What I Am Buying Today.

[fenders53]

(09-30-2021, 12:02 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:42 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:12 AM)Kerim Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:03 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I'll probably add the money to one of my yield traps later.  Excuse me I meant to say value stocks lol  

Lol -- you must be talking about tobacco! Yes, the regulatory struggles will never end, but dealing with those struggles, in a kind of real sense, IS their business. 

Anyway, I gritted my teeth and bought another pretty big pile of BTI this morning. If I liked it at $40, I must LOVE it at $35! Right?

<glancing around nervously> Right?

I may be the wrong guy to ask.  I am up on tobacco but not until after some judgement errors.  The only advice I have is never ever get FOMO and chase them into the top half of their trading range.  Just let it ride and don't buy a single share after it's annual run.  You also have to be brave enough to buy some in the bottom half.   I always sell a few covered calls when it looks toppy because you know the next government beatdown is coming.  Did that yesterday and it was blind luck, but it usually works out when MO or BTI gets toppy.  Never fool yourself into thinking it's greatly undervalued.  You are getting paid for the risk ad the risk is real.  A high PE is not happening.  IMO you can win the tobacco game if you control your emotions.

My best guess is MO will chop along around 45 for quite some time now.  Low 40s is not out of the question but let's hope not.

I sold puts in MO and BTI so maybe I get exercised.  I'll add some if it dips just a little lower.

If MO stays in this $45-50 range and pays out that nice dividend who cares about all that noise. That's good enough for me. 

I dipped my toes into some tech. Just the ones that are down significantly like TDOC, TSM, QCOM, AMAT and have a reasonable PE . Just 5-10 shares each for now 

TDOC without a PE but that these levels in 5 years it should pay off

The person that bought tobacco 10% higher last month cares.  The whole sector has been a yield trap for over 5 yrs with virtually zero total return.  You gotta pick your spots and know when to add and trim or it's futility.  It would be OK if a mindless S&P fund didn't trounce it and you could screw up your index entry.

I own a lot of tobacco and it's hard work to not lose money.  

Some tech shopping for me.  Not much is truly cheap but you gotta have some in the port.

[ken-do-nim]

I don't have any "dry powder" as the expression goes, but I'm watching JNJ closely. It it falls into the 150s, I will have to cannibalize something else to get some.

[Mr1share]

(09-30-2021, 01:34 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 12:02 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:42 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:12 AM)Kerim Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:03 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I'll probably add the money to one of my yield traps later.  Excuse me I meant to say value stocks lol  

Lol -- you must be talking about tobacco! Yes, the regulatory struggles will never end, but dealing with those struggles, in a kind of real sense, IS their business. 

Anyway, I gritted my teeth and bought another pretty big pile of BTI this morning. If I liked it at $40, I must LOVE it at $35! Right?

<glancing around nervously> Right?

I may be the wrong guy to ask.  I am up on tobacco but not until after some judgement errors.  The only advice I have is never ever get FOMO and chase them into the top half of their trading range.  Just let it ride and don't buy a single share after it's annual run.  You also have to be brave enough to buy some in the bottom half.   I always sell a few covered calls when it looks toppy because you know the next government beatdown is coming.  Did that yesterday and it was blind luck, but it usually works out when MO or BTI gets toppy.  Never fool yourself into thinking it's greatly undervalued.  You are getting paid for the risk ad the risk is real.  A high PE is not happening.  IMO you can win the tobacco game if you control your emotions.

My best guess is MO will chop along around 45 for quite some time now.  Low 40s is not out of the question but let's hope not.

I sold puts in MO and BTI so maybe I get exercised.  I'll add some if it dips just a little lower.

If MO stays in this $45-50 range and pays out that nice dividend who cares about all that noise. That's good enough for me. 

I dipped my toes into some tech. Just the ones that are down significantly like TDOC, TSM, QCOM, AMAT and have a reasonable PE . Just 5-10 shares each for now 

TDOC without a PE but that these levels in 5 years it should pay off

The person that bought tobacco 10% higher last month cares.  The whole sector has been a yield trap for over 5 yrs with virtually zero total return.  You gotta pick your spots and know when to add and trim or it's futility.  It would be OK if a mindless S&P fund didn't trounce it and you could screw up your index entry.

