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This is the closest I ever watched commodities. Oil seems the most complicated. Only a few countries have spare capacity for now.
Lumber is crazy volatile but can self correct quickly. From $400 per 1000BF to $1700+, back to sub 400 and now near 800. Most of that occurred in 6 months. Mills working overtime to shutting down a few weeks to get it back off 400. It's never been this volatile.
Gold in a 5% range because industrial use is minimal.
Steel historically high but iron ore isn't rare. It won't take years to get fairly cheap.
Copper spiked but that is correctable by the time chips allow auto production.
Looks hopeless but the stocks pulled way back. The market knows.
I do think oil will be the last thing to correct. Looks like only a recession could cool it off. I don't expect that.
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10-25-2021, 08:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2021, 08:15 PM by vbin.)
I have calls long and and short both on oxy. I hope for it to not rise too fast by mid of next month and continue to climb higher as we go into 2022. China lockdown slowed down oil a bit.
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Earnings will be interesting. Hard to screw this up unless a small company hedged. My shares will be gone soon. I stopped benefiting over a week ago. No tears lol, if was a good run. All I will have left is ENB.
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10-27-2021, 05:58 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2021, 06:05 AM by fenders53.)
It looks like the bad hedging award finalists are reporting. I would be a disappointed shareholder if I saw those losses right now with oil and natural gas at these levels.
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Banks for sure and it was responsible from their perspective.
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10-29-2021, 08:26 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2021, 08:27 AM by fenders53.)
Chevron looked very strong. Most of them are doing well with the occasional surprise mixed in. It's going to be hard to lose money for awhile. Although I understand they need to spend some CAPEX, their conservative strategy should make it easier for you to hold these. Meaning they shouldn't be in dire straights a year into a down cycle. After the last peak it was breath taking how fast midcap drillers and pipelines were in deep trouble.
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I panic sold some puts today so I can stay engaged in this thread lol. Most of my oil got called away already. The profits were good but I left some on the table. I sold a put in CVX, XOM and XLE. I'll add a little more potential exposure if oil somehow dips 5%. We never know for sure. Long story short I grabbed some cash today and I'll get pulled back into oil shares if XLE hits about 55 or less in the next six weeks.
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I doubt, even if it doee, oil still have space to run