What I Am Buying Today.

[fenders53]

No buys today. Sold a bunch of covered calls mid-day while the market was up. Need to change my screen name to Mister Hedge.

[stockguru]

Powell screwed it up, once again

He must be short the market. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit ??

[ken-do-nim]

(01-25-2022, 04:18 PM)MrFortune Wrote: Yup forward guidance was not good. The entire tech will sell off more from these levels

Haha on SOXL. I shouldn't have covered yet. It may head below $25 with the rate tech is going to slide. 

Where's that guy who loves SOXL? He's been really quiet of late calling for $100 on that stock 

I bet SOXS actually may be a good play here. That chip sector was so pumped.

Yeah, needed time off the forum for obvious reasons.  Of course, now is the time to buy the damn thing.  From now onwards whenever my ETFs hit all-time-highs, I will trim and redirect the proceeds to DGI.

Anyway ... I'm coming in under budget this month, which means I don't have to draw out the dividends from the account, so I bought some T at today's discount.

[cemanuel]

(01-26-2022, 03:20 PM)stockguru Wrote: Powell screwed it up, once again

He must be short the market. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit ??

What did he do? I didn't see anything in the quoted comments that should cause any angst. Though I didn't see one of his favorite phrases either - "measured response."

Unless the market thought he downplayed inflation too much.

[rnsmth]

Trimmed VZ back to a full weight position. Used the proceeds to add to STOR at 30.68.

About the same current yield, STOR most recent dividend increase was more than triple VZ's. VZ's dividend safety score is higher (87 v. 70)

I looked at SO, the difference was the ex-div date.

VZ's was Jan. 7, SO's is coming up on Feb 18. STOR's DGR is about twice as fast as SO's

[fenders53]

(01-26-2022, 03:35 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(01-25-2022, 04:18 PM)MrFortune Wrote: Yup forward guidance was not good. The entire tech will sell off more from these levels

Haha on SOXL. I shouldn't have covered yet. It may head below $25 with the rate tech is going to slide. 

Where's that guy who loves SOXL? He's been really quiet of late calling for $100 on that stock 

I bet SOXS actually may be a good play here. That chip sector was so pumped.

Yeah, needed time off the forum for obvious reasons.  Of course, now is the time to buy the damn thing.  From now onwards whenever my ETFs hit all-time-highs, I will trim and redirect the proceeds to DGI.

Anyway ... I'm coming in under budget this month, which means I don't have to draw out the dividends from the account, so I bought some T at today's discount.

Yes, if you want to play with fire you have to trim and add, trim and add.  I even do that with boring stuff like utilities if they run way out of valuation. There are long term DGI holds and there are trading stocks. You gave up a year of crazy good profits in a month. It could take years to get that back.  Have to control the greed. Always.

Just learn and adjust your strategy.

[fenders53]

(01-26-2022, 03:46 PM)cemanuel Wrote:

(01-26-2022, 03:20 PM)stockguru Wrote: Powell screwed it up, once again

He must be short the market. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit ??

What did he do? I didn't see anything in the quoted comments that should cause any angst. Though I didn't see one of his favorite phrases either - "measured response."

Unless the market thought he downplayed inflation too much.

His mistake was ignoring inflation 9 months ago.  He should have made us mad by tightening then.  Investors would have bashed him either way.  Politics are involved.  Slow the economy down and you are hated.  Rates will rise next meeting as expected unless inflation magically goes away.

[kblake]

(01-26-2022, 04:39 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-26-2022, 03:46 PM)cemanuel Wrote:

(01-26-2022, 03:20 PM)stockguru Wrote: Powell screwed it up, once again

He must be short the market. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit ??

What did he do? I didn't see anything in the quoted comments that should cause any angst. Though I didn't see one of his favorite phrases either - "measured response."

Unless the market thought he downplayed inflation too much.

His mistake was ignoring inflation 9 months ago.  He should have made us mad by tightening then.  Investors would have bashed him either way.  Politics are involved.  Slow the economy down and you are hated.  Rates will rise next meeting as expected unless inflation magically goes away.

Here's the problem and I'm all for trimming. But just think how much you will be paying in taxes for all those trades this year. No body ever mentions that 

With those leveraged funds they are so damn volatile. Great when your making money but all that can be gone in a blink of an eye.... You betting on a bull market all the time and that's not a good bet.

You need top adjust 6-9 months in the advance. Now is not the time to hold these kind of funds in an environment that will raise rates. All those chip stocks that kept telling you there was a shortage is no longer the case. The best is behind these names. I dont know how much lower but It's not done going lower. My guess is $25-28

Get in those DGI stocks now. But the ones that stay in a trading range and collect the dividends. Get rid of the stress in holding those high beta etf's and stocks

[fenders53]

He already owns a lot of DGI stocks but valid point on tax status of accounts. That changes the equation.

[crimsonghost747]

(01-26-2022, 05:00 PM)kblake Wrote: All those chip stocks that kept telling you there was a shortage is no longer the case.

The shortage is still very much an issue. ANYTHING in the semi-conductor space that is produced basically gets snagged up. The large majority of the components get snagged up, not when they come out of the production line, but several months and in some cases over a year in advance. In the electronic market the fight for even the tiniest components is still very much the thing. Prices are through the roof and delivery schedules are laughable. 

Basically, anything the semi-conductor industry can produce is going to be sold, immediately, with pretty heavy price increases. The situation has calmed down a bit and will probably calm down a bit further, however I do not think it will be over any time soon.

The issue with semi-conductors was once again valuation. The companies sell 100% of their production immediately. Yet people were valuing them as if they will keep growing revenues +30% every year forever. Surprisingly enough, they can't sell more than they produce and it takes a long time to ramp up production, for those that want to take the risk of ramping up production at the top of the cycle. 

Semi-conductor companies are still in an awesome position. The industry itself is as strong as ever.
People just were paying way too high multiples, and now we are returning to planet earth.

[fenders53]

Some of the semis hit 2024-25 prices. The good ones will recover but a straight line back to ATHs seems unlikely. Or they could relaunch after it's more clear where interest rates land. MSFT balance sheet won't care if rates rise 1% but they'll care if their customers struggle.

There are valuation issues in boring DGI stocks as well. This won't be an easy year to pick entries unless you are truly investing rather than swing trading.

[cemanuel]

His mistake was ignoring inflation 9 months ago.  He should have made us mad by tightening then.

The Fed can't make tightening moves at the same time as Congress is pumping money into the system. Would have been two powerful entities acting completely at odds with each other. The market - or at least institutional investors who make the market - could have reasonably concluded that everyone was crazy.