Vale?

[ken-do-nim]

Vale has a P/E ratio of 3.95 and a yield of 20.79%.  It's like RIO but with almost twice the yield!  It is actually up 47.95% in the past 5 years, so it doesn't seem to be a yield trap. Looks like dividend payments were once or twice a year, but they have 3 payments so far in 2021.  What do you all think?

From yahoo: Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation engaged in metals and mining and one of the largest logistics operators in Brazil. Vale, formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, is the largest producer of iron ore and nickel in the world.

Edit: I can see that the high yield is due to the October payout, which is way higher than anything else they've given out before. I hope someone here took advantage of that.

[fenders53]

Miner during a commodity boom cycle. It looks like they do try to pay a dividend quarterly but nothing like this. Their earnings are like 4X slow years. Similar to RIO but probably less stable. You have to buy them cheap or you can be down for years and it's no fun when they slice the dividend during those times.

A lot of miners pay out Divs like this. Nothing like a DGI schedule.

[ken-do-nim]

I just noticed something else about the recent giant payout.

Declaration date: 9/30/2021
Ex-div date: 9/23/2021

Ex-div was before declaration! So it was like the company went, "Surprise, if you already own us, you're in luck!" I've never seen that done before.

[ken-do-nim]

I don't have very much VALE, but getting a little worried about the December dividend announcement, as it is the 31st and all is quiet.

[fenders53]

(12-31-2021, 10:27 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I don't have very much VALE, but getting a little worried about the December dividend announcement, as it is the 31st and all is quiet.

You only need look in the recent past.  Commodity based dividend that will swing in the wind with spot prices and next quarters profit projection.  A lot of miners are now using this model so they can suspend when needed.  I would expect div to go down for now.  It's been a month since I looked at it but I will check it out.

[Scooterd]

Vale cuts full-year iron ore production view, sets 2022 capex at $5.8B. Vale expects production of 320M-335M mt, which lags the 346M-ton consensus, according to Bloomberg. Iron ore prices recently plunged as China limited steel production. Vale also recently announced that its subsidiary Vale Canada entered into an agreement with Nucor Corporation. They will indirectly sell its 50% ownership interest in California Steel Industries. On completion of the deal, Vale will receive $400 million in cash for the 50% of the enterprise value.

VALE missed Q3 earnings by $0.36. - Deep value Play?

In other news -
The Vale-BHP 50-50 Samarco joint venture latest restructuring offer was rejected by Bondholders. The Vale-BHP venture was granted bankruptcy protection by a Brazilian court earlier this year to avoid early payment to some bondholders.

VALE missed Q3 earnings by $0.36.

- Scoot

[fenders53]

Ken, I've said this until you must be tired of hearing it but you can only hold commodities/ materials stocks long-term if your buy very near the bottom when nobody wants them, and it looks like dividends will be zero and solvency is not assured. I suspect you did a FOMO on the spike when VALE was handing out ridiculous dividends. They do that when they can to reward shareholders (as they should). Informed shareholders know they if they don't trade they will ride it sideways or down for 3-5 year periods. Most bail and it gets very ugly. There is no telling where metals are going this year. Oil looks good for awhile but even there you have to be nimble because the bottom was clearly last year. The oil story could change in a year or less. You always need to look backwards on the charts because the story repeats itself since forever. Give it some time and most commodities will be depressed until the next up cycle which will more than likely be years.

[ken-do-nim]

(12-31-2021, 12:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Ken, I've said this until you must be tired of hearing it but you can only hold commodities/ materials stocks long-term if your buy very near the bottom when nobody wants them, and it looks like dividends will be zero and solvency is not assured.  I suspect you  did a FOMO on the spike when VALE was handing out ridiculous dividends.  They do that when they can to reward shareholders (as they should).  Informed shareholders know they if they don't trade they will ride it sideways or down for 3-5 year periods.  Most bail and it gets very ugly.  There is no telling where metals are going this year.  Oil looks good for awhile but even there you have to be nimble because the bottom was clearly last year.  The oil story could change in a year or less.  You always need to look backwards on the charts because the story repeats itself since forever.  Give it some time and most commodities will be depressed until the next up cycle which will more than likely be years.

It was a cautious FOMO 

25 shares of VALE "watch" position.  Larger position in RIO, though half of what I had at the height.  Hopefully both bought near the bottom but time will tell, agreed.

[fenders53]

(12-31-2021, 12:48 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(12-31-2021, 12:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Ken, I've said this until you must be tired of hearing it but you can only hold commodities/ materials stocks long-term if your buy very near the bottom when nobody wants them, and it looks like dividends will be zero and solvency is not assured.  I suspect you  did a FOMO on the spike when VALE was handing out ridiculous dividends.  They do that when they can to reward shareholders (as they should).  Informed shareholders know they if they don't trade they will ride it sideways or down for 3-5 year periods.  Most bail and it gets very ugly.  There is no telling where metals are going this year.  Oil looks good for awhile but even there you have to be nimble because the bottom was clearly last year.  The oil story could change in a year or less.  You always need to look backwards on the charts because the story repeats itself since forever.  Give it some time and most commodities will be depressed until the next up cycle which will more than likely be years.

It was a cautious FOMO 

25 shares of VALE "watch" position.  Larger position in RIO, though half of what I had at the height.  Hopefully both bought near the bottom but time will tell, agreed.

Don't add right now.  Hold it and learn (if the position is small enough to not really hurt you).  I don't like it, but I can hold them for a modest dividend if it keeps coming.  It's still opportunity cost if you can find a boring stock likely to yield a lame 5% total return.  VALE may very well be OK this year but I wouldn't count on it if the economy slows at all.  RIO looks safer to me though it will still ride the commodity cycle.  If you are going to play commodities stay with the ones that won't be anywhere near BK.  The lessor ones don't even tempt me anymore. The real money was made starting over a year ago.  Smart money left because they know the game.

[ken-do-nim]

(12-31-2021, 01:03 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-31-2021, 12:48 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(12-31-2021, 12:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Ken, I've said this until you must be tired of hearing it but you can only hold commodities/ materials stocks long-term if your buy very near the bottom when nobody wants them, and it looks like dividends will be zero and solvency is not assured.  I suspect you  did a FOMO on the spike when VALE was handing out ridiculous dividends.  They do that when they can to reward shareholders (as they should).  Informed shareholders know they if they don't trade they will ride it sideways or down for 3-5 year periods.  Most bail and it gets very ugly.  There is no telling where metals are going this year.  Oil looks good for awhile but even there you have to be nimble because the bottom was clearly last year.  The oil story could change in a year or less.  You always need to look backwards on the charts because the story repeats itself since forever.  Give it some time and most commodities will be depressed until the next up cycle which will more than likely be years.

It was a cautious FOMO 

25 shares of VALE "watch" position.  Larger position in RIO, though half of what I had at the height.  Hopefully both bought near the bottom but time will tell, agreed.

Don't add right now.  Hold it and learn (if the position is small enough to not really hurt you).  I don't like it, but I can hold them for a modest dividend if it keeps coming.  It's still opportunity cost if you can find a boring stock likely to yield a lame 5% total return.  VALE may very well be OK this year but I wouldn't count on it if the economy slows at all.  RIO looks safer to me though it will still ride the commodity cycle.  If you are going to play commodities stay with the ones that won't be anywhere near BK.  The lessor ones don't even tempt me anymore. The real money was made starting over a year ago.  Smart money left because they know the game.

Sounds like a plan.  There's something to be said for these variable dividend payers regarding the entertainment factor.