First portfolio

[deserttrd4x]

Hello everyone, I would like some input on my first long term portfolio. I am 35 and plan to invest any extra cash I have for the next twenty years to hopefully help fund my retirement. Let me know the stocks you think are good and which ones you think I should sell right away. Thanks for the help. I have had decent luck day trading but I am now looking at long term investing. - Matt

AGNC
HBI
ET
EPD
KO
VALE
T

[fenders53]

(12-21-2021, 12:18 AM)deserttrd4x Wrote: Hello everyone, I would like some input on my first long term portfolio. I am 35 and plan to invest any extra cash I have for the next twenty years to hopefully help fund my retirement. Let me know the stocks you think are good and which ones you think I should sell right away. Thanks for the help. I have had decent luck day trading but I am now looking at long term investing. - Matt

AGNC
HBI
ET
EPD
KO
VALE
T

Welcome to the forum Matt.  I believe a 35 yr old will  be better served by holding a larger allocation of companies that are consistent growing revenues and earnings for the next two decades.

[cemanuel]

Your portfolio needs to fit your goals and objectives as well as your appetite for risk. However with the amount of time you have remaining to you - 20 years - I'd echo that this looks quite conservative. You have time to build the income later - not saying to go away from dividends completely but looking for more growth may be something worth looking at.

I am retiring, well, tomorrow is my last day in the office. However I don't need to touch my IRA for 13 years until RMD time. My taxable account is for retirement dividend income and looks more like what you have offered (though of those I only own T). With 13 years I plan to move much more toward the growth end of things in the IRA though I will still lean toward dividend-payers.

[ken-do-nim]

Congrats cemanuel on completing your career!!!!

[cemanuel]

(12-21-2021, 07:31 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Congrats cemanuel on completing your career!!!!

Thank you. I'm in a strange sort of limbo. This morning I just sent in my final report - ever. This is the last actual work-related duty I have left to me. I now will sit at my desk until 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon with nothing to do but read blogs.

Beats the alternative. The imp in me wants to go to the supply closet and re-organize everything so nobody can find a pencil when they need it. Better to read stuff here.

[fenders53]

(12-21-2021, 09:29 AM)cemanuel Wrote:

(12-21-2021, 07:31 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Congrats cemanuel on completing your career!!!!

Thank you. I'm in a strange sort of limbo. This morning I just sent in my final report - ever. This is the last actual work-related duty I have left to me. I now will sit at my desk until 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon with nothing to do but read blogs.

Beats the alternative. The imp in me wants to go to the supply closet and re-organize everything so nobody can find a pencil when they need it. Better to read stuff here.

LOL, yeah, don't be that guy.  I guess we'll hijack the original poster's thread until he returns.  

Do you have firm plans for retirement activities?  I had a three year stint of full retirement.  I had a lot of plans.  Did many with great vigor.  I also look around the hose and property at some projects I should have taken care of 5 years ago.  I need to be a little more efficient next spring when I re-retire.

[ken-do-nim]

(12-21-2021, 12:18 AM)deserttrd4x Wrote: Hello everyone, I would like some input on my first long term portfolio. I am 35 and plan to invest any extra cash I have for the next twenty years to hopefully help fund my retirement. Let me know the stocks you think are good and which ones you think I should sell right away. Thanks for the help. I have had decent luck day trading but I am now looking at long term investing. - Matt

AGNC
HBI
ET
EPD
KO
VALE
T

I'm going to give you feedback on each pick, but I am not going to be subtle.

AGNC - thumbs down.  There is negative price growth over the last 5 years; this one clocks in at -17.11%, but at least it was marginally stable prior to the March 2020 dip.  It does pay an over 9% dividend, but only some of the high dividend payers are also dividend growers.  AGNC exhibits the opposite trend, in the last 5 years they have dropped the dividend from .20 to .18 to .16. to .12.  If you need supplemental income, I can advise other high dividend payers.

HBI - thumbs down.  5 year price growth of -26.46%, and they haven't raised their dividend since 2016.

ET - thumbs way down.  5 year price growth of -57.48%, and I see the dividend which started in 2018 was already slashed to compensate in November 2020.

EPD - seems okay.  5 year price growth of -21.92%, but prior to the big drop in March 2020 it was stable, and it looks like it has reached stability again.  Div is steadily rising so that's good.

KO - it's steady.  Price does rise over time (up 39% in the past 5 years), and the dividend creeps up, but from .39 to .40 to 41 to .42 in recent years it doesn't keep up with inflation.  I still wouldn't buy it personally.

VALE - thumbs up.  I'm buying this too.

T - It has just started to rebound, but I hate this stock.  Look at the 5 year chart.  Take out the hump prior to the 2020 drop and it is a smooth ride down.  -42% in the past 5 years is all you need to know.

I always tell people to put their money into VOO while they learn about stocks and the market, then slowly trim VOO and move into other things.

[EricL]

deserttrd4x,

Welcome to the forum, good to see another young investor on the board!

I don't have time for a long post right now, but at first glance, it seems you are focusing more on the dividend than the growth.