I own a lot of tobacco and it's hard work to not lose money.  

Some tech shopping for me.  Not much is truly cheap but you gotta have some in the port.

Again doesn't matter about the 10%. Do the math and if you hold 5-10 years you will do a hell of a lot better holding and collecting the dividend. 100 shares would get you $360 a year and $3600 over 10 years. The stock would have to go down to $9 for you to lose money   This is not even including dividend raises. So to me its well worth the risk. 

And  which tech did you buy? Let me guess ENPH 

[Mr1share]

What is with all the hype on BMY? I see people buying but I just don't get it. This stock has done nothing over 5 years unless you buy in the mid to low 40's. Last quarter missed by 7 cents and missed revenues by 81.4 million. Seems to to me fair value should be around $45. There operating income over last 10 years is -5.3%. Debt is 45.18 billion.

The Price to Peter Lynch Fair Value Ratio of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co is $45.32

Not sure even with the decline in the stock recently is enough to buy here. $42 maybe.

[fenders53]

(09-30-2021, 02:25 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 01:34 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 12:02 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:42 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:12 AM)Kerim Wrote: Lol -- you must be talking about tobacco! Yes, the regulatory struggles will never end, but dealing with those struggles, in a kind of real sense, IS their business. 

Anyway, I gritted my teeth and bought another pretty big pile of BTI this morning. If I liked it at $40, I must LOVE it at $35! Right?

<glancing around nervously> Right?

I may be the wrong guy to ask.  I am up on tobacco but not until after some judgement errors.  The only advice I have is never ever get FOMO and chase them into the top half of their trading range.  Just let it ride and don't buy a single share after it's annual run.  You also have to be brave enough to buy some in the bottom half.   I always sell a few covered calls when it looks toppy because you know the next government beatdown is coming.  Did that yesterday and it was blind luck, but it usually works out when MO or BTI gets toppy.  Never fool yourself into thinking it's greatly undervalued.  You are getting paid for the risk ad the risk is real.  A high PE is not happening.  IMO you can win the tobacco game if you control your emotions.

My best guess is MO will chop along around 45 for quite some time now.  Low 40s is not out of the question but let's hope not.

I sold puts in MO and BTI so maybe I get exercised.  I'll add some if it dips just a little lower.

If MO stays in this $45-50 range and pays out that nice dividend who cares about all that noise. That's good enough for me. 

I dipped my toes into some tech. Just the ones that are down significantly like TDOC, TSM, QCOM, AMAT and have a reasonable PE . Just 5-10 shares each for now 

TDOC without a PE but that these levels in 5 years it should pay off

The person that bought tobacco 10% higher last month cares.  The whole sector has been a yield trap for over 5 yrs with virtually zero total return.  You gotta pick your spots and know when to add and trim or it's futility.  It would be OK if a mindless S&P fund didn't trounce it and you could screw up your index entry.

I own a lot of tobacco and it's hard work to not lose money.  

Some tech shopping for me.  Not much is truly cheap but you gotta have some in the port.

Again doesn't matter about the 10%. Do the math and if you hold 5-10 years you will do a hell of a lot better holding and collecting the dividend. 100 shares would get you $360 a year and $3600 over 10 years. The stock would have to go down to $9 for you to lose money   This is not even including dividend raises. So to me its well worth the risk. 

And  which tech did you buy? Let me guess ENPH 

MO has had share price drops like that.  The math says I make more monthly income than the dividend not owning it by selling options.   I've done it for years. I do own shares and collect divs though.  Sometimes trim when it gets too expensive.  It won't make sense if you don't understand how conservative option strategies work.     

LOL, believe it or not I don't own many ENPH shares.  I always have a put or three sold so one of these days I am going to wake up with a lot of shares.  I'd like to own a little more GOOGL now, and probably a couple chip stocks.  Mostly I just own QQQ, (which is pretty much just FANG+), then add a few shares to overweight it how I wish.  I can keep the QQQ and adjust the lean from time to time if I care too.  I'd rather just buy tech shares but I am no techie and it is easy to screw up.  Few of the great tech stocks seem truly cheap and it's dangerous to be wrong so small bets outside the index.  When the big one comes I always have cash.  I am not wishing for that because tech is the economy just as much as SPY has always been.  There will be no hiding if the indexes get hit hard.  All we can do is collect dividends and hope.

