What are your winners & losers today?

[EricL]

I don't think any changes are needed. If people aren't interested, they don't need to read the thread.

[ken-do-nim]

Okay, well I'd wade back into the topic.

One recent bright spot in my portfolio has been OXLC. With a dividend of 11% you don't expect much price movement, but it seems to be the beneficiary of all this inflation uncertainty. It has been zooming up, and I'm now at a whopping 21.87% increase since my mid-March purchase; about half that in the last week I think.

Over in the ROTH, newcomer LYB easily won the day. I'm supposed to do the Dividend Capture strategy, but I might just fall in love with this one

SOXL and RETL were the hard-luck losers after WEBL and NAIL tripped their circuit breakers. I don't have circuit breakers on SOXL and RETL they always bounce back.

[fenders53]

It's fine. Mike is correct it's counter-productive to obsess over daily gains, but a comment of the day on something that moved significantly enough is entertaining. I'll read the thread and post now and then.

Port down a bit today. Solar got hit some. MRK spun off OGN today. I wasn't paying attention and didn't even know it was coming.

[ken-do-nim]

I've been looking to pick up the solar ETF TAN but I'm not sure when it's the right time to get in.

[fenders53]

(06-03-2021, 07:29 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I've been looking to pick up the solar ETF TAN but I'm not sure when it's the right time to get in.

Nope.  You want to chat a basket of Solar we can.  TAN is overpriced and has some trash in it.  I think I paid 25ish for TAN last year, give or take.

[ken-do-nim]

Okay, what's a great solar stock to get then?

[fenders53]

(06-03-2021, 07:33 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Okay, what's a great solar stock to get then?

OK, I'm not sharing my sketchier ones because I'm afraid you'll buy shares at 831AM tomorrow.     Some of these are in a better price range at the moment.  Do a little reading and catch their stories.  I'll explain a few of the near-term risks if you see any that interest you initially.  I am hoping for a dip so I can add but I have decent position in solar right now.  Some I won't add to without another dip.

SUNRUN- RUN
Canadian Solar- CSIQ
SEDG
ENPH

And some of the UTEs are solar plays to a lesser degree, but will be there growth driver for years.  Same list I always hype.

[ken-do-nim]

Cool, I'll keep those 4 in mind!

*****

It was SOXL / TECL / TQQQ day! Good times Still not at portfolio all-time high but inching closer.

[fenders53]

(06-04-2021, 03:31 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Cool, I'll keep those 4 in mind!

*****

It was SOXL / TECL / TQQQ day!  Good times  Still not at portfolio all-time high but inching closer.

They are facing some margin pressures in the near-term.  Like most everything else, commodity prices are throwing a wrench into projections.  But these are solar picks that should remain profitable, and some even have reasonable PEs now.  Some were really cheap before they launched last year.  They are also names the analysts and media like when they get in a solar hyping mood.  I like the outlook for the sector but in the end only a few will dominate.  Don't be afraid to trim if you get lucky and one doubles for you.  No different than oil companies IMO.  A small one might get you the big score, but when things go bad the strong ones will live and the little ones will crash horribly when debt gets hard to manage.  

My port off of the ATH a bit.  Defensive plays were out of style most of the week.

[fenders53]

I finally got around to checking out the NAIL annual report. I'd be cautious with position size if I got in right now but I am mostly bullish. I was concerned they had a large position in the raw materials suppliers like lumber mills but they don't. They are into retail suppliers like Jeld-Wen, Masonite and Mohawk and they are all doing well with a huge backlog to deliver orders. 50% in homebuilders and they should be good the next few years, though much of the good news is definitely in the stock prices already. Same with HD and LOW. Things are leveling off but they will be fine.

A lot of moving parts right now. Interest rates need to stay low. Lumber futures are finally crashing for July but the channel is already stuffed with record high priced materials. Some are up 400% since last summer when you couldn't buy some of it even if you wanted to. Around here a construction bid is good for about 5 days. Have to lock in the financing fast so the smaller builders can lock in the materials or it's back to negotiations. Some of the small contractors I deal with at work are cancelling contracts they lined up over the winter. They can't do the job for free, and most customers aren't going to pay triple for materials if they can possibly delay the project. This will probably solve itself in six months but the 2021 construction season is over in much of the country where the big money jobs are located. It's going to be interesting to watch housing start numbers going forward.

[ken-do-nim]

(06-06-2021, 06:39 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I finally got around to checking out the NAIL annual report.  I'd be cautious with position size if I got in right now but I am mostly bullish.  I was concerned they had a large position in the raw materials suppliers like lumber mills but they don't.  They are into retail suppliers like Jeld-Wen, Masonite and Mohawk and they are all doing well with a huge backlog to deliver orders.  50% in homebuilders and they should be good the next few years, though much of the good news is definitely in the stock prices  already.  Same with HD and LOW.  Things are leveling off but they will be fine.  

A lot of moving parts right now.  Interest rates need to stay low.  Lumber futures are finally crashing for July but the channel is already stuffed with record high priced materials.  Some are up 400% since last summer when you couldn't buy some of it even if you wanted to.  Around here a construction bid is good for about 5 days.  Have to lock in the financing fast so the smaller builders can lock in the materials or it's back to negotiations.  Some of the small contractors I deal with at work are cancelling contracts they lined up over the winter.  They can't do the job for free, and most customers aren't going to pay triple for materials if they can possibly delay the project.  This will probably solve itself in six months but the 2021 construction season is over in much of the country where the big money jobs are located.  It's going to be interesting to watch housing start numbers going forward.

I appreciate your research.  I will probably move back into it soon, but at a normal position's value, not the oversized amount I had in it before.

[fenders53]

Short of a market correction I don't think the major holdings dip much over 10%, but that's a fairly hard hit at triple leverage. You bought NAIL low and rode it up and that's great. Showing up late to cyclicals and commodities is dangerous. I've been bitten for sure and that is why my advice will always lean cautious. I'd just watch the housing starts and mortgage rates. Even a 10% move in a quarter and these stocks fly or die in a hurry. If the market gets hit this summer NAIL is probably a great buy for a year.