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02-15-2021, 08:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2021, 08:38 PM by ken-do-nim.)
So far, the very best dividend growth stock I can find is BroadCom (AVGO). From a growth perspective it blows even JNJ out of the water (over 3x price increase in the last 5 years) and even with the sky high price the dividend is still 2.96%. It was a considerably higher percentage the last time I looked but the price keeps heading northwards.
(it is also undoubtedly the main reason my 3x fund SOXL is amazing)
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(02-15-2021, 08:36 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: So far, the very best dividend growth stock I can find is BroadCom (AVGO). From a growth perspective it blows even JNJ out of the water (over 3x price increase in the last 5 years) and even with the sky high price the dividend is still 2.96%. It was a considerably higher percentage the last time I looked but the price keeps heading northwards.
(it is also undoubtedly the main reason my 3x fund SOXL is amazing)
JNJ is one of the biggest DGI winners from my generation. That's where you park your boring money now.
AVGO should be a winner for the next decade and will be one of my core holdings. I think we'll be even happier if we save some dry powder to add on a pullback. The market is hot and so is the sector. I'm not expecting a big pullback for AVGO anytime soon.
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Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
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Ken-do-nim
You've got my interest on SOXL. I will check performance during rough periods for semis and consider trading it. Obviously the past year has been ideal and AVGO has been a factor. The semis do seem less cyclical now. I keep reading that anyhow. Maybe it really is different this time. That can be an expensive belief lol.
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(02-15-2021, 09:46 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
I haven't learned Portfolio Visualizer yet and I don't know what a "timing portfolio" is, but I don't exactly understand your point, unless it is just "Hey, JNJ has been pretty good the last 22 years." I'm not knocking it, I just think AVGO has eclipsed it.
Let's say you had $10,000 just 5 years ago. Had you invested in SHOP @ $28.21, you would now have $520,503. But that doesn't mean that investing in Shopify is a good investment now either. You can only make so much of past performance.
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(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (02-15-2021, 09:46 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
I haven't learned Portfolio Visualizer yet and I don't know what a "timing portfolio" is, but I don't exactly understand your point, unless it is just "Hey, JNJ has been pretty good the last 22 years." I'm not knocking it, I just think AVGO has eclipsed it.
Let's say you had $10,000 just 5 years ago. Had you invested in SHOP @ $28.21, you would now have $520,503. But that doesn't mean that investing in Shopify is a good investment now either. You can only make so much of past performance.
I'll play Switzerland here since both of you are valuable members of the forum.
Portfolio visualizer is a slick online tool. It's good for back testing an investment theory. One really should back-test their core positions. It's an easy google search.
JNJ was my largest non mutual fund holding for 20 years. Still looks better than 90% of the market if risk/reward matters. It likely has a spot in my port for another decade.
AVGO is better compared to a major large cap tech stock. Pull up a 20 year chart on MSFT, INTC, CSCO. I agree that AVGO looks very good here on valuation. Just know that if you pay too much you won't likely get by with it. We never no where the valuation line is but it is there. There is always another company trying to dethrone the last decade's king. They may or may not disrupt them.
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(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (02-15-2021, 09:46 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
I haven't learned Portfolio Visualizer yet and I don't know what a "timing portfolio" is, but I don't exactly understand your point, unless it is just "Hey, JNJ has been pretty good the last 22 years." I'm not knocking it, I just think AVGO has eclipsed it.
Let's say you had $10,000 just 5 years ago. Had you invested in SHOP @ $28.21, you would now have $520,503. But that doesn't mean that investing in Shopify is a good investment now either. You can only make so much of past performance.