[Mr1share]

(09-30-2021, 02:47 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 02:25 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 01:34 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 12:02 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 11:42 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I may be the wrong guy to ask.  I am up on tobacco but not until after some judgement errors.  The only advice I have is never ever get FOMO and chase them into the top half of their trading range.  Just let it ride and don't buy a single share after it's annual run.  You also have to be brave enough to buy some in the bottom half.   I always sell a few covered calls when it looks toppy because you know the next government beatdown is coming.  Did that yesterday and it was blind luck, but it usually works out when MO or BTI gets toppy.  Never fool yourself into thinking it's greatly undervalued.  You are getting paid for the risk ad the risk is real.  A high PE is not happening.  IMO you can win the tobacco game if you control your emotions.

My best guess is MO will chop along around 45 for quite some time now.  Low 40s is not out of the question but let's hope not.

I sold puts in MO and BTI so maybe I get exercised.  I'll add some if it dips just a little lower.

If MO stays in this $45-50 range and pays out that nice dividend who cares about all that noise. That's good enough for me. 

I dipped my toes into some tech. Just the ones that are down significantly like TDOC, TSM, QCOM, AMAT and have a reasonable PE . Just 5-10 shares each for now 

TDOC without a PE but that these levels in 5 years it should pay off

The person that bought tobacco 10% higher last month cares.  The whole sector has been a yield trap for over 5 yrs with virtually zero total return.  You gotta pick your spots and know when to add and trim or it's futility.  It would be OK if a mindless S&P fund didn't trounce it and you could screw up your index entry.

I own a lot of tobacco and it's hard work to not lose money.  

Some tech shopping for me.  Not much is truly cheap but you gotta have some in the port.

Again doesn't matter about the 10%. Do the math and if you hold 5-10 years you will do a hell of a lot better holding and collecting the dividend. 100 shares would get you $360 a year and $3600 over 10 years. The stock would have to go down to $9 for you to lose money   This is not even including dividend raises. So to me its well worth the risk. 

And  which tech did you buy? Let me guess ENPH 

MO has had share price drops like that.  The math says I make more monthly income than the dividend not owning it by selling options.   I've done it for years. I do own shares and collect divs though.  Sometimes trim when it gets too expensive.  It won't make sense if you don't understand how conservative option strategies work.     

LOL, believe it or not I don't own many ENPH shares.  I always have a put or three sold so one of these days I am going to wake up with a lot of shares.  I'd like to own a little more GOOGL now, and probably a couple chip stocks.  Mostly I just own QQQ, (which is pretty much just FANG+), then add a few shares to overweight it how I wish.  I can keep the QQQ and adjust the lean from time to time if I care too.  I'd rather just buy tech shares but I am no techie and it is easy to screw up.  Few of the great tech stocks seem truly cheap and it's dangerous to be wrong so small bets outside the index.  When the big one comes I always have cash.  I am not wishing for that because tech is the economy just as much as SPY has always been.  There will be no hiding if the indexes get hit hard.  All we can do is collect dividends and hope.

 Yeah options are just a waste of time for me.  Normally you lose or break even. At least I do    Just not worth all the effort for a few dollars lol 

I do have some calls out there in teach names just for fun. But I only play that side of it. 

And MO is not going to $9 so I don't have much to worry about. I bet it goes to $50 before $40 

I know you like ENPH. Future looks good but not sure earnings can justify even these levels. Under $120 I may buy some. It is on my watch list. Without an infrastructure bill these stocks are ran up in anticipation.  DE and CAT are examples. Both have come down hard.

[fenders53]

(09-30-2021, 02:52 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 02:47 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 02:25 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 01:34 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 12:02 PM)Mr1share Wrote: If MO stays in this $45-50 range and pays out that nice dividend who cares about all that noise. That's good enough for me. 

