What are your winners & losers today?

[ken-do-nim]

(10-29-2021, 08:33 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I would do both.  Sell small amounts throughout the year.  Just DCA in reverse.  Sell a little more when it is actually up.  I don't know that much about your company, but the sector will bleed hard in a severe market downturn.  That is very likely  to bother you if you are overweight shares?  There will be a storm and I think you should ride it out with some of that money in blue chips or indexes.

Makes sense; thanks! I'm still very overweight in company stock; I've sold about $50k so far this year but that just breaks even with how much goes in (bonus, ESPP). Next year I will ramp it up so that it starts to go down.

[ken-do-nim]

A great day! E*Trade reached $350k.

[fenders53]

I'm at an ATH for the week but not by much. Options made up for some down stocks.  My two largest holdings were pounded this month so I feel fortunate the port isn't down.

[ken-do-nim]

(10-29-2021, 09:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote: My two largest holdings were pounded this month so I feel fortunate the port isn't down.

That is definitely the sign of a well-rounded port.

I've had up days when TECL and SOXL were down, but not when they are pounded.

[fenders53]

(10-29-2021, 09:20 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 09:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote: My two largest holdings were pounded this month so I feel fortunate the port isn't down.

That is definitely the sign of a well-rounded port.

I've had up days when TECL and SOXL were down, but not when they are pounded.

Your overall performance is better than mine even if it would cause me to have mini-strokes lol.  My cash position and ability to play options conservatively is handy.  I can turn off the computer and leave my base positions alone.  Adjust the risk up or down 20% in a few hours depending on whether I want to go play in the woods for a week, or stare at a computer screen all day.  My top two positions were LMT and BMY a month ago.  Scaled out of LMT near even and now down in BMY.  I am lucky the first third of my BMY was purchased in the high 40s.

[ken-do-nim]

My overall performance is much more sedate. My 401k is entirely the S&P 500 index, with a few stumbles mixed in now & then. 17.46% annual return averaging the last 3 years. (Also, it's still not back up to where it was prior to the divorce split.) My company stock, which still outnumbers my E*Trade account 2:1, is back to where it was a year ago. I'm still playing in the little sandbox, eventually it will overtake the others but I'm not sure when.

[fenders53]

(10-30-2021, 09:31 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: My overall performance is much more sedate.  My 401k is entirely the S&P 500 index, with a few stumbles mixed in now & then.  17.46% annual return averaging the last 3 years.  (Also, it's still not back up to where it was prior to the divorce split.)  My company stock, which still outnumbers my E*Trade account 2:1, is back to where it was a year ago.  I'm still playing in the little sandbox, eventually it will overtake the others but I'm not sure when.

Leave some of your port boring and feed it.  SPY might only yield 5% for a decade but it will still be a good anchor.  My 401K SPY position did about nothing from 2000-2010, but I fed it through those down years and came out the other end fine.  Russell 2K was also in the mix but it only outperforms by a little over time.  I think one of those times is coming again as it is way undervalued vs SPY.  Things circle back around.   The faster you can get company stock into indexes the better IMO.  That is the better base position.  

I recently saw a survey of investors.  They expect a return of 17.5% from SPY the next five years. We can hope for that but I doubt it.  That is some serious recency bias.

[ken-do-nim]

So, the trading window for company stock just opened for a 6-7 week period. However, the pattern seems to be that it is lower in the first month (when I've gotten impatient and sold) and goes up near the close of the window. So this time around I'm going to be patient and sell in December. This might just be a small-ish sale to refill my savings accounts though; not sure any will spill into the E*Trade account. We'll see.

Gosh, I'm really looking forward to my 401k finally exceeding where it was prior to the divorce split. It's a psychological thing. If 2022 is similar to 2021, it will happen next year.

[fenders53]

Pretty good jump today to a new port ATH by a margin. Getting close to my next milestone which was actually my EOY 2022 target if you asked me six months ago. I was sideways for a few monthes but creeping higher now as I hold some good companies that are trying to recover finally.

[ken-do-nim]

(11-03-2021, 06:06 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Pretty good jump today to a new port ATH by a margin.  Getting close to my next milestone which was actually my EOY 2022 target if you asked me six months ago.  I was sideways for a few monthes but creeping higher now as I hold some good companies that are trying to recover finally.

Yeah it's been scary good since mid-October.  Hit my EOY 2022 stretch goal today in fact.  Still lots of year left; no clue how high it will go.  Just as you predicted, RETL woke up for the holiday shopping.  I don't have nearly as much as I used to, but still enough to jolt my port the last couple of days.  And SOXL is finally moving again.  Even the income stock CIM was up over 6% today.

[fenders53]

(11-03-2021, 07:56 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(11-03-2021, 06:06 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Pretty good jump today to a new port ATH by a margin.  Getting close to my next milestone which was actually my EOY 2022 target if you asked me six months ago.  I was sideways for a few monthes but creeping higher now as I hold some good companies that are trying to recover finally.

Yeah it's been scary good since mid-October.  Hit my EOY 2022 stretch goal today in fact.  Still lots of year left; no clue how high it will go.  Just as you predicted, RETL woke up for the holiday shopping.  I don't have nearly as much as I used to, but still enough to jolt my port the last couple of days.  And SOXL is finally moving again.  Even the income stock CIM was up over 6% today.

I don't have a clue on retail. They will do OK for holiday shopping.  Most of the majors have no margin of safety if things cool off which is certainly possible.  Earnings overall are decent but it seems obvious 2022 growth is adjusting down.  Nowhere else to invest so it may not matter by next quarter.

[ken-do-nim]

Mixed emotions today.

On the one hand, my taxable account continues to take off like a rocket. I've finally been proven right about semiconductors and SOXL; I just thought it wasn't going to happen until the middle of next year.

But Moderna ... mistake. Ugh. Nvidia had such an amazing day and the ROTH was still negative thanks to Moderna, Upstart, and Trade Desk. Lesson learned.