What I Am Buying Today.

[fenders53]

(12-15-2021, 03:54 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I had a feeling no matter what the Fed did, once they made a decision the market would shoot up again.

May not go a lot higher but for now the market participants can't find a better game in town.  We are just along for the ride if we mostly hold.  I have stocks running this week that should be in a crash pattern (UTEs among them).  They apparently didn't read the rule book.   

It's fun to watch but trying to make too much sense out of it is futile as it may change in a day or two.  I really try to not stress it or get too happy over what happens any given week.  this is about the 10th time we awaited the big FED decision and they did nothing shocking yet again.  Inflation has to be curbed.  Everybody knows that.

[fenders53]

I sold an XOM put at strike 60. I have room for about another $10K in oil. This seems like easy money in under 6 months but we shall see. I threw down some limit orders and SPWR hit for 100 shares. If no infrastructure bill pass I have little or no upside in solar. It's my SPEC sector.

[stockguru]

(12-15-2021, 04:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I sold an XOM put at strike 60.  I have room for about another $10K in oil.  This seems like easy money in under 6 months but we shall see. I threw down some limit orders and SPWR hit for 100 shares.   If no infrastructure bill pass I have little or no upside in solar. It's my SPEC sector.

Solar stocks may be in for a rude awakening in 2022. 

While California has historically passed friendly solar policies, the latest proposal from the California Public Utilities Commission would be "heavily damaging to near-term rooftop solar growth and margins," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd.

The commission may charge people with rooftop solar panels a monthly grid-connection fee that could come to $40 for an average home and reduce the amount of money that utilities pay solar users for the power they send back to the grid. The rules are not yet final, but they pose a genuine threat to the growth of solar in California, which has more panels than any other state.

[fenders53]

(12-15-2021, 04:51 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(12-15-2021, 04:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I sold an XOM put at strike 60.  I have room for about another $10K in oil.  This seems like easy money in under 6 months but we shall see. I threw down some limit orders and SPWR hit for 100 shares.   If no infrastructure bill pass I have little or no upside in solar. It's my SPEC sector.

Solar stocks may be in for a rude awakening in 2022. 

While California has historically passed friendly solar policies, the latest proposal from the California Public Utilities Commission would be "heavily damaging to near-term rooftop solar growth and margins," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd.

The commission may charge people with rooftop solar panels a monthly grid-connection fee that could come to $40 for an average home and reduce the amount of money that utilities pay solar users for the power they send back to the grid. The rules are not yet final, but they pose a genuine threat to the growth of solar in California, which has more panels than any other state.

I saw that yesterday.  It's counter to their solar push if they actually do it.  I would give back most of my 2020-21 profits if they pass that.

[divmenow]

Bought NUE - $23/yr in earnings next year. That puts the stock at $225-230. One day the market will wake up and reward this company lol

Added BX, TROW, AVGO, and CARR

By the way how about ABBV. Those 3000 shares at $106 are really paying off and saving me right now lol

[ken-do-nim]

ABBV is amazing!!!

The big question is still how it fares in 2023.

[cemanuel]

(12-15-2021, 06:17 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: ABBV is amazing!!!

The big question is still how it fares in 2023.

IMO for the most part this has been answered. Back in 2018/19 when I was buying, my thesis was that if the Humira patent slope (cliff is as wrong for it as any other drug) could be at least 75% replaced by the pipeline the company would do fine and I was getting a good deal. Now part of this is due to AGN but the question has been answered in the affirmative, at least for me.

Maybe confirmation bias - or transference - but I suspect the reason valuation multiples are slowly rising is that the impending doom that folks were predicting a few years ago just won't happen. You don't "just replace" the world's best-selling drug. But ABBV has taken several through the approval process that would be considered blockbusters unless you compare the sales with Humira.

It's nice when a company demonstrates quality of management and also their R&D - and in this case M&A as well. That was my investment thesis back then. If they had failed I think we'd be looking at another GILD - a company I also had a lot of (not as much as of ABBV) until a few months ago.

[fenders53]

The research I have seen projects a year or so of zero growth. Hardly devastating to a longterm holder if you pay a fair price. If it happens to run up 30% the year before, well then it might not be a great idea to be accumulating. It looks reasonable at current prices.

[rnsmth]

EOG

Bought a little more EOG with received dividends. It is now a 3/4 weight position.

3.47% current yield, 5 year DGR is 17%. SSD dividend safety score in the Very Safe range

Plan to keep building it, next stop when it hits full weight.

[divmenow]

ADBE should give you a clear clarification just how over valued tech still is and just how much they were pumped up. I think I will stay in the high dividend payers and not even look at tech for another 3-6 months

BTW anyone follow IEP, TFSL, CWEN, or EPD?

I just bought some CWEN and may buy the others today.

IEP - We all know Carl Icahn. This stock pays a nice $2 dividend and is at the bottom of it's trading range.

[MrFortune]

(12-16-2021, 10:12 AM)divmenow Wrote: ADBE should give you a clear clarification just how over valued tech still is and just how much they were pumped up. I think I will stay in the high dividend payers and not even look at tech for another 3-6 months

BTW anyone follow IEP, TFSL, CWEN, or EPD?

I just bought some CWEN and may buy the others today.

IEP - We all know Carl Icahn. This stock pays a nice $2 dividend and is at the bottom of it's trading range.

Those are interesting names and I like that list. Great thing about owning IEP here is, it's a good hedge to inflation. Carl owns a lot of oil names.  I will go in for 25 shares for now.

Those other names you mention are also near the lows with the exception of CWEN. I don't know that one but looks interesting. I will check it out. 

Thanks for the names 

[fenders53]

(12-16-2021, 10:12 AM)divmenow Wrote: ADBE should give you a clear clarification just how over valued tech still is and just how much they were pumped up. I think I will stay in the high dividend payers and not even look at tech for another 3-6 months

BTW anyone follow IEP, TFSL, CWEN, or EPD?

I just bought some CWEN and may buy the others today.

IEP - We all know Carl Icahn. This stock pays a nice $2 dividend and is at the bottom of it's trading range.

We agree for sure.

It's my opinion that short of a miracle market, one by one overvalued stocks are going to get a haircut over the next 3-6 months.  Tech especially, but even some of our Div favorites.  I've been crying HD and retail is getting out of hand.  Is HD it going to drop like PayPal or Adobe?  Well no, but its delusional to think it can't drop $60 in a month if they drop even a hint that a quarter is going to be flat.  You don't have to run out and sell it but stop adding on a three buck dip.  There are decent deals out there finally and more are probably coming.

I feel sorry for silly kids that think they are getting a deal on a SPAC that is half off, when the thing was 5X overvalued before the dip.