1 Month Lows

[ken-do-nim]

(09-11-2021, 09:34 AM)bankerboy Wrote: I welcome a 5% or so downturn where you could find some well priced dividend payers for LT holds. Hard to get safe yield above 4% currently...


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ABBV is at 4.85% because it is sinking like a stone ... not sure what 'safe' really means though.  I'm sure the dividend is safe, but the stock price, not so much. Personally, I'd advocate loading up on it now, but it could drop further.

[bankerboy]

(09-11-2021, 10:15 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(09-11-2021, 09:34 AM)bankerboy Wrote: I welcome a 5% or so downturn where you could find some well priced dividend payers for LT holds. Hard to get safe yield above 4% currently...


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ABBV is at 4.85% because it is sinking like a stone ... not sure what 'safe' really means though.  I'm sure the dividend is safe, but the stock price, not so much. Personally, I'd advocate loading up on it now, but it could drop further.

Yep, safe is a relative term but I’m patient! Going to give it a few more weeks before I jump at anything.


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[fenders53]

(09-11-2021, 01:36 PM)bankerboy Wrote:

(09-11-2021, 10:15 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(09-11-2021, 09:34 AM)bankerboy Wrote: I welcome a 5% or so downturn where you could find some well priced dividend payers for LT holds. Hard to get safe yield above 4% currently...


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ABBV is at 4.85% because it is sinking like a stone ... not sure what 'safe' really means though.  I'm sure the dividend is safe, but the stock price, not so much.  Personally, I'd advocate loading up on it now, but it could drop further.

Yep, safe is a relative term but I’m patient! Going to give it a few more weeks before I jump at anything.


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Welcome to the forum bankerboy.

I think a little patience might be rewarded.  ABBV is a beloved DGI stock so waiting for the last nickel of share price might not work out.  It's a real short list of 4% yielders that are likely to grow.  Big pharma shares  are under pressure now.  Same with most defensive stocks.

[ken-do-nim]

So, October is a 3 paycheck month for me, and I'm planning on putting probably $2k of the extra paycheck into the market. With prices so low starting Monday's trading session, I could dip into ye old emergency fund for $2k now, and just replace those funds in October. Tempting...

[fenders53]

That might be good timing. I am feeling little urgency until I see if SPY and QQQ hold support. DOW pretty much rolled over and Russell was not in an uptrend for a long time. I'm not big on technicals but the algos are so it doesn't hurt to pay attention. I want that 5-10% market correction that puts some stocks on a true discount. I am not going to stress missing a couple % pullback. I do think our best shot is SEP-OCT. Inflation may be peaking now and it may look ugly. Add some political fighting about stimulus. Nobody sees a big correction coming so they may buy the dips and this dip fizzles out. We'll be better off if the flyers finally consolidate but it seems impossible.

Anyway this week may provide a clue. Either way a few sectors look good now but I suspect most of us are already invested there.

[bankerboy]

(09-11-2021, 05:54 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-11-2021, 01:36 PM)bankerboy Wrote:

(09-11-2021, 10:15 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(09-11-2021, 09:34 AM)bankerboy Wrote: I welcome a 5% or so downturn where you could find some well priced dividend payers for LT holds. Hard to get safe yield above 4% currently...


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ABBV is at 4.85% because it is sinking like a stone ... not sure what 'safe' really means though.  I'm sure the dividend is safe, but the stock price, not so much.  Personally, I'd advocate loading up on it now, but it could drop further.

Yep, safe is a relative term but I’m patient! Going to give it a few more weeks before I jump at anything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Welcome to the forum bankerboy.

I think a little patience might be rewarded.  ABBV is a beloved DGI stock so waiting for the last nickel of share price might not work out.  It's a real short list of 4% yielders that are likely to grow.  Big pharma shares  are under pressure now.  Same with most defensive stocks.

I tend to agree but believe there will be some market pullback as folks panic about inflation. I watched an economic presentation at a conference Friday and with the growth happening he didn’t seem to concerned about inflationary pressure being a longer term issue, just one of 6 months or less. The market tends to react to inflation negatively so let’s see what this week brings.

