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The triples are not meant to be held for years. I know you entered at the perfect time. 2020 made this look too easy. I'm sure your returns are better than mine. I'd like to see you keep the profits. You are being warned by us for a reason. Most of us have a few speculative plays. A pro hedge fund trader would have a hard time managing your port. 
You can keep wishing for APR-DEC 20 to repeat but a market half that good is fairly rare. Stay leveraged up and you will give it back. You said you dread a 10% down market year. I expect you will endure a few of those.
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UPRO held from 2010-2021 10K= 339K with a 60% Drawdown
SPY 10K= 51K with a 19% Drawdown
So, one could say 3X risk with 6X superior upside.
Actually a pretty good deal, IMO. 2K into UPRO beats 10K in SPY
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(10-30-2021, 07:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote: The triples are not meant to be held for years. I know you entered at the perfect time. 2020 made this look too easy. I'm sure your returns are better than mine. I'd like to see you keep the profits. You are being warned by us for a reason. Most of us have a few speculative plays. A pro hedge fund trader would have a hard time managing your port.
You can keep wishing for APR-DEC 20 to repeat but a market half that good is fairly rare. Stay leveraged up and you will give it back. You said you dread a 10% down market year. I expect you will endure a few of those.
> You can keep wishing for APR-DEC 20 to repeat
Actually, this October rocked. My taxable account went up 15% this month.
But yeah, my thought process thus far has been to rise up all the blue chips (Microsoft, Apple, Oracle, Target, etc.) up to the level of the triples, so that they aren't as big a percentage of my port. I'm not ready to exit them, but I hope I see the signs early when I need to. I don't think rising inflation is that trigger, but it does behoove me to read more financial news.
By the way, I've been having an absolute blast this past two years. Investing is super fun, even with the mistakes.
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(10-30-2021, 08:09 AM)NilesMike Wrote: UPRO held from 2010-2021 10K= 339K with a 60% Drawdown
SPY 10K= 51K with a 19% Drawdown
So, one could say 3X risk with 6X superior upside.
Actually a pretty good deal, IMO. 2K into UPRO beats 10K in SPY
And the back test period skips the two worst extended drawdowns in my entire investing career. It does cover the best bull market ever. But you knew that.
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(10-30-2021, 08:20 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (10-30-2021, 08:09 AM)NilesMike Wrote: UPRO held from 2010-2021 10K= 339K with a 60% Drawdown
SPY 10K= 51K with a 19% Drawdown
So, one could say 3X risk with 6X superior upside.
Actually a pretty good deal, IMO. 2K into UPRO beats 10K in SPY
And the back test period skips the two worst extended drawdowns in my entire investing career. It does cover the best bull market ever. But you knew that.
It's as far back as UPRO goes unfortunately.
Maybe we can extrapolate that back, but I'm off to buy a new toy car. Show pics if I get it!
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(10-30-2021, 06:27 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged. If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago. 
I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in. Tech for example. You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason. I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense. I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector. Real estate is bubbly now. You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?
One additional comment - my original DFEN purchase was back in 2020 when the stock price was ridiculously low and I knew it (as were most of my leveraged buys), and I've doubled that money. So I don't think the problem is the purchase, I think the problem is knowing when to exit.
We never know where the top is, but we do know when we just enjoyed dream returns. You can always stay in the sector and return to 1X. Or you can take your money off the table and leave the house money. Maybe sprinkle the money to boring stuff like JNJ or a nice soap and deodorant company lol. Sure, you'll make less money than leverage if the sector runs awhile longer. That is the greed talking. When I get a surprisingly high return I often do what I described. Buy a few shares of my favorite UTE or whatever. Collect 80 dividend payments if I live long enough.
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(10-30-2021, 08:24 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (10-30-2021, 08:20 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (10-30-2021, 08:09 AM)NilesMike Wrote: UPRO held from 2010-2021 10K= 339K with a 60% Drawdown
SPY 10K= 51K with a 19% Drawdown
So, one could say 3X risk with 6X superior upside.
Actually a pretty good deal, IMO. 2K into UPRO beats 10K in SPY
And the back test period skips the two worst extended drawdowns in my entire investing career. It does cover the best bull market ever. But you knew that.
It's as far back as UPRO goes unfortunately.
Maybe we can extrapolate that back, but I'm off to buy a new toy car. Show pics if I get it!
It could be pencil whipped close enough. You'll never get it perfect because 2000-2002 was bad enough to cause a 3X tech fund to be liquidated. A lot of the Aristocrats dipped 50%+ during the GFC. That too could make an ETF go away forever with leverage. This is why I get riled up when folks post fantasyland ETF stats and back it up with a once in a lifetime bull run back test period.
Good luck with the toy car.
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10-30-2021, 09:15 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2021, 09:16 AM by ken-do-nim.)
(10-30-2021, 08:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (10-30-2021, 06:27 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged. If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.
I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in. Tech for example. You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason. I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense. I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector. Real estate is bubbly now. You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?
One additional comment - my original DFEN purchase was back in 2020 when the stock price was ridiculously low and I knew it (as were most of my leveraged buys), and I've doubled that money. So I don't think the problem is the purchase, I think the problem is knowing when to exit.
We never know where the top is, but we do know when we just enjoyed dream returns. You can always stay in the sector and return to 1X. Or you can take your money off the table and leave the house money. Maybe sprinkle the money to boring stuff like JNJ or a nice soap and deodorant company lol. Sure, you'll make less money than leverage if the sector runs awhile longer. That is the greed talking. When I get a surprisingly high return I often do what I described. Buy a few shares of my favorite UTE or whatever. Collect 80 dividend payments if I live long enough.
I'm out of Defense sooner or later. I don't feel the need to be in every sector. DFEN I will liquidate for sure; LHX is a probable but not definite. I'm still up pretty well on it, but those ORCL shares aren't going to buy themselves I will just wait for a new tax year & long term capital gains for these first.
Speaking of boring, yeah what happened to JNJ? I was having second thoughts about having sold it early when it ran up to 179, but now it's right back down in the low 160s. And they just demonstrated that the second booster shot puts covid resistance up over 90%. P/E is 24 so not overpriced, but still.
I hope everyone has a happy Halloween!
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More talc litigation drama for JNJ but still one of only two perfect AAA credit ratings. We'll see if they get by with their spinoff a new company and BK it trick. Congress won't be silent about that. I like pharma for 2022/23. It's been down too long. IMO infrastructure is the last big accomplishment until midterms. Progressives are screaming and it may be next year for infrastructure. Both moderates and progressives will take a stand to be re-elected in their district. They are miles apart right now.
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10-30-2021, 12:43 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2021, 12:47 PM by rayray.)
(10-30-2021, 08:20 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (10-30-2021, 08:09 AM)NilesMike Wrote: UPRO held from 2010-2021 10K= 339K with a 60% Drawdown
SPY 10K= 51K with a 19% Drawdown
So, one could say 3X risk with 6X superior upside.
Actually a pretty good deal, IMO. 2K into UPRO beats 10K in SPY
And the back test period skips the two worst extended drawdowns in my entire investing career. It does cover the best bull market ever. But you knew that.
i don't post as much as i'd like to, but try to read as much as i can cause i really like this site and all you guys/gals (gal?), it's a little like my faceless fb if that makes sense?
but sometimes youse make my head hurt LOL
like a while back when a bunch here were bailing on the market and now you're all i believe back in
train that caste iron stomach for the rough times in the market, buy quality and don't bail, accumulate in the bad times
just remember, when the market dumps that's when we make the real money
this pandemic infused market has enabled me to grow my portfolio in 18 months by as much in what it took me 20 plus years to save--and i didn't buy anything crazy, i didn't sell either--but what i did do was fine tune some things out and buy better quality after the main carnage was over
after the chaos, the great recession was really good to me
after the chaos, the pandemic infused market was really good to me
the why's change, the outcomes are the same if you have that caste iron stomach--that's what 25 years in the market has taught me
(edit: this is not directed towards you guys, fenders and nilesmike--two of the more much more experienced investors imho)
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(10-30-2021, 12:43 PM)rayray Wrote: train that caste iron stomach for the rough times in the market, buy quality and don't bail, accumulate in the bad times
just remember, when the market dumps that's when we make the real money
Wisdom.
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As long as you have the ability to buy it's when the best purchases are made. No longer making good wages so it's a cash position or bonds when that made sense. Always had a little cash after tech bubble popped. As it turned out I had time then but that sure wasn't the case last year. You had 30 days.
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