The point is that of all the names listed in this thread, except AVGO, were outperformed by a much simpler strategy. Additionally, with MUCH less risk. Point being, do you think you would have been able to dig out AVGO or SHOP BEFORE they exploded? History says not likely. This is all offered as education, do not fall in love with a stock or startegy to the exclusion of all else. Keep an open mind. Here are the results from a portfoilio of the names in this thread, equally weighted not including recent flyers-AVGO and SHOP. Only you can decide if that looks good to you but I will tell that CAGR/Max drawdown is supposed to be a positive number-LOL
Portfolio Returns
$10,000 Initial Balance
$79,538 Final Balance
9.40% CAGR
32.52% Best Year
-16.12% Worst Year
-24.55% Max. Drawdown
0.67 Sharpe Ratio
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(02-16-2021, 12:02 PM)NilesMike Wrote: (02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (02-15-2021, 09:46 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Portfolio Returns JNJ dividends reinvested 1998-2020
Portfolio performance statistics
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal. CAGR Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe
Portfolio 1 $10,000 $86,638 9.81% 34.62% -7.88% -32.51% 0.52
Performance statistics for the timing portfolio #1 1998-2020
Portfolio Initial Bal Final Bal CAGR Stdev Best Year Worst Year Max. Drawdown Sharpe Ratio
Model #1 $10,000 $159,670 12.80% 8.71% 49.40% -3.09% -8.89% 1.21
The power of Portfolio Visualizer. Do your homework peeps.
I haven't learned Portfolio Visualizer yet and I don't know what a "timing portfolio" is, but I don't exactly understand your point, unless it is just "Hey, JNJ has been pretty good the last 22 years." I'm not knocking it, I just think AVGO has eclipsed it.
Let's say you had $10,000 just 5 years ago. Had you invested in SHOP @ $28.21, you would now have $520,503. But that doesn't mean that investing in Shopify is a good investment now either. You can only make so much of past performance.
The point is that of all the names listed in this thread, except AVGO, were outperformed by a much simpler strategy. Additionally, with MUCH less risk. Point being, do you think you would have been able to dig out AVGO or SHOP BEFORE they exploded? History says not likely. This is all offered as education, do not fall in love with a stock or startegy to the exclusion of all else. Keep an open mind. Here are the results from a portfoilio of the names in this thread, equally weighted not including recent flyers-AVGO and SHOP. Only you can decide if that looks good to you but I will tell that CAGR/Max drawdown is supposed to be a positive number-LOL
Portfolio Returns
$10,000 Initial Balance
$79,538 Final Balance
9.40% CAGR
32.52% Best Year
-16.12% Worst Year
-24.55% Max. Drawdown
0.67 Sharpe Ratio
I assume you have this saved so please throw AVGO in the mix. It's not a recent flyer by any stretch. Broadcom has been a solid tech for about a decade. Before that it was treading water for years.
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With AVGO the results are from 9/2009-1/2021
14.22 CAGR
-13.21 Drawdown
W/O AVGO same time frame
11.95 CAGR
-12.58 Drawdown
SPY same time frame
14.66 CAGR
-19.43 Drawdown
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02-16-2021, 01:57 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2021, 01:59 PM by fenders53.)
Ken
On another note you have commented you dont understand my conservative options strategy which isn't complicated. You hold a number of leveraged ETFs. The reality is you are blindly playing options. It's all good when you are winning. If the SOXX holdings go completely sideways for a year you are even plus dividends. Just wait if out. SOXL is 3X leveraged and constantly buying those simple options you don't understand. They expire worthless every week and sideways is a loss. No crash required. The capital just bleeds away. Most leveraged ETFS just go away eventually. I believe SOXL will do fine for awhile. Don't be afraid to take profits along the way.
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That makes a lot of sense. Yes, I've read that the market needs to be +5% for leveraged funds to break even. I will have to figure out when to take profits.
Back to the thread's main topic, "Best one to cite as an example", I believe there are two categories. The first is "Best one to cite as an example of dividend growth stock", which I claim used to be JNJ and is now AVGO. The second is "Best one to cite as an example of a vast improvement over bank interest yet with a relatively stable price." That I *think* is AT&T, which seems to have stabilized at $29/share and pays that sweet 7% dividend. Sure I love NLY with its 10% yield, and it has been inching higher ever since the March 2020 drop, but I can't say I would be confident in putting large amounts of money into it.
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The high div game is even more tricky. When you get bored practice punching T, MO and NYL into portfolio analyzer and check out total return. Pick some assorted periods like 1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr. Stabilized for a couple months in a strong bull market doesn't offer too much assurance. It doesn't matter if you are willing to close your eyes and hold, and not worry that that you gave up more than all of the dividends back on paper this year.
I do own T and MO. I'm real careful when I add and sell covered calls when it runs a few bucks for extra income.
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