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12-15-2021, 10:27 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2021, 10:28 AM by fenders53.)
I thought this might be fun in a sick sort of way. 
I don't actually own many currently as I am very conservative, but I do own a few. More specifically I have sold puts that are WAY in the money and will not be able to avoid owning them much longer.
RUN- Sunrun is a profitable solar installer. I have no idea why they are dropping this hard and fast.
SPWR- Similar story as RUN. The sector is getting destroyed but I am bullish for 2022..
SOFI- My only SPAC. I better start liking it because I will own a few hundred shares soon and maybe more later.I did wait for most of the beating to occur before entering. I didn't FOMO but it is still getting ugly.
IWM- The Russell 2000 so not a stock. I wanted to own about 300 shares of this ETF entering retirement. That's good because it is about to happen and I will be down well over 10% on entry.
My port is only down about 2% off ATH so this is just whining. I'll buy a few more speculative stocks but not much more.
Anyone else have a few stocks that are bleeding out but you know you should keep them?
For dividend-payers BBY and WSM have been dropping lately. I'm a double on both - actually a triple in WSM - so this makes it easier to take. I'm hoping prices stay right where they are (or lower) with those two until after February 19.
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(12-15-2021, 12:30 PM)cemanuel Wrote: For dividend-payers BBY and WSM have been dropping lately. I'm a double on both - actually a triple in WSM - so this makes it easier to take. I'm hoping prices stay right where they are (or lower) with those two until after February 19.
IMO both of those will do well enough as long as the market doesn't crash for real. Who knows what they do in the next 30 days? We don't have to know that and we never will. If the wider market is struggling (which it is right now) and you have nothing getting beaten up, you may not be diversified enough. This is just part of the game and why I try not to own large positions in anything I don't truly believe will be fine long-term.
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It's a long list. Lets see BABA, PYPL, SQ, RUKU, MTCH, BEP, COUP, MDT, PAAS, PINS, VIAC, RUN and others.
I don't own them all but also the options which are killing me lol
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BABA definitely deserves a mention.
LMT has gotten butchered for months now. The last earnings were bad... but I still think it's a great long-term hold.
CELH is still super expensive but down to levels where I think it's worth a look. This is a pure growth play, and they certainly have growth.
U is starting to flirt with buy territory here... I'd rather get it sub $120 but I'm ok with it here too.
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(12-15-2021, 02:29 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: BABA definitely deserves a mention.
LMT has gotten butchered for months now. The last earnings were bad... but I still think it's a great long-term hold.
CELH is still super expensive but down to levels where I think it's worth a look. This is a pure growth play, and they certainly have growth.
U is starting to flirt with buy territory here... I'd rather get it sub $120 but I'm ok with it here too.
U is way too volatile. No patience to look at that one daily  (mine as well just buy the ETF ) Safer play right now
BABA I will never buy again. Fooled me once, fooled me twice lol
LMT I agree. But it will take time to gain investors back. CEO has to go.
CELH - Way too much competition. I'm not touching that one with a 600 PE
Only 1 dividend payer here. What else you got Crimson haha
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12-15-2021, 04:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2021, 04:21 PM by fenders53.)
I doubt I will EVER stop bragging I held BABA for about 8 months THIS YEAR, and didn't lose money. We did warn the victims. Don't fight the tape. Dump it and average back in if you must. Yes my vision of the past is outstanding.
LMT-yes that will work out eventually. They will pay the dividend while you ride it out.
CELH- I have links to some British guys that pump it daily. Let me know. And WTH is wrong with you Crimson? I do expect you to get me back for that comment.
U- I like it but I sat on my hands and missed the bus. I'll wait and maybe never get a chance to own it. Better than getting my face torn off.
(12-15-2021, 12:39 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (12-15-2021, 12:30 PM)cemanuel Wrote: For dividend-payers BBY and WSM have been dropping lately. I'm a double on both - actually a triple in WSM - so this makes it easier to take. I'm hoping prices stay right where they are (or lower) with those two until after February 19.
IMO both of those will do well enough as long as the market doesn't crash for real. Who knows what they do in the next 30 days? We don't have to know that and we never will. If the wider market is struggling (which it is right now) and you have nothing getting beaten up, you may not be diversified enough. This is just part of the game and why I try not to own large positions in anything I don't truly believe will be fine long-term.
As long as they keep paying a dividend and growing it by double-digits each year they're doing well for me in my taxable account.
