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(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.
Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done. You have to find them early. I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite. I never had a problem with the bumpy ride. The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
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(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.
Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done. You have to find them early. I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite. I never had a problem with the bumpy ride. The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
sometimes there are well established companies that go through some kind of falling out/growing/consolidation pains or whatever, but still a sound business overall--an accumulation phase occurs for those that are patient with time on their hands.
most people are not looking to leave millions behind but to live a comfortable retirement, most don't have an opportunity for various reasons to save millions in their working careers--just doesn't work out that way.
and it's true i'd say one only needs 2 to 4 great investments--HOWEVER--one has to be willing to accumulate--for the most part 500 to 2k dollars is not going to just get it done--one has to be willing to invest thousands and thousands more into an equity.
i'm not 100% sure i'll have those 2 to 4 great investments but i'm sure i'll have quite a few good solid investments that i keep nibbling at over time--it's okay to be average i don't need to be a home run hitter
this is what i do, though....i pick a goal and go for it
for example
assets--to go up
investments--to go up
liabilities--to go down
i'll pick a age or calendar year for a goal
an "x" amount of assets by this "age or year"
an "x" amount of investments by this "age or year"
an "x" amount of liabilities by this "age or year"
then when i get to a certain point, another goal begins
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(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.
Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done. You have to find them early. I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite. I never had a problem with the bumpy ride. The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
It's actually something that aggravates me. Everybody is Nostradamus two decades after the fact lol.
"Just hold quality companies long term and you'll be rich!" Yeah well maybe you will and maybe you won't. There is no guarantee of that.
I held three of the "Four Horseman" in the a 1990s. MSFT, CSCO, INTC, DELL. It was truly the FANG of the day. Absolutely dominant names that owned their sectors! AMZN was an overpriced joke meme stock about to lose 95% of it's market Cap in a year or two. I made a 5X or so on MSFT, INTC, CSCO, then lost a 4X a couple years later. Also owned the future rock stars like JDSU. Some other huge name techs like Nortel Networks, Motorola, Lucent etc. Half of them filed BK or close enough. CSCO, INTC and DELL never recovered to this day 20 years ago. I held some of them a VERY long time. Transferred some of the smoldering remains to JNJ and XEL. Glad I did but it took a long time to get even. Just lucky I didn't move it to different dogs.
So just spare me with the profound hold no matter what narrative and it's all good words because you can't back the statement up without cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight. The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually. I will buy some high PEs in moderation. I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades.
Riding a triple leveraged ETF too long will yield the exact same result at some point if one does not have the good sense to take a profit and hide some of it in something stable for years when necessary. My biggest concern personally is hiding places are VERY hard to find. Half the premiere Aristocrats are arguably no more safe given their current valuations. They were not valued like this when the tech bubble crashed in 2000. Not even remotely close in most cases.
Fun thread. It is better than "I bought 10 shares of this or that today". That thread is good for some socializing though. It keeps us engaged. The place would die without it.
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(04-11-2021, 03:44 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.
Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done. You have to find them early. I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite. I never had a problem with the bumpy ride. The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
It's actually something that aggravates me. Everybody is Nostradamus two decades after the fact lol.
"Just hold quality companies long term and you'll be rich!" Yeah well maybe you will and maybe you won't. There is no guarantee of that.
I held three of the "Four Horseman" in the a 1990s. MSFT, CSCO, INTC, DELL. It was truly the FANG of the day. Absolutely dominant names that owned their sectors! AMZN was an overpriced joke meme stock about to lose 95% of it's market Cap in a year or two. I made a 5X or so on MSFT, INTC, CSCO, then lost a 4X a couple years later. Also owned the future rock stars like JDSU. Some other huge name techs like Nortel Networks, Motorola, Lucent etc. Half of them filed BK or close enough. CSCO, INTC and DELL never recovered to this day 20 years ago. I held some of them a VERY long time. Transferred some of the smoldering remains to JNJ and XEL. Glad I did but it took a long time to get even. Just lucky I didn't move it to different dogs.
So just spare me with the profound hold no matter what narrative and it's all good words because you can't back the statement up without cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight. The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually. I will buy some high PEs in moderation. I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades.
