What are your winners & losers today?

[ken-do-nim]

Big up day for TQQQ, TECL, SOXL; big down day for DFEN, STX, and FAS.

In the newly revised ROTH, big up day for TTD, WEBL, & NVDA, down for BA, RETL, and ERX.

[fenders53]

Solar on fire again today. I've given back some gold profits this weeks. Commodities getting thumped, right on cue as added some early this week. The good news is a lot of options expire tomorrow and my covered calls absorbed some of my dips in my industrials etc.

[ken-do-nim]

I should have gone into solar by now. My bad.

[fenders53]

(06-17-2021, 05:59 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I should have gone into solar by now.  My bad.

While I do believe there is a bright future for the eventual winners, they are over-valued and overhyped.  They are just something for traders to move in and out of.  I stick to the currently profitable ones as they are less likely to lose 75% of their value if the political winds change.  If I were more confident I would only own two instead of six names.  The problem is the ones that can 5X are the small ones that can -5X.  No different than buying a tech stock that has been in business for a year and bleeding cash.  

I do own long shares but most of my solar profits are from selling options to the gamblers every time they dip.  The premiums are very good because the stocks swing in a 25% range for no particular reason.  RUN is a good example.  They announced margin pressure like a mentioned a week or too ago.  It's going to happen or they would not have warned.  Two weeks later major brokerages put a screaming buy recommendation on them and raised their price target to double current share price.  A month from now they'll blow earnings and the stock will tumble.  The manipulators will have already executed a swing trade they orchestrated.  I don't like the gamesmanship at all but I don't make the rules.  You can't keep a port full of this stuff and I don't.  There is just no way to manage it short of staring at a monitor and day trading it.

[EricL]

(06-18-2021, 04:27 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(06-17-2021, 05:59 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I should have gone into solar by now.  My bad.

While I do believe there is a bright future for the eventual winners, they are over-valued and overhyped.  They are just something for traders to move in and out of.  I stick to the currently profitable ones as they are less likely to lose 75% of their value if the political winds change.  If I were more confident I would only own two instead of six names.  The problem is the ones that can 5X are the small ones that can -5X.  No different than buying a tech stock that has been in business for a year and bleeding cash.  

I do own long shares but most of my solar profits are from selling options to the gamblers every time they dip.  The premiums are very good because the stocks swing in a 25% range for no particular reason.  RUN is a good example.  They announced margin pressure like a mentioned a week or too ago.  It's going to happen or they would not have warned.  Two weeks later major brokerages put a screaming buy recommendation on them and raised their price target to double current share price.  A month from now they'll blow earnings and the stock will tumble.  The manipulators will have already executed a swing trade they orchestrated.  I don't like the gamesmanship at all but I don't make the rules.  You can't keep a port full of this stuff and I don't.  There is just no way to manage it short of staring at a monitor and day trading it.

I've taken a similar approach. Went with SEDG and ENPH, as they were the two that looked the best to me for earnings and growth. Most of the others were insanely overvalued, while these two at least have PE's under 100. =)

[fenders53]

(06-18-2021, 08:52 AM)EricL Wrote:

(06-18-2021, 04:27 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(06-17-2021, 05:59 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I should have gone into solar by now.  My bad.

While I do believe there is a bright future for the eventual winners, they are over-valued and overhyped.  They are just something for traders to move in and out of.  I stick to the currently profitable ones as they are less likely to lose 75% of their value if the political winds change.  If I were more confident I would only own two instead of six names.  The problem is the ones that can 5X are the small ones that can -5X.  No different than buying a tech stock that has been in business for a year and bleeding cash.  

I do own long shares but most of my solar profits are from selling options to the gamblers every time they dip.  The premiums are very good because the stocks swing in a 25% range for no particular reason.  RUN is a good example.  They announced margin pressure like a mentioned a week or too ago.  It's going to happen or they would not have warned.  Two weeks later major brokerages put a screaming buy recommendation on them and raised their price target to double current share price.  A month from now they'll blow earnings and the stock will tumble.  The manipulators will have already executed a swing trade they orchestrated.  I don't like the gamesmanship at all but I don't make the rules.  You can't keep a port full of this stuff and I don't.  There is just no way to manage it short of staring at a monitor and day trading it.

I've taken a similar approach. Went with SEDG and ENPH, as they were the two that looked the best to me for earnings and growth. Most of the others were insanely overvalued, while these two at least have PE's under 100. =)

Those are two of the best.  CSIQ is another favorite of mine.  They have a much lower PE.  RUN has been fun but only because I am winning.  I am comfortable holding at least a small position in these.  I own a few dicier ones but only like  $500 or $1000 until I see a few more quarterlies or a real move from the politicians that assures them a few years of solid cash flow.  (which I see as probable but nothing is certain).

[EricL]

I didn't like the growth history of CSIQ compared with ENPH and SEDG. They seem to be more consistent with higher growth, so I'm willing to pay up for that.

   

   

   

[fenders53]

(06-18-2021, 09:22 AM)EricL Wrote: I didn't like the growth history of CSIQ compared with ENPH and SEDG. They seem to be more consistent with higher growth. I'm willing to pay up for that, especially since this is my speculative account.

Agreed.  Their expansion in progress this year is what attracts me.  I've been selling puts since I started researching them last year.  It's been easy money most of the time but I got exercised at $40 a month or so ago so I have 100 long shares now.  I keep myself at risk of owing a couple hundred more most of the time.  I've milked a lot of premiums so I would have a real entry basis around $25.  It works until it doesn't Eric.  The premiums I make off ENPH and SEDGE have been nuts, but when I get bit I'll instantly own most shares than I care to.  This is about the riskiest thing I do.  I've practiced this a thousand times with much cheap shares getting as comfortable as possible.  If you ever hear me say "well I just bought $100K in solar today", this is how it happened.   

To be honest the sane way to play solar is what we already do, own full positions in the green leaning UTEs.

[ken-do-nim]

Well today was awful. The less said the better.

[fenders53]

My port is down .6% or so today. It was hectic as I had MANY option contracts expiring. Sometimes I can roll forward a week or a month and get more cash today and lower the strike I might have to pay if the market keeps dropping. Sometimes I just have to ride it out another month and hope the stock recovers a bit. Solar stocks-GNRC and my beloved VSTO had a good day but it couldn't save me. Most of the port was red and I bought a few shares here and there on stocks I average into slowly because they are overpriced IMO. A lot of orders didn't execute but I just nibble through corrections until they get real and I can buy serious shares. Always having some cash takes the sting out of down days.

A few of my industrials are down pretty hard and I didn't expect it. My port is boring enough to take the sting off. This is nothing like a real dip so far. If that comes I will feel it with everyone else here.

[ken-do-nim]

I will say today would have been a lot worse if I was as leveraged as I used to be. But I was still down 2.99% in my taxable and 2.71% in my ROTH; $8000 in all. Ouchies!!!

[fenders53]

(06-18-2021, 09:20 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I will say today would have been a lot worse if I was as leveraged as I used to be.  But I was still down 2.99% in my taxable and 2.71% in my ROTH; $8000 in all.  Ouchies!!!

You are still about 2X beta the market.  That's works on a run but not where I can be this close to retirement.  I could see a few more down days but all the FED did is threaten and that will wear off when earning come in hot which is highly likely.