sell a TON of the new electric F-150s.

I happen to think F is primed to take off.  I see the chip shortage as their biggest issue.  The higher gas prices go, the more people look to electric cars.  But hey, I only have 10 shares so far 

[fenders53]

(05-18-2022, 11:09 AM)cemanuel Wrote: Instead of TGT I bought WSM at $110. TGT down 25% on soft earnings sure seems like an overreaction but WSM down 15%?

As usual, my "wait for S&P 3500" went out the window. Either of those look like market gifts to me.

I have been tracking WSM for awhile now.  I want some shares long-term but I think they are going to get smoked soon to be honest. I have sold some way out of the money puts and almost got sucked in a few times.

[fenders53]

(05-18-2022, 11:28 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(05-18-2022, 10:59 AM)Kerim Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 09:57 AM)ConnerM Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 09:48 AM)EricL Wrote:

(05-17-2022, 08:52 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I was supposed to buy another share of SCHD today, but I started a position in F instead  I get a buck a quarter from them so far!

Brave buying F with rising interest rates and higher oil prices squeezing the consumer.

Auto stocks in recessions are bad news.

Agreed Eric. Stay away from F in times like this. You would have been better off buying 1 share of SCHD

Hard to disagree in principle, but I might take a closer look at F myself. It would never be a big or core position, or even a long-term hold. But is the p/e really under 5 right now? And they are going to sell a TON of the new electric F-150s.

I happen to think F is primed to take off.  I see the chip shortage as their biggest issue.  The higher gas prices go, the more people look to electric cars.  But hey, I only have 10 shares so far 

Least of their worries for the moment. Pressure on consumer's wallets may delay some new car buys.