At 35, you have many years of compounding to go until retirement. Place your focus more on the quality and type of business you are partnering with rather than the yield. Shoot for stocks that are growing at double-digit rates that can continue doing so for years ahead.

Some names of those types:

ABT, ABBV, AMGN, SYK, UNH, ZTS

CMCSA, HD, LOW, NKE, ROST, SBUX, TSCO

COST, DG, CVS, HSY, MKC

AOS, CMI, CSX, HON, LMT, NSC, WSO, UNP

AFL, AMP, BLK, ICE, PRI, TROW

SHW, APD

AMT, DLR, CCI, EXR, O

AAPL, ADP, AVGO, INTC, LRCX, MA, MSFT, NVDA, TXN, V

AEP, AWK, NEE, UGI, WEC, XEL

Good luck!

[fenders53]

(12-21-2021, 12:18 AM)deserttrd4x Wrote: Hello everyone, I would like some input on my first long term portfolio. I am 35 and plan to invest any extra cash I have for the next twenty years to hopefully help fund my retirement. Let me know the stocks you think are good and which ones you think I should sell right away. Thanks for the help. I have had decent luck day trading but I am now looking at long term investing. - Matt

AGNC
HBI
ET
EPD
KO
VALE
T

Research VALE hard before you invest much.  Look back 10 years on consistency of earnings growth and dividends.  There is no consistency.  Ignore the current PE as it is meaningless.  Look at future cash flows.  That will determine how they ride out the next recession.  They seem headed in a better direction but commodities are always a tough long-term hold.

[crimsonghost747]

I think we all agree on the fact that there is too much emphasis purely on the dividend. It is good to have a dividend but it cannot be the full story. I am actually one of those people here who has always had a relatively high yield, but that is simply because it fits my own situation better. Looking back, most of my bad investments have been those high yielders with not much growth, and luckily I have managed to exit most of those positions throughout the years.

I still think that high yielders have their place in a portfolio, but it depends entirely on the individual's situation. For you, seeing as it sounds like you don't plan on touching this money for the next 20 years, I do not think a massive yield is high priority. You can have one or two in there if you feel like it but do not base your whole portfolio on these.

The very first thing I would do in your shoes is to go and find the 5 and 10 year dividend growth rates for all of those companies. If you find that the annual rate, for either period, is less than 5% then I would say it's very safe to just throw that stock into the trash can.

[Scooterd]

(12-21-2021, 09:29 AM)cemanuel Wrote:

(12-21-2021, 07:31 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Congrats cemanuel on completing your career!!!!

The imp in me wants to go to the supply closet and re-organize everything so nobody can find a pencil when they need it. Better to read stuff here.

I think That would be a most excellent Idea, Don't forget to leave a note signed  - The Imp

Tomorrow  -  Just Breathe, decompress.

Next Day - Need to develop a whole new life plan to remain engaged connected and active moving forward.
For me, I'm pretty lucky - Farm maintenance keeps me outdoors and off the couch.
In winter months at least thrice a day 4am - 7am, Noon - 2, and again 4pm - 7pm most days. I step in and work for a local Vet (help run labs, surgeries, administration) when one of her full time staff call out sick or take a vacation. (She taught me a whole new set of skills so late in life, I love it). Don't need the monies so much, but the pocket monies is a nice side bonus) I do it cause I love animals and adult conversation and learning new stuff. I also rent myself out as a handy man for only "elderly folks" in my community. (usually charge "exact cost" of material's and a lunch or dinner).

Hobbies? I have my '46 Mercury Truck, crude carpentry, and metal work (Learning to weld a proper bead!!)

- Scoot

[cemanuel]

(12-21-2021, 09:55 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-21-2021, 09:29 AM)cemanuel Wrote:

(12-21-2021, 07:31 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Congrats cemanuel on completing your career!!!!

Thank you. I'm in a strange sort of limbo. This morning I just sent in my final report - ever. This is the last actual work-related duty I have left to me. I now will sit at my desk until 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon with nothing to do but read blogs.

Beats the alternative. The imp in me wants to go to the supply closet and re-organize everything so nobody can find a pencil when they need it. Better to read stuff here.

LOL, yeah, don't be that guy.  I guess we'll hijack the original poster's thread until he returns.  

Do you have firm plans for retirement activities?  I had a three year stint of full retirement.  I had a lot of plans.  Did many with great vigor.  I also look around the hose and property at some projects I should have taken care of 5 years ago.  I need to be a little more efficient next spring when I re-retire.

I do not. Travel is a given. Beyond that I have this whole mental list I call "Possibilities." I really don't know which ones I'll do or if others will come up. I have told everyone that for the first six months if they call me up and ask me to do something, the answer will be "no." Not if it's just to be a warm body someplace like check in runners for a charitable 5k or something. But anything with actual ongoing responsibilities will be turned down. My job the first six months is to be retired. Then I'll figure out how to fill in around the edges of that. And maybe I'll be doing enough that I don't need to do any filling at all.