Really would like to see it drop to around 100, not sure it can sustain it’s dividend levels either over the long run.

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[fenders53]

I don't see an issue with the dividend. Dividend growth will be dependent on replacing patent loss revenue. They do have a very good pipeline. BTW I don't own a single share. I missed the big dip. I own JNJ and a lot of BMY in this space. IMO ABBV will see 100 if the market struggles. The yield gets very attractive above 5% even if earnings growth is flat for several years, which I expect. PE is already low.

[bankerboy]

(09-12-2021, 07:24 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I don't see an issue with the dividend. Dividend growth will be dependent on replacing patent loss revenue. They do have a very good pipeline. BTW I don't own a single share. I missed the big dip. I own JNJ and a lot of BMY in this space. IMO ABBV will see 100 if the market struggles. The yield gets very attractive above 5% even if earnings growth is flat for several years, which I expect. PE is already low.

I was just reading this article this morning on my phone discussing their dividends hence my comment. It said:


AbbVie paid out 136% of its profit as dividends over the trailing twelve-month period. However, given the circumstances of 2020, this should not be a surprise.
We also measure dividends paid against a company's levered free cash flow to see if enough cash was generated to cover the dividend. AbbVie paid out a conservative 45% of its free cash flow as dividends last year.
It's good to see that while profits did not cover AbbVie's dividends, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. If executives continued paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.


I haven’t verified their articles truthfulness however thru other sources but definitely part of the due diligence process. I’m beginning to really like this stock however!


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[fenders53]

(09-12-2021, 07:40 AM)bankerboy Wrote:

(09-12-2021, 07:24 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I don't see an issue with the dividend.  Dividend growth will be dependent on replacing patent loss revenue.   They do have a very good pipeline.  BTW I don't own a single share.  I missed the big dip.  I own JNJ and a lot of BMY in this space.  IMO ABBV will see 100 if the market struggles.  The yield gets very attractive above 5% even if earnings growth is flat for several years, which I expect.  PE is already low.

I was just reading this article this morning on my phone discussing their dividends hence my comment. It said:


AbbVie paid out 136% of its profit as dividends over the trailing twelve-month period. However, given the circumstances of 2020, this should not be a surprise.
We also measure dividends paid against a company's levered free cash flow to see if enough cash was generated to cover the dividend. AbbVie paid out a conservative 45% of its free cash flow as dividends last year.
It's good to see that while profits did not cover AbbVie's dividends, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. If executives continued paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.


I haven’t verified their articles truthfulness however thru other sources but definitely part of the due diligence process. I’m beginning to really like this stock however!


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When I get a chance I will find a link for you.  A youtube guy who does some extremely thorough cashflow analysis.  CFA and he is VERY good at reading company financials in great detail.  ABBV passes fine.  My concern is 2023 growth is going to be about zero when Humira fades.  Market knows this and hasn't cared, for now.  Doesn't make ABBV overvalued, but it's not a screaming buy at 120 either IMO.  Maybe ABBV does a token div increase for a few years.  So what, the stock is already paying double their peers and long-term will likely grow the same as they do.  One of the better longterm buys in the market until we correct.

Here it is. Warning, he will put you to sleep but he is all numbers, no hype.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUZrvcsMlg4

[bankerboy]

Thanks! This is definitely the stock I’m watching closely. Picked up VZ recently and AbbVie is likely next. Watching 3M, IBM and Amgen as well. Seems like some quality BC dividend payers are looking a bit more attractive these days. Will be interesting to see where it goes.

I do watch FastGraphs YT vids, really enjoy his take on stocks based of valuation and predicted growth. Will likely subscribe to the service in the future once his upgrade comes out.


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[vbin]

Looks like we can add BMY to that list too.

[bankerboy]

(09-13-2021, 10:11 PM)vbin Wrote: Looks like we can add BMY to that list too.

There might be some good buys in big pharmaceutical companies if the government gets its Medicare drug plan in place.


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