IRA will be TR so looking for a bit different performance. WSM has also been a great trading stock the last year or so. It sets up in very nice channels. I only do this with a company I like but I could trade around a long position with it. Even though it went higher for a bit, the $170/190 trade has been working.
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I trade some around core positions. Mostly when options force me in or out of some of the position. It's actually where most of my ports income has come from for years now. I sell a LOT of puts and that works extremely well in a sideways or up market. A few here trade more regularly, but it's a side game for me. The solar stocks I mentioned are a side game but it's real money to me. Several sectors I like have went nowhere this year but adding and trimming the volatility has worked. I am way up on utilities this year. They've went nowhere and I try to nab most of the dividends. I have at least a half dozen stocks that feed me monthly income and are stuck in a range. I do hate being stuck with a stock in a range that pays no dividend. I option my way out of them when I can.
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(12-15-2021, 04:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I doubt I will EVER stop bragging I held BABA for about 8 months THIS YEAR, and didn't lose money. We did warn the victims. Don't fight the tape. Dump it and average back in if you must. Yes my vision of the past is outstanding.
LMT-yes that will work out eventually. They will pay the dividend while you ride it out.
CELH- I have links to some British guys that pump it daily. Let me know. And WTH is wrong with you Crimson? I do expect you to get me back for that comment.
U- I like it but I sat on my hands and missed the bus. I'll wait and maybe never get a chance to own it. Better than getting my face torn off.
I think I held BABA for about 2 weeks this year. But the growth metrics cannot be ignored, and while the Chinese government will be sure to make things go the way they want, they will not kill all of their money makers. I will not buy BABA yet, but I do think I will buy it at some point if the market keeps hammering it down.
As for CELH, there are many things wrong with me but the large majority of those issues have nothing to do with my stock picking skills!  I've traded it here in the $60 range a couple of times now, it has worked out well. The chart is that of a super hyped tech growth company with majestic promises of the future, the daily moves are at least as crazy as those tech companies. The thing is that CELH probably beats the majority of those tech companies in revenue growth, not to mention actually being profitable. Not that it matters at these valuations. Long story short: it's a good company with massive growth potential. The valuation is still crazy , no doubt about that, but at least it's $40 less crazy than a few weeks ago. I am not convinced that the market is done with paying ridiculous amounts for growth. You know I will never invest large amounts of money in a company like this, but it wouldn't be the first time CELH has used $60 as a springboard on it's way higher.
As for U, well why do you keep sitting on your hands when I give you great stock picks??
Maybe take a look at the option chain? The premiums are pretty decent even for strikes far OTM. Maybe you will find something you like there.
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12-16-2021, 05:26 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-16-2021, 05:28 AM by fenders53.)
I am still watching U. The market is so punitive right now and the indexes haven't even fallen. After we get an actual rate hike, maybe we know where the bottom is for the small caps or high valuation companies? Astronomical P/S is always risky. It's clear the market still wants to run for awhile but I think the easy money times might be over soon. Companies will have to make a profit in the foreseeable future or they may just stay down?
SPEC stocks wiped out a lot of new investors and that is unfortunate. Real investing was too boring I guess but in many cases it was free money so it was just an online casino and never about investing.
(12-15-2021, 08:25 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I trade some around core positions. Mostly when options force me in or out of some of the position. It's actually where most of my ports income has come from for years now. I sell a LOT of puts and that works extremely well in a sideways or up market. A few here trade more regularly, but it's a side game for me. The solar stocks I mentioned are a side game but it's real money to me. Several sectors I like have went nowhere this year but adding and trimming the volatility has worked. I am way up on utilities this year. They've went nowhere and I try to nab most of the dividends. I have at least a half dozen stocks that feed me monthly income and are stuck in a range. I do hate being stuck with a stock in a range that pays no dividend. I option my way out of them when I can.
I did quite a bit of trading when I first got into stocks, prior to settling on DGI which is much more buy-and-hold for me. One I remember being particularly dependable was MU based on RSI. Below 40, buy. Above 65, sell. Rinse, wash, repeat. There were others.
TWLO taught me to trade around a long position rather than completely in and out - if I like the company. In 2017 I made several successful (I thought) trades between the low 20's and low 30's. Uh, guess where it is now? If I don't like the company I now will never own it in the first place. Back then I just looked for good trade stocks. Another I made money on was GPRO but today I wouldn't buy it, or the 2017 version of it.
I'll do some of this in the IRA if I have time. May not either. I won't know what retirement looks like until I'm in it for a bit.
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