Riding a triple leveraged ETF too long will yield the exact same result at some point if one does not have the good sense to take a profit and hide some of it in something stable for years when necessary. My biggest concern personally is hiding places are VERY hard to find. Half the premiere Aristocrats are arguably no more safe given their current valuations. They were not valued like this when the tech bubble crashed in 2000. Not even remotely close in most cases.
Fun thread. It is better than "I bought 10 shares of this or that today". That thread is good for some socializing though. It keeps us engaged. The place would die without it.
If my triple leveraged sell prices trip and nothing else looks good to invest in, I'll probably find a short term bond fund like HOBIX to park my money in. 5.75% yield, in the 2020 drop it went from 10.27 to 8 which isn't too bad. However, in a prolonged decay like 2007, it might just be better to stay in cash honestly.
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(04-11-2021, 12:34 PM)rayray Wrote: (04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.
Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done. You have to find them early. I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite. I never had a problem with the bumpy ride. The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
sometimes there are well established companies that go through some kind of falling out/growing/consolidation pains or whatever, but still a sound business overall--an accumulation phase occurs for those that are patient with time on their hands.
most people are not looking to leave millions behind but to live a comfortable retirement, most don't have an opportunity for various reasons to save millions in their working careers--just doesn't work out that way.
and it's true i'd say one only needs 2 to 4 great investments--HOWEVER--one has to be willing to accumulate--for the most part 500 to 2k dollars is not going to just get it done--one has to be willing to invest thousands and thousands more into an equity.
i'm not 100% sure i'll have those 2 to 4 great investments but i'm sure i'll have quite a few good solid investments that i keep nibbling at over time--it's okay to be average i don't need to be a home run hitter
this is what i do, though....i pick a goal and go for it
for example
assets--to go up
investments--to go up
liabilities--to go down
i'll pick a age or calendar year for a goal
an "x" amount of assets by this "age or year"
an "x" amount of investments by this "age or year"
an "x" amount of liabilities by this "age or year"
then when i get to a certain point, another goal begins
Given that I can't control the market, the only goals I can make for this year are:
* Move $35k-$50k of my company stock over to my E*Trade account. Next year I could probably do $100k and the taxes might be the same. Some of my original shares were bought two decades ago when it was single digits.
* Increase my overall taxable portfolio yield to 2% and keep it there (it currently sits at 1.94%).
* Shrink my overall holdings down a bit more.
* Sell some more stuff on eBay and move the money over. Probably after the stamp book, my baseball card collection from when I was a kid.
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(04-11-2021, 04:37 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (04-11-2021, 03:44 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote: (04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.
Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done. You have to find them early. I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite. I never had a problem with the bumpy ride. The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
It's actually something that aggravates me. Everybody is Nostradamus two decades after the fact lol.
"Just hold quality companies long term and you'll be rich!" Yeah well maybe you will and maybe you won't. There is no guarantee of that.
I held three of the "Four Horseman" in the a 1990s. MSFT, CSCO, INTC, DELL. It was truly the FANG of the day. Absolutely dominant names that owned their sectors! AMZN was an overpriced joke meme stock about to lose 95% of it's market Cap in a year or two. I made a 5X or so on MSFT, INTC, CSCO, then lost a 4X a couple years later. Also owned the future rock stars like JDSU. Some other huge name techs like Nortel Networks, Motorola, Lucent etc. Half of them filed BK or close enough. CSCO, INTC and DELL never recovered to this day 20 years ago. I held some of them a VERY long time. Transferred some of the smoldering remains to JNJ and XEL. Glad I did but it took a long time to get even. Just lucky I didn't move it to different dogs.
So just spare me with the profound hold no matter what narrative and it's all good words because you can't back the statement up without cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight. The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually. I will buy some high PEs in moderation. I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades.
Riding a triple leveraged ETF too long will yield the exact same result at some point if one does not have the good sense to take a profit and hide some of it in something stable for years when necessary. My biggest concern personally is hiding places are VERY hard to find. Half the premiere Aristocrats are arguably no more safe given their current valuations. They were not valued like this when the tech bubble crashed in 2000. Not even remotely close in most cases.
Fun thread. It is better than "I bought 10 shares of this or that today". That thread is good for some socializing though. It keeps us engaged. The place would die without it.
