VBIN's oil stock thread.

[EricL]

(03-08-2022, 11:45 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-08-2022, 09:44 AM)EricL Wrote: The U.S. to announce a ban on Russian energy imports, crude over $125.



New England is going to suffer big-time as they are cut off from the rest of the US due to Jones Act rules on oil shipping and lack of pipeline capacity.

Did not knew about this. Where did you find the his info Eric?

Here are a few articles discussing it.

CNBC
Wall Street Journal

[fenders53]

(03-09-2022, 09:09 AM)stockguru Wrote: I think the run is over. All these oil stocks were way over bought. The time to get in them was weeks or months ago. Buying the past few days was just asking for trouble. Hope Eric took his profits ?

Same with LMT and NOC.  Those ran up way too fast as well and the last few days have made the top shorted list.

No you missed the oil bus.  The time to get in was when we were buying them over a year ago and launched this thread. I have made oil money every month since then, and a lot of it since last fall.

[EricL]

Quote:EIA

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 4, 2022

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending March 4, 2022 which was 21,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.Refineries operated at 89.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,averaging 4.6 million barrels per day. 

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.6 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 10.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 760,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 274,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 411.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are about 1% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels last week and are about 18% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propyleneinventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 21% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.1 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.6 million barrels a day, up by12.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 7.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.4 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 35.4% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Another big counter-seasonal draw, with 8.1 million barrels coming out of storage. This number does not include barrels coming out of the SPR either.

[rnsmth]

The Average Crude Oil Spot Price calculates an equally weighted price of the WTI Crude Oil Price, Brent Crude Oil Price, and Dubai Crude Oil Price. This metric gives a nice overview of the broad crude oil market, rather than looking at one type of crude oil price alone. One of the most notable times for the Average Crude Oil Spot Price was in 2008. Prices for the Average Crude reached as high as $114/barrel because of large cuts in production. However, because of the financial crisis and an abrupt loss of demand for oil globally, the price of Average Crude fell as much at 70% off highs in January of 2009.


Average Crude Oil Spot Price is at a current level of 93.54, up from 83.92 last month and up from 60.46 one year ago. This is a change of 11.47% from last month and 54.71% from one year ago.


https://ycharts.com/indicators/average_c...spot_price

[vbin]

Buffet bought more oxy. He is buying whatever he can get his hands on( he literally said this). I think last time he was buying something this aggressive was apple.

[EricL]

I think the correction following the spike on the Russian invasion is over and we are back to trading on fundamentals.

WTI at $106 in pre-market trading. Crude continues to draw worldwide, and I don't see a supply response coming from the US anytime soon as there simply isn't the labor or materials available to ramp production.

[fenders53]

(03-20-2022, 05:50 PM)vbin Wrote: Buffet bought more oxy. He is buying whatever he can get his hands on( he literally said this). I think last time he was buying something this aggressive was apple.

BRK timing has been mostly horrible for years now.  I am not inspired by his massive purchase after OXY does a 5X.  Will they trim a year after the oil cycle peaks?  Or the bottom like airline stocks?

[fenders53]

(03-20-2022, 09:29 PM)EricL Wrote: I think the correction following the spike on the Russian invasion is over and we are back to trading on fundamentals.

WTI at $106 in pre-market trading. Crude continues to draw worldwide, and I don't see a supply response coming from the US anytime soon as there simply isn't the labor or materials available to ramp production.

Hope you are right.  I sold a lot of new puts in EOG and XLE on the pullback.  I will add more as they expire each week.  Looks like clear sailing through summer before the demand destruction starts.  Oil will correct itself in the end.  I doubt it's different this time.  For better or worse oil will be my hedge against the big tech shares I have added during the correction.

[vbin]

(03-21-2022, 03:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-20-2022, 05:50 PM)vbin Wrote: Buffet bought more oxy. He is buying whatever he can get his hands on( he literally said this). I think last time he was buying something this aggressive was apple.

BRK timing has been mostly horrible for years now.  I am not inspired by his massive purchase after OXY does a 5X.  Will they trim a year after the oil cycle peaks?  Or the bottom like airline stocks?

Last time he bought this heavy was apple. Oxy making 220m more for each $1 in oil. This stock is going above $100 buddy( oil ain’t coming down any time soon)

[fenders53]

(03-21-2022, 09:41 AM)vbin Wrote:

(03-21-2022, 03:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-20-2022, 05:50 PM)vbin Wrote: Buffet bought more oxy. He is buying whatever he can get his hands on( he literally said this). I think last time he was buying something this aggressive was apple.

BRK timing has been mostly horrible for years now.  I am not inspired by his massive purchase after OXY does a 5X.  Will they trim a year after the oil cycle peaks?  Or the bottom like airline stocks?

Last time he bought this heavy was apple. Oxy making 220m more for each $1 in oil. This stock is going above $100 buddy( oil ain’t coming down any time soon)

I own plenty of oil but he is way late buddy.  OXY PURCHASE Isn't impressive AFTER he watched it run 5X. Anybody can chase after it is obvious.  Too bad because he has stupid amounts of cash.  This could have been the year he finally beats the index lately.  Maybe he still will.

Stated another way, VBIN played oil way smarter than BRK so don't get too impressed with idols because they play with bigger numbers. You were trimming with a nice profit before they even showed up. (Other than the loan shark thing)

[rnsmth]

I do not know what oil is going to do, but I do know this. EOG was able to treat shareholders very nicely in 2021 at an average price of $68 a barrel (according to their recent earnings call transcript). We are getting another special this month, and their stated preference is to return money to shareholders via dividends.

I like that.

[fenders53]

I think everyone in this conversation owns EOG. It's been a good one.