1 Month Lows

[stockguru]

I thought I would start a new board and list stocks at 1 month lows. Some good buying opportunities on the rise

But I would not want to be in stocks like PPG, SHW, FIVE, ROST and companies that rely on raw materials We now have rising inflation, covid headwinds and soaring freight costs.
This is going to affect a lot of companies going forward.   

I walked into 2 targets, Rost Stores and Marshall's and a lot of empty shelves and empty freezers. This cant be good! Retailers are having a hard time getting merchandise in. 

1 month lows

PPG
SHW
TJX
ROST
GPS
SWK
COF
DFS
BRK.B
NSC
UNP
NKE
FDX
HRL
ADP
MU
V
LMT
RIO
AFL
AXP
CSX
DD
FIVE
GSK
BMY
HON
NOC
HSY
JNJ
MMM
NVS
VSTO

As you can see there are a lot of good companies on this list. The market may be at or near a all time high but many companies have been hit of late and are not participating. Tech or nothing 

[divmenow]

Nice board. And I agree with a lot you said. SHW warned today and PPG yesterday. With the surge in freight costs is going to also hurt companies like DG and DLTR

But a lot of great companies on that board. I have cash to put to work. I may nibble on some FDX, HRL AXP.

[fenders53]

Great idea for a topic! Being the contrarian I always am .... I am not sure they are good buys because they are at one month lows, but many of them are in fact at least fairly valued. Chuck from Fast Graphs ran a stock screen on youtube (SPY). After eliminating companies with no earnings he still came up with 140 stocks trading at PE 16 or less. Some were from industries that don't command PEs that high, but still there were a lot for good names. Unfortunately we've already invested in a lot of them. The overvaluation is concentrated in the rock star stocks. Stocks like NVDA are awesome. How much are it really worth a year from now?

Anyway I am not holding any large positions in high PE stocks until I give them a chance to dip. For better or worse it's seems wise to not lean into them too hard right now. If I am wrong I am wrong I guess.

Retail is very sketchy for awhile. Some are great at logistics and will do OK. I'm pretty sure a few will come up short and get crushed. Obviously I see HD several times a week. Shelf stockage is not so bad. Nobody wants to order and pay for their Thanksgiving flooring last month. Four month wait for a LOT of custom products because our vendors don't have HD quality logistics. Crazy good spring and then store traffic died. I bet they make earnings but I don't expect amazing guidance. It's just tough to know what the market will determine is a fair multiple for six months of "not bad".

As I mentioned yesterday HRL input costs were insane. Hog prices up 250% for some of the quarter, but you can grow a hog, turkey or chicken in six months or less so it will crash like lumber already did at some point. Lumber crashed from record breaking $1700 per thousand board feet to 400ish where mills shut down for a few weeks. It took about 6 weeks off the peak and retailers have to sell some products at a loss to allow purchase of cheap product to sell at a profit.

Just random thoughts but these are crazy times.

[MrFortune]

A lot of these names are way oversold as well. These are the kind of names I'm looking at. Most RSI are under 30.

Today I actually added to FDX, JNJ, PM and NSC

[vbin]

More monthly lows today I guess? Including jnj.

[fenders53]

(09-10-2021, 11:42 AM)vbin Wrote: More monthly lows today I guess? Including jnj.

I look forward to a real dip and we'll have 500 quality quarterly lows.

[crimsonghost747]

Tech is still flying high but everything else seems to be dipping a bit. It's good.. I do love seeing some red days, it's healthy.

[kblake]

716 1 month lows today. The list is piling up lol

AMGN
ATO
BK
BUD
CCI
DOCU
ETN
HII
ITW
IFF
KR
L
LMT
MRK
NOC
O
PAYX
ROST
TMUS
TWTR
VNO
ZBH

I own a lot of these. Ugh!!

THE LIST IS GETTING LONGER

[fenders53]

I'd never heard of a statistic such as this before this week. That's how spoiled we are.

[ken-do-nim]

This still doesn't (yet) compare to that 3 day plunge back in what, May? My account fell over $30k then. Here we had a bad week, and I'm down (only) $10k.

[fenders53]

(09-10-2021, 06:56 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: This still doesn't (yet) compare to that 3 day plunge back in what, May?  My account fell over $30k then.  Here we had a bad week, and I'm down (only) $10k.

We basically had the equivalent of one pretty severe down day spread out.  The real dip is sector rotation and has been for months.  That is part of being diversified.  That isn't likely to end as the market grabs a different narrative several times a month.  I think next earnings may be less consistent as supply constraints vary.

[bankerboy]

I welcome a 5% or so downturn where you could find some well priced dividend payers for LT holds. Hard to get safe yield above 4% currently...


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