VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

Well the little dip came and lasted under a week. Allowed to to get back in just a little. The OPE+ vs Biden commentary is humorous. Trying to shame them into more supply while he tries to wreck the industry at the same time. Their monthly increase plan seems to be keeping things stable enough. I suspect there will be more US drilling by spring but we shall see. It would seem crazy to not bring a little more product to market if prices are headed where we think they are. Demand is almost surely going to rise by then and you are going to cede it to OPEC and others if you don't.

[vbin]

Oil taking a beating, thinking to sell some xle puts.

[vbin]

Sold xle puts strike $52

[fenders53]

I got one thing right. Oil isn't blasting through $100 by the end of the year. I'm not so sure that would be a good thing anyway. Economy doesn't need the scare. Oil will be more than fine by next summer. I've started nibbling again. I'll add a bit more as long as it's falling.

[EricL]

Another good post from the Energy Investing board that mirrors my thoughts on OPEC production.

Quote:OPEC has been missing their output targets for the last six months with a present deficit of about 700K which is probably at least a 30 day old number.  This is the primary reason I want to stay long the energy market at this time. That situation is a major tell into an area of information that has always been hidden from the public for many years. Would you really bet on OPEC coming up with another 2.5mm bbls over the next 6 months + that missing 700K? I think it's unlikely. That combined with increasing demand and little or no CAPEX is why the admin is panicking. They know that it will get worse going into the mid terms and there is little they can do to change it, even if they actually wanted to.
 
Real information is at a premium these days and the best indicators we have today are the divergence of energy equities from WTI over the past month or so along with extreme backwardization in the futures.I remember the same WTI/equities divergence happening back in 2003/4 and it was the leading confirmation of that energy bull.
 
Oil prices are now high enough to make E&Ps very profitable but not yet high enough to create a market that will put CAPEX into new production that is sorely needed. I can't imagine a more bullish circumstance for energy investment.

[fenders53]

IMO OPEC could increase output some with little effort, just like US producers. Whether they want to drop real CAPEX that might wreck the party in a year is another question. They are acting like US majors for now.

[vbin]

Sold out the oxy I bought couple days back. Intention was to trade on it. Still have the xle, oxy, Wes in long account.

Loaded on ET on the pullback.

[fenders53]

I think my day will end with the CVX and EOG put sell. I have a few more open threatening to be exercised if oil doesn't bounce soon. I feel like I timed it better this time because I was expecting oil to cool off into winter. I'm good with adding at least one more time and comfortable holding what I have until next summer.

[MrFortune]

(11-22-2021, 03:25 PM)vbin Wrote: Sold out the oxy I bought couple days back. Intention was to trade on it. Still have the xle, oxy, Wes in long account.

Loaded on ET on the pullback.

ET is interesting here.  Buy 5,000 shares and collect the dividends while you wait for $11 to get out. Rinse and repeat

[vbin]

(11-22-2021, 03:48 PM)MrFortune Wrote:

(11-22-2021, 03:25 PM)vbin Wrote: Sold out the oxy I bought couple days back. Intention was to trade on it. Still have the xle, oxy, Wes in long account.

Loaded on ET on the pullback.

ET is interesting here.  Buy 5,000 shares and collect the dividends while you wait for $11 to get out. Rinse and repeat

Yeah not a bad idea. Not sure about rinse repeat though.

[fenders53]

Is there a reason why ET is a better investment than other pipelines like ENB? ET chart is scary.

[vbin]

(11-22-2021, 11:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Is there a reason why ET is a better investment than other pipelines like ENB? ET chart is scary.

enb is less risky and better mostly in all aspects. Risk to reward is greater in ET.