If my triple leveraged sell prices trip and nothing else looks good to invest in, I'll probably find a short term bond fund like HOBIX to park my money in. 5.75% yield, in the 2020 drop it went from 10.27 to 8 which isn't too bad. However, in a prolonged decay like 2007, it might just be better to stay in cash honestly.
It's tougher now for sure. For 90% of my investing career cash or extremely short term bonds would get you 2% with next to zero inflation. It was better than nothing as you never completely missed out on a dip, but it was foolish if you were young and had the ability to commit new money. Every year had a half decent dip in equities and you could nibble a few bargains at some point. If you are young and have a weekly flow of new investment money, then maybe any cash position is unnecessary. I did that for ten years but smelled the GFC coming.
The day will come again when a bond fund is actually a good hedge against equities. I think that day may be a year or two away though. Maybe even longer. Being down 10%+ of my capital in a bond fund with a 3-5% yield doesn't meet my goals if I am hiding in bonds. Being down 10% in a long term safe bond that doesn't even yield inflation rate is even less attractive at the moment. This is exactly why very mediocre stocks with a sub 2% div have run up in the opinion of most.
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" The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually. I will buy some high PEs in moderation. I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades."
So true.
Had you purchased a little earlier in the 90s at a little better valuation, you would have been able to hold those trades in profit the entire ride-up and down to the finish line.
Quality stocks bought at reasonable/low valuations make the holding period much easier. Multiple losers can be expected over a lifetime of investing. 2 home runs washes away any temporary sting along the way.
Of course this is all benefitted by what I have learned along the way. I was self taught as my Dad was into real estate and nobody could provide any stock investing guidance.
I DID have those home runs in the 1980s but did not know how to hold onto them (impatient). My small 5K investment in KO and MCD would have become around 5M today (with 110K+ annual dividend) had I left them alone.
Summation: buy good companies at good valuations and let time be the wind at your back.
It is the best that anybody can do long term.
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(04-12-2021, 06:40 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Of course this is all benefitted by what I have learned along the way. I was self taught as my Dad was into real estate and nobody could provide any stock investing guidance.
I DID have those home runs in the 1980s but did not know how to hold onto them (impatient). My small 5K investment in KO and MCD would have become around 5M today (with 110K+ annual dividend) had I left them alone.
Summation: buy good companies at good valuations and let time be the wind at your back.
It is the best that anybody can do long term.
My Dad is embarrassed to talk about money, and every time I bring up that I'm starting to do well, he just says money is meaningless. I get the investing mojo from my Mom's side of the family.
That's quite a wow on Coca Cola and McDonald's. I have a similar story with my early investments in Apple, Netflix, Tesla and Amazon that I didn't hold on to either.
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04-12-2021, 08:25 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2021, 08:28 AM by fenders53.)
My father never had any real money. He just worked hard and was a good provider. He didn't understand investing but he knew I was gonna do OK.
I wish you guys could meet my 82yr old mother. She isn't wealthy but she does OK. She invested some through a broker and he got her out timely around 2000. She complains a lot about CD rates. I cringe when she wishes for 15% treasuries lol. She feels sorry for me because I have to work at HD with a sore back. She wants to loan me money until I am 60. I finally pulled up my brokerage account on her computer and told her I might be OK lol.
I learned to invest from an Army peer. He poured a ton of money into a mutual fund some guy named Peter Lynch managed. That was a score! He started an investment club and I learned a lot. He was a Boston U grad BTW. About the smartest guy I ever met.
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Looks like the daily winner was BABA up 9%. A few of my precious metals stocks down 1 1/2%. Flat day for the port.
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Your mother sounds sweet. She's right; CD rates are terrible!
My hero of the day was, of all stocks, HRZN, one of the ones I bought for its dividend (7.63%). I'm up 10% on it overall, so I'm very excited over this find.
Today was not a good day for SOXL though, who triple magnified TSM's bad day who is right behind it as the two hard luck losers of the day.
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(04-12-2021, 03:03 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Looks like the daily winner was BABA up 9%. A few of my precious metals stocks down 1 1/2%. Flat day for the port.
9%, wow! Even with triple leveraged funds I rarely see 9% swings either way. Congrats.
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