I dipped my toes into some tech. Just the ones that are down significantly like TDOC, TSM, QCOM, AMAT and have a reasonable PE . Just 5-10 shares each for now 

TDOC without a PE but that these levels in 5 years it should pay off

The person that bought tobacco 10% higher last month cares.  The whole sector has been a yield trap for over 5 yrs with virtually zero total return.  You gotta pick your spots and know when to add and trim or it's futility.  It would be OK if a mindless S&P fund didn't trounce it and you could screw up your index entry.

I own a lot of tobacco and it's hard work to not lose money.  

Some tech shopping for me.  Not much is truly cheap but you gotta have some in the port.

Again doesn't matter about the 10%. Do the math and if you hold 5-10 years you will do a hell of a lot better holding and collecting the dividend. 100 shares would get you $360 a year and $3600 over 10 years. The stock would have to go down to $9 for you to lose money   This is not even including dividend raises. So to me its well worth the risk. 

And  which tech did you buy? Let me guess ENPH 

MO has had share price drops like that.  The math says I make more monthly income than the dividend not owning it by selling options.   I've done it for years. I do own shares and collect divs though.  Sometimes trim when it gets too expensive.  It won't make sense if you don't understand how conservative option strategies work.     

LOL, believe it or not I don't own many ENPH shares.  I always have a put or three sold so one of these days I am going to wake up with a lot of shares.  I'd like to own a little more GOOGL now, and probably a couple chip stocks.  Mostly I just own QQQ, (which is pretty much just FANG+), then add a few shares to overweight it how I wish.  I can keep the QQQ and adjust the lean from time to time if I care too.  I'd rather just buy tech shares but I am no techie and it is easy to screw up.  Few of the great tech stocks seem truly cheap and it's dangerous to be wrong so small bets outside the index.  When the big one comes I always have cash.  I am not wishing for that because tech is the economy just as much as SPY has always been.  There will be no hiding if the indexes get hit hard.  All we can do is collect dividends and hope.

 Yeah options are just a waste of time for me.  Normally you lose or break even. At least I do    Just not worth all the effort for a few dollars lol 

I do have some calls out there in teach names just for fun. But I only play that side of it. 

And MO is not going to $9 so I don't have much to worry about. I bet it goes to $50 before $40 

I know you like ENPH. Future looks good but not sure earnings can justify even these levels. Under $120 I may buy some. It is on my watch list. Without an infrastructure bill these stocks are ran up in anticipation.  DE and CAT are examples. Both have come down hard.

I don't buy options.  I average about $30-35K a year selling them in my boring way. My port isn't large enough to do that with dividends unless I put much of it in yield traps. 

I bought my ENPH shares long ago at a far cheaper price.  Yes it is expensive but it is easy to steal option theta decay from the gamblers up here.

[fenders53]

Added to GOOGLE and restarted a small position in HAS in the closing minute.  I suspect HAS is sitting on bad news.  Last I looked only my solar and NEM was up more than pennies on the day.

[Mr1share]

(09-30-2021, 03:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 02:52 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 02:47 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 02:25 PM)Mr1share Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 01:34 PM)fenders53 Wrote: The person that bought tobacco 10% higher last month cares.  The whole sector has been a yield trap for over 5 yrs with virtually zero total return.  You gotta pick your spots and know when to add and trim or it's futility.  It would be OK if a mindless S&P fund didn't trounce it and you could screw up your index entry.

I own a lot of tobacco and it's hard work to not lose money.  

Some tech shopping for me.  Not much is truly cheap but you gotta have some in the port.

Again doesn't matter about the 10%. Do the math and if you hold 5-10 years you will do a hell of a lot better holding and collecting the dividend. 100 shares would get you $360 a year and $3600 over 10 years. The stock would have to go down to $9 for you to lose money   This is not even including dividend raises. So to me its well worth the risk. 

And  which tech did you buy? Let me guess ENPH 

MO has had share price drops like that.  The math says I make more monthly income than the dividend not owning it by selling options.   I've done it for years. I do own shares and collect divs though.  Sometimes trim when it gets too expensive.  It won't make sense if you don't understand how conservative option strategies work.     

