What I Am Buying Today.

[fenders53]

On a side note, you watch China for clues on commodities.  They are the #1 consumer.  They will swing prices in the short term.  The world economy gets a vote but China can crash about anything for a quarter.

[fenders53]

I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

[ken-do-nim]

(10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

Actually my plan is to eliminate my DFEN position completely next year, once all the above-water purchases are a year old.

> You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

Okay, maybe I don't : So you are saying if/when mortgage rates rise, the REITs will all go down in value?

[fenders53]

(10-29-2021, 01:50 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

Actually my plan is to eliminate my DFEN position completely next year, once all the above-water purchases are a year old.

> You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

Okay, maybe I don't : So you are saying if/when mortgage rates rise, the REITs will all go down in value?

I guess I am saying a few things.  

You should not have had to ask that question AFTER you are leveraged up.  Of course bubbly real estate is at risk from a even a small rise in interest rates.  FED is going to have to tighten things up some soon to control inflation. You know they are buying mortgage backed securities now right.  That would be part of quantitative easing taper.

I think you should invest in anything you want to, and put in the work to understand it.  You are leveraging everything because you are being greedy.  It worked last year right?  

I don't think you will believe until the market has a -10% year and you are down well over double that with leverage and Momo stocks.  Have you ever sold a leveraged ETF when it was up? Or only bailed when it was losing?  The prospectus for all those funds state they are not for long structured for longterm holding.

If you wish start a thread titled Risk Management. I think most have given up but we could probably get them to participate. Sound risk taking and understanding our personal greed and far traits is a extremely important. Better to understand before you lose $200K.

[ken-do-nim]

Admittedly I do dread a -10% year. The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years. 2000-2002 is really the biggie. When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out. There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

[fenders53]

(10-29-2021, 02:32 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Admittedly I do dread a -10% year.  The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years.  2000-2002 is really the biggie.  When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out.  There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

You are looking through rose colored glasses, acting like the GFC was no big deal.  It was a retirement date killer even without leverage.

If I were in charge of your money I would still let you have fun lol, but this is what I would make you do.....

3X QQQ and the SOXX.  Some non leveraged of the same you could just hold if it gets crazy.  You can overweight your favorite sector without losing your mind with greed.  You don't seem to scare out of this sector.  

The rest would not be leveraged because you are flying blind leveraging biotech, real estate, commodities etc.  Those are just gambling with your knowledge base.  (or mine).  It makes absolutely no sense because you get scared and run when they dip.  I'd suggest it's because you don't understand the sector well enough to discern noise from long term real problems.  If one can be brave and scared in the same week that would be you lol.  The reality is it's easy to see your trust factor is BS.  You only "trust" things that haven't dipped for a few months.  

More attention to valuation on the individual stocks.  You are constantly selling a loser and buying FOMO.  It works until it doesn't.  You were waaay late to MRNA but I suppose it was still OK to buy a few shares.  We never know.  Then the FOMO got you and you bought more shares that may be underwater forever.  I buy anything I want, but the size is scaled to the risk.      

I expect you will run scared when a 10% down year happens and lose a lot of money flipping leverage to other leveraged securities that haven't dipped yet.  We'll just have to see how fast you can learn.  You aren't 25yrs old so it's not OK to get destroyed in a modest down market year.

[fenders53]

I sold a lot of FB-HAS and ENPH puts last week so I had to get some cash deployed as they all expired worthless today.

Trying to make sure I am diversified if I get stuck with shares. Today I sold puts in XLE-CVX-XOM-FB-AAPL-SPWR-RUN-VICI.

Sold a covered call in MO as I want my last 100 shares to go away. So glad I dumped most of them weeks ago.

[ken-do-nim]

(10-29-2021, 03:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 02:32 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Admittedly I do dread a -10% year.  The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years.  2000-2002 is really the biggie.  When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out.  There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

You are looking through rose colored glasses, acting like the GFC was no big deal.  It was a retirement date killer even without leverage.

If I were in charge of your money I would still let you have fun lol, but this is what I would make you do.....

3X QQQ and the SOXX.  Some non leveraged of the same you could just hold if it gets crazy.  You can overweight your favorite sector without losing your mind with greed.  You don't seem to scare out of this sector.  

The rest would not be leveraged because you are flying blind leveraging biotech, real estate, commodities etc.  Those are just gambling with your knowledge base.  (or mine).  It makes absolutely no sense because you get scared and run when they dip.  I'd suggest it's because you don't understand the sector well enough to discern noise from long term real problems.  If one can be brave and scared in the same week that would be you lol.  The reality is it's easy to see your trust factor is BS.  You only "trust" things that haven't dipped for a few months.  

More attention to valuation on the individual stocks.  You are constantly selling a loser and buying FOMO.  It works until it doesn't.  You were waaay late to MRNA but I suppose it was still OK to buy a few shares.  We never know.  Then the FOMO got you and you bought more shares that may be underwater forever.  I buy anything I want, but the size is scaled to the risk.      

I expect you will run scared when a 10% down year happens and lose a lot of money flipping leverage to other leveraged securities that haven't dipped yet.  We'll just have to see how fast you can learn.  You aren't 25yrs old so it's not OK to get destroyed in a modest down market year.

> The rest would not be leveraged because you are flying blind leveraging biotech, real estate, commodities etc.

I don't leverage biotech or commodities anymore.  I am leveraging real estate because I see house prices continue to climb.

> More attention to valuation on the individual stocks.  You are constantly selling a loser and buying FOMO.

This is true and that's why I'm not selling COF and DFS because they have great fundamentals, despite the drop.

> You were waaay late to MRNA but I suppose it was still OK to buy a few shares.  We never know.  Then the FOMO got you and you bought more shares that may be underwater forever.

Huge mistake, agreed.  They even briefly rose back above water but I held.

> I expect you will run scared when a 10% down year happens 

Most of my new money has not been going into leveraged funds for this very reason.  Aside from taking TQQQ from 75 to 100 shares, none of next year's money is going into leveraged funds.

[stockguru]

(10-29-2021, 03:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 02:32 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Admittedly I do dread a -10% year.  The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years.  2000-2002 is really the biggie.  When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out.  There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

You are looking through rose colored glasses, acting like the GFC was no big deal.  It was a retirement date killer even without leverage.

If I were in charge of your money I would still let you have fun lol, but this is what I would make you do.....

3X QQQ and the SOXX.  Some non leveraged of the same you could just hold if it gets crazy.  You can overweight your favorite sector without losing your mind with greed.  You don't seem to scare out of this sector.  

The rest would not be leveraged because you are flying blind leveraging biotech, real estate, commodities etc.  Those are just gambling with your knowledge base.  (or mine).  It makes absolutely no sense because you get scared and run when they dip.  I'd suggest it's because you don't understand the sector well enough to discern noise from long term real problems.  If one can be brave and scared in the same week that would be you lol.  The reality is it's easy to see your trust factor is BS.  You only "trust" things that haven't dipped for a few months.  

More attention to valuation on the individual stocks.  You are constantly selling a loser and buying FOMO.  It works until it doesn't.  You were waaay late to MRNA but I suppose it was still OK to buy a few shares.  We never know.  Then the FOMO got you and you bought more shares that may be underwater forever.  I buy anything I want, but the size is scaled to the risk.      

I expect you will run scared when a 10% down year happens and lose a lot of money flipping leverage to other leveraged securities that haven't dipped yet.  We'll just have to see how fast you can learn.  You aren't 25yrs old so it's not OK to get destroyed in a modest down market year.

I'm glad your not my money manger or I would be broke in a year 

You and those 3X Leverage ETF'S. Your going to get hurt sooner or later lol. And Buying a 3X real-estate fund when we are close to a bubble and a market high is a bad mistake. Your like some of my students who just think whatever they buy will go up forever.    

Instead of buying these 3x leverage funds maybe you should be averaging down in COF, DFS and others your down in to get your average down. Just my 2 sense lol 

And I know your gaga over SOXL but don't expect it to hit 100 by Dec. Everyone loves the chip sector and that normally is a sign to well you know

I own SOXL so I am all for it going to the moon, but I cant get overly excited you do      I have it in 2 accounts. One I don't touch and the other I trade and buy at $34 and sell at $48. Rinse and repeat. Back to $34 in 4 weeks 

Anyway I'm just having fun with you 

[ken-do-nim]

> And Buying a 3X real-estate fund when we are close to a bubble and a market high is a bad mistake.

What's done can be easily undone. I do appreciate the perspective.

> Instead of buying these 3x leverage funds maybe you should be averaging down in COF, DFS and others your down in to get your average down. Just my 2 sense lol

Yeah, fair point. I hadn't intended on putting more money into COF, but DFS is only a starter position anyway.

> I own SOXL so I am all for it going to the moon, but I cant get overly excited you do Big Grin I have it in 2 accounts. One I don't touch and the other I trade and buy at $34 and sell at $48. Rinse and repeat. Back to $34 in 4 weeks Big Grin

I've thought about trying to detect such patterns; I can see doing that for instance with NAIL, buy at $66 sell at $82. I haven't had the nerve to try it yet. SOXL has yo-yo'd this year but it's going to take off and not look back sooner or later.

[vbin]

(10-29-2021, 10:28 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 10:19 AM)vbin Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 09:13 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 08:53 AM)stockguru Wrote: Added SBUX

Is the PE under 50 yet?

Sbux to zero. Go to zero sbux.

Admittedly I don't like the coffee; but the chai tea lattes are nice and the food items are actually pretty good.  But zero?  Kinda harsh?

They are running a Ponzi scheme. Take debt, buy back stocks, run loss making stores, expand in loss making regions in the name of growth. Exec comp tide to stock price, how long will this go, who knows. + They are bad and u healthy and unhygienic in every single way I can think form sugar is more addictive than cocaine. + I have had a real bad experience in one of their stores so year. Sbux to zero.

[ken-do-nim]

(10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

One additional comment - my original DFEN purchase was back in 2020 when the stock price was ridiculously low and I knew it (as were most of my leveraged buys), and I've doubled that money.  So I don't think the problem is the purchase, I think the problem is knowing when to exit.