LOL, believe it or not I don't own many ENPH shares.  I always have a put or three sold so one of these days I am going to wake up with a lot of shares.  I'd like to own a little more GOOGL now, and probably a couple chip stocks.  Mostly I just own QQQ, (which is pretty much just FANG+), then add a few shares to overweight it how I wish.  I can keep the QQQ and adjust the lean from time to time if I care too.  I'd rather just buy tech shares but I am no techie and it is easy to screw up.  Few of the great tech stocks seem truly cheap and it's dangerous to be wrong so small bets outside the index.  When the big one comes I always have cash.  I am not wishing for that because tech is the economy just as much as SPY has always been.  There will be no hiding if the indexes get hit hard.  All we can do is collect dividends and hope.

 Yeah options are just a waste of time for me.  Normally you lose or break even. At least I do    Just not worth all the effort for a few dollars lol 

I do have some calls out there in teach names just for fun. But I only play that side of it. 

And MO is not going to $9 so I don't have much to worry about. I bet it goes to $50 before $40 

I know you like ENPH. Future looks good but not sure earnings can justify even these levels. Under $120 I may buy some. It is on my watch list. Without an infrastructure bill these stocks are ran up in anticipation.  DE and CAT are examples. Both have come down hard.

I don't buy options.  I average about $30-35K a year selling them in my boring way. My port isn't large enough to do that with dividends unless I put much of it  in yield traps. 

I bought my ENPH shares long ago at a far cheaper price.  Yes it is expensive but it is easy to steal option theta decay from the gamblers up here.

And if you make 35k a year congrats. Your selling puts aren't you and keeping the premium? But there's also a lot of risk with that, If the stock falls below the break-even price of the assigned shares, losses would occur. No?

I'm dying how you win at this strategy? Maybe post exactly what you are doing for us dumb people like me 

[fenders53]

(09-30-2021, 03:22 PM)And if you make 35k a year congrats. Your selling puts aren\t you and keeping the premium? But there's also a lot of risk with that, If the stock falls below the break-even price of the assigned shares, losses would occur. No? Wrote: I'm dying how you win at this strategy? Maybe post exactly what you are doing for us dumb people like me 

Nothing is risk free.  I've been assigned shares about 40-50 times in my last 1000 trades the past year or so.  I can often avoid it if I choose to.  Sometimes I get stuck buying the very same shares we talk about on the forum here daily, but I picked the entry price.  Today I got paid to commit to buy MO shares 15 days from now for $45.  Maybe I will or maybe I will roll it to a lower price if necessary.  How much did you pay for MO today?  My basis would be abut$44.50 after premium and I am OK with that. I rarely sell puts against stocks I am not very OK with owning. 90% of my trades are boring.  ENPH pays better.   I keep that stuff to a minimum as we never know when the bear comes for real.     

It's a lot like an intro to statistics class but it requires capital and the willingness to put in some time.  Primer youtube videos at least.  It's not for everybody.  The forum has a thread on the subject.

[Kerim]

(09-30-2021, 03:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote: My port isn't large enough to do that with dividends unless I put much of it in yield traps. 

I think you just described my whole DG strategy...

[fenders53]

(09-30-2021, 04:43 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(09-30-2021, 03:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote: My port isn't large enough to do that with dividends unless I put much of it in yield traps. 

I think you just described my whole DG strategy...

I'd like to thank you all for paying your taxes and funding my generous pensions lol.    

My stock port is respectable but three milly was never going to happen.  I mostly invested in SPY and small CAP growth.  A few years ago it occurred to me the SPY Div yield was dropping like a rock.  To get $30K after taxes per million in port value you need an average yield exceeding 3 1/2%.  Now subtract some out for a cash bucket as you should in retirement and this starts looking desperate.  You are stuck chasing too many yield traps to make the average work.

.............. and this is when I knew I had to learn how to steal option premiums from millennials who throw down after watching a 20 minute youtube video.  I didn't make them do it.  




About a third of my retirement port will be in a mix of DGI, UTEs and yield traps.  An option trick allocation until I tire of babysitting it. Add in some safish growth with low dividends and hope for the best.  I like MO and XOM well enough, but I am not going to buy 5000 shares and hope the government doesn't wreck their business model because at times that